The objectives were to analyze the dynamics of land use and land cover of the Amazon biome over time through spatial modeling, and project its future scenario with the Land Change Modeler (LCM) module. This analysis was based on 1985, 2014 and 2017 land cover data from the MapBiomas project, which was associated with socioeconomic explanatory variables based on the Cramer-V test. Results showed that the Forest Formation class occupied 3,844,800.75 km² (91.20%) in 1985, and in 2014, there was a reduction to 3,452,129.25 km² (81.89%). The pasture class had an initial area of 71,046.50 km² (1.69%), and in 2014, there was an expressive increase to 437,670.00 km² (10.38%). The analysis made it possible to verify that Forest Formation and Pastures were the classes that suffered the most changes, followed by the Annual and Perennial Culture and Mosaic of Agriculture and Pasture. The projected land use and coverage for 2044 suggests that there will be a reduction in Forest Formation due to a significant increase in the Pasture class. The simulations foreseen in this work are an important tool that can provide subsidies for supporting territorial planning in the region, public policies, and encouragement of best practices with a reduced impact in pasture areas.

In Brazil, coffee leaf rust (CLR), caused by the fungus Hemileia vastatrix, was first detected in Coffea arabica in January of 1970 in southern Bahia. Now widespread across all cultivation areas, the disease poses a significant threat to coffee production, causing losses of 30–50%. In this context, the objective of this study was to identify and quantify the different classes of occurrence of CLR in areas apt and restricted to the cultivation of Arabica coffee in Brazil for a more informed decision regarding the cultivar to be implanted. The areas of climatic aptitude for Arabica coffee were defined, and then, the climatic favorability for the occurrence of CLR in these areas was evaluated based on climatic data from TerraClimate from 1992 to 2021. The apt areas, apt with some type of irrigation, restricted, and with some type of restriction for the cultivation of Arabica coffee add up to 16.34% of the Brazilian territory. Within this 16.34% of the area of the Brazilian territory, the class of climatic favorability for the occurrence of CLR with greater representation is the favorable one. Currently, the disease is controlled with the use of protective and systemic fungicides, including copper, triazoles, and strobilurins, which must be applied following decision rules that vary according to the risk scenario, and according to the use of resistant cultivars. This study provides a basis for choosing the most suitable cultivars for each region based on the degree of CLR resistance.