Future anticipated warming could reduce the terrestrial carbon sink by ~50% by mid-century.

Fertilized soils have large potential for production of soil nitrogen oxide (NO_x=NO+NO₂), however these emissions are difficult to predict in high-temperature environments. Understanding these emissions may improve air quality modelling as NO_x contributes to formation of tropospheric ozone (O₃), a powerful air pollutant. Here we identify the environmental and management factors that regulate soil NO_x emissions in a high-temperature agricultural region of California. We also investigate whether soil NO_x emissions are capable of influencing regional air quality. We report some of the highest soil NO_x emissions ever observed. Emissions vary nonlinearly with fertilization, temperature and soil moisture. We find that a regional air chemistry model often underestimates soil NO_x emissions and NO_x at the surface and in the troposphere. Adjusting the model to match NO_x observations leads to elevated tropospheric O₃. Our results suggest management can greatly reduce soil NO_x emissions, thereby improving air quality.