The article proposes to use machine learning as one of the areas of artificial intelligence to forecast the volume of biogas production from household organic waste. The use of five regression algorithms (Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, Random Forest Regression, and Gradient Boosting Regression) to create an effective model for forecasting the volume of biogas production from household organic waste is considered. Based on the comparison of these algorithms by MSE and MAE indicators, the quality of training and their accuracy during forecasting are evaluated. The proposed algorithm for creating a model for forecasting biogas production volumes from household organic waste involves the implementation of 10 main and 3 auxiliary steps. Their advantage is that they aid in the performance of component data analysis, which is carried out based on the method of reducing the dimensionality of the data set, increasing interpretability, and minimizing the risk of data loss. An analysis of 2433 data is was carried out, which characterizes the formation of biogas from food (FW) and yard waste (YW) according to four features. Data preparation is performed using the Jupyter Notebook environment in Python. We select five machine learning algorithms to substantiate an effective model for forecasting volumes of biogas production from household organic waste. On the basis of the conducted research, the main advantages and disadvantages of the used algorithms for building forecasting models of biogas production volumes from household organic waste are determined. It is found that two models, “Random Forest Regressor” and “Gradient Boosting Regressor”, show the best accuracy indicators. The other three models (Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression) are inferior in accuracy and were not considered further. To determine the accuracy of the “Random Forest Regressor” and “Gradient Boosting Regressor” models, we choose the MSE and MAE indicators. The Random Forest Regressor model is found to be a more accurate model compared to the Gradient Boosting Regressor. This is confirmed by the fact that the MSE of the “Random Forest Regressor” model on the training data set is 7.14 times smaller than that of the “Gradient Boosting Regressor” model. At the same time, MAE is 2.67 times smaller in the “Random Forest Regressor” model than in the “Gradient Boosting Regressor” model. The MSE and MAE of both models are worse on the test data set, which indicates overtraining tendencies. The Gradient Boosting Regressor model has worse MSE and MAE than the Random Forest Regressor model on both the training and test data sets. It is established that the model based on the “Random Forest Regressor” algorithm is the most effective for forecasting the volume of biogas production from household organic waste. It provides MAE = 0.088 on test data and the smallest absolute errors in predictions. Further systematic improvement of the “Random Forest Regressor” model for forecasting biogas production volumes from household organic waste based on new data will ensure its accuracy and maintain competitive advantages.

The article analyzed the state of the global problem of ecological safety of the EU and argued the need to create a methodology for planning technologically integrated projects of the “European Green Deal” (TIP “EGD”) that accounts for the risks to the stakeholders, i.e., the state, project executors, resource suppliers, project managers, and clients. Each of these has an individual set of values that determines the project risk for them. Herein is proposed a taxonomy of three ranks of TIP “EGD” involving agricultural waste, determined by their characteristics, products, and requirements for the stakeholders. The authors point out the need to create tools for quantitative risk assessment for the stakeholders of TIP “EGD” involving agricultural waste and distinguish four groups of risk components with regard to the value of such projects. A model of value risk formation is presented that addresses the risk management of each of these stakeholder values. The need to develop tools (models, methods, and algorithms) for quantitative risk assessment of the values of each type of project is discussed. Regularities in the formation of stakeholder values, which were a foundation of the model of formation, are established.

Hydrogen is increasingly considered as an environmentally friendly energy source as it stores a large amount of chemical energy per unit mass (142 MJ·kg⁻¹) that can be released without the emission of combustion by-products. The presented research is based on simulation modeling of biohydrogen production projects from agricultural waste. Based on the probability theory and mathematical statistics, the models of the variable market value of biohydrogen and natural gas are substantiated. The results of the research indicate that in 2019, projects regarding the production of biohydrogen from agricultural raw materials were mostly unprofitable for the investors. However, starting in 2030, the forecasted return on investment in biohydrogen production projects from agricultural raw materials indicates that such projects will be profitable for investors, and the number and scale of such projects will significantly increase worldwide.

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, the scientific journal of the Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic

The proposed approach to quantitative assessment of the risk of investor’s profit in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol involves the implementation of eight stages. It systematically takes into account the stochastic nature of many factors that determine the amount of investments in the project, as well as the stochastic nature of the market value of raw materials. The use of the proposed approach makes it possible to obtain an accurate assessment of the level of risk of investors in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol, taking into account the requirements of investors. Based on the use of the developed application software, stochastic models of profit of investors in projects for the production of raw materials for wheat bioethanol and patterns of changes in their risk for the Western region of Ukraine are obtained. It is established that with the growth of the minimum expected profit of investors of projects from 10 to 70$/ton, the probability of its receipt varies from 0.89 to 0.34. According to a reasonable scale, the level of risk of making a profit by investors in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol from wheat varies from acceptable to high.

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, the scientific journal of the Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic