Quantifying variation in precipitation and drought in the context of a changing climate is important to assess climate-induced changes and propose feasible mitigation strategies, particularly in agrarian economies. This study investigates the main characteristics and historical drought trend for the period 1980–2016 using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), Run Theory and Mann–Kendall Trend Test at seven stations across the Upper Draa Basin. The results indicate that rainfall has the largest magnitude over the M’semrir and Agouim (>218 mm/pa) and the lowest in the Agouilal, Mansour Eddahbi Dam, and Assaka subregions (104 mm–134 mm/pa). The annual rainfall exhibited high variability with a coefficient of variation between 35−57% and was positively related to altitude with a correlation coefficient of 0.86. However, no significant annual rainfall trend was detected for all stations. The drought analysis results showed severe drought in 1981–1984, 2000–2001, and 2013–2014, with 2001 being the driest year during the study period and over 75% of both SPEI and SPI values returned drought. Conversely, wet years were experienced in 1988–1990 and 2007–2010, with 1989 being the wettest year. The drought frequency was low (<19%) across all the timescales considered for both SPI and SPEI, with Mansour Eddahbi Dam and Assaka recording the highest frequencies for SPI-3 and SPEI-3, respectively.

The consequences of global warming will aggravate the impacts of droughts. Future drought patterns are important for planning and policy formulation to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change. Consequently, this study aims at examining the projected the drought characteristics in seven meteorological stations in the Upper Draa Catchment (UDC) during the period from 1980 to 2016 using standardized precipitation index. The future climate scenarios were predicted by the model CNRM-ALADIN63 for three periods (2025–2049, 2050–2074, and 2075–2099). The changes were examined based on two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios, namely: RCP4.5and RCP8.5. The findings indicated that increasingly extreme droughts are anticipated to occur during (2050-2074) followed by (2025-2049) than (2075-2099) under both scenarios. The results reveal a contrast in drought event frequency between historical data and projections with a noticeable variation of patterns of droughts characteristics across stations and time periods. This accentuates how urgent it is for the Upper Draa Catchment to implement proactive water resource management and adaptive strategies.