Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering & Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A and M University, College Station, Texas 77843-2117, USA
Prof. Vijay Singh
Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering & Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A and M University, College Station, Texas 77843-2117, USA
Water-borne pathogen contamination in water resources and related diseases are a major water quality concern throughout the world. Increasing interest in controlling water-borne pathogens in water resources evidenced by a large number of recent publications clearly attests to the need for studies that synthesize knowledge from multiple fields covering comparative aspects of pathogen contamination, and unify them in a single place in order to present and address the problem as a whole. Providing a broader perceptive of pathogen contamination in freshwater (rivers, lakes, reservoirs, groundwater) and saline water (estuaries and coastal waters) resources, this review paper attempts to develop the first comprehensive single source of existing information on pathogen contamination in multiple types of water resources. In addition, a comprehensive discussion describes the challenges associated with using indicator organisms. Potential impacts of water resources development on pathogen contamination as well as challenges that lie ahead for addressing pathogen contamination are also discussed.
Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large‐scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high‐quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.
Treating the occurrence and severity of droughts as random, a hybrid model, combining a linear stochastic model and a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) model, is developed for drought forecasting. The hybrid model combines the advantages of both stochastic and ANN models. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index series, the hybrid model as well as the individual stochastic and ANN models were applied to forecast droughts in the Kansabati River basin in India, and their performances were compared. The hybrid model was found to forecast droughts with greater accuracy.
This study presents three new hybrid artificial intelligence optimization models—namely, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with cultural (ANFIS-CA), bees (ANFIS-BA), and invasive weed optimization (ANFIS-IWO) algorithms—for flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) in the Haraz watershed, Iran. Ten continuous and categorical flood conditioning factors were chosen based on the 201 flood locations, including topographic wetness index (TWI), river density, stream power index (SPI), curvature, distance from river, lithology, elevation, ground slope, land use, and rainfall. The step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA) model was adopted for the assessment of relationship between flood locations and conditioning factors. The ANFIS model, based on SWARA weights, was employed for providing FSMs with three optimization models to enhance the accuracy of prediction. To evaluate the model performance and prediction capability, root-mean-square error (RMSE) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (area under the ROC (AUROC)) were used. Results showed that ANFIS-IWO with lower RMSE (0.359) had a better performance, while ANFIS-BA with higher AUROC (94.4%) showed a better prediction capability, followed by ANFIS0-IWO (0.939) and ANFIS-CA (0.921). These models can be suggested for FSM in similar climatic and physiographic areas for developing measures to mitigate flood damages and to sustainably manage floodplains.
This review provides a broad overview of the current state of flood research, current challenges, and future directions. Beginning with a discussion of flood-generating mechanisms, the review synthesizes the literature on flood forecasting, multivariate and nonstationary flood frequency analysis, urban flooding, and the remote sensing of floods. Challenges and future flood research directions are outlined and highlight emerging topics where more work is needed to help mitigate flood risks. It is anticipated that the future urban systems will likely have more significant flood risk due to the compounding effects of continued climate change and land-use intensification. The timely prediction of urban floods, quantification of the socioeconomic impacts of flooding, and developing mitigation strategies will continue to be challenging. There is a need to bridge the scales between model capabilities and end-user needs by integrating multiscale models, stakeholder input, and social and citizen science input for flood monitoring, mapping, and dissemination. Although much progress has been made in using remote sensing for flood applications, recent and upcoming Earth Observations provide excellent potential to unlock additional benefits for flood applications. The flood community can benefit from more downscaled, as well as ensemble scenarios that consider climate and land-use changes. Efforts are also needed for data assimilation approaches, especially to ingest local, citizen, and social media data. Also needed are enhanced capabilities to model compound hazards and assess as well as help reduce social vulnerability and impacts. The dynamic and complex interactions between climate, societal change, watershed processes, and human factors often confronted with deep uncertainty highlights the need for transdisciplinary research between science, policymakers, and stakeholders to reduce flood risk and social vulnerability.