Coastal cities in China are frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs), which result in tremendous loss of life and property. Even though the capability of numerical weather prediction models to forecast and track TCs has considerably improved in recent years, forecasting the intensity of a TC is still very difficult; thus, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of TC intensity prediction. To this end, we established a series of predictors using the Best Track TC dataset to predict the intensity of TCs in the Western North Pacific with an eXtreme Gradient BOOSTing (XGBOOST) model. The climatology and persistence factors, environmental factors, brainstorm features, intensity categories, and TC months are considered inputs for the models while the output is the TC intensity. The performance of the XGBOOST model was tested for very strong TCs such as Hato (2017), Rammasum (2014), Mujiage (2015), and Hagupit (2014). The results obtained show that the combination of inputs chosen were the optimal predictors for TC intensification with lead times of 6, 12, 18, and 24 h. Furthermore, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the XGBOOST model was much smaller than the MAEs of a back propagation neural network (BPNN) used to predict TC intensity. The MAEs of the forecasts with 6, 12, 18, and 24 h lead times for the test samples used were 1.61, 2.44, 3.10, and 3.70 m/s, respectively, for the XGBOOST model. The results indicate that the XGBOOST model developed in this study can be used to improve TC intensity forecast accuracy and can be considered a better alternative to conventional operational forecast models for TC intensity prediction.

Conventional numerical methods have made significant advances in forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) tracks, using remote sensing data with high spatial and temporal resolutions. However, over the past two decades, no significant improvements have been made with regard to the accuracy of TC intensity prediction, which remains challenging, as the internal convection and formation mechanisms of such storms are not fully understood. This study investigated the relationship between remote sensing data and TC intensity to improve the accuracy of TC intensity prediction. An intensity forecast model for the South China Sea was built using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and FengYun-2 (FY-2) satellite data, environmental data, and best track datasets from 2006 to 2017. First, correlation analysis algorithms were used to extract the TC regions in which the satellite data were best correlated, with TC intensity at lead times of 6, 12, 18, and 24 h. Then, satellite, best track, and environmental data were used as source data to develop three different XGBoost models for predicting TC intensity: model A1 (climatology and persistence predictors + environmental predictors), model A2 (A1 + satellite-based predictors extracted as mean values), and model A3 (A1 + satellite-based predictors extracted by our method). Finally, we analyzed the impact of the FY-2 satellite data on the accuracy of TC intensity prediction using the forecast skill parameter. The results revealed that the equivalent blackbody temperature (TBB) of the FY-2 data has a strong correlation with TC intensity at 6, 12, 18, and 24 h lead times. The mean absolute error (MAE) of model A3 was reduced by 0.47%, 1.79%, 1.91%, and 5.04% in 6, 12, 18, and 24 h forecasts, respectively, relative to those of model A2, respectively, and by 2.73%, 7.58%, 7.64%, and 5.04% in 6, 12, 18, and 24 h forecasts, respectively, relative to those of model A1. Furthermore, the accuracy of TC intensity prediction is improved by FY-2 satellite images, and our extraction method was found to significantly improve upon the traditional extraction method.

Most models designed to simulate pedestrian dynamical behavior are based on the assumption that human decision-making can be described using precise values. This study proposes a new pedestrian model that incorporates fuzzy logic theory into a multi-agent system to address cognitive behavior that introduces uncertainty and imprecision during decision-making. We present a concept of decision preferences to represent the intrinsic control factors of decision-making. To realize the different decision preferences of heterogeneous pedestrians, the Five-Factor (OCEAN) personality model is introduced to model the psychological characteristics of individuals. Then, a fuzzy logic-based approach is adopted for mapping the relationships between the personality traits and the decision preferences. Finally, we have developed an application using our model to simulate pedestrian dynamical behavior in several normal or non-panic scenarios, including a single-exit room, a hallway with obstacles, and a narrowing passage. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated with a user study. The results show that the proposed model can generate more reasonable and heterogeneous behavior in the simulation and indicate that individual personality has a noticeable effect on pedestrian dynamical behavior.