Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are changing global ecosystems and bearing profound socio-economic impacts, yet our understanding of the spatial features, temporal evolution characteristics, and regional differences in China’s marginal seas remains insufficient. In this study, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of the frequency, mean intensity, maximum intensity, cumulative intensity, duration and total days of MHWs are systematically analyzed based on daily sea surface temperature data from Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA) for the period of 1983–2020. The results show the following: The annual mean frequency of MHWs in China’s coastal seas is 1.4–4.6 counts per year and increases gradually from north to south. The annual mean of mean intensity, maximum intensity and cumulative intensity are, respectively, in the ranges of 0.3–2.9 °C, 0.4–3.7 °C and 3.9–41.7 °C days, all of which show a significant decreasing trend from north to south. The annual mean of duration and total days of MHWs are in the respective ranges 8.7–19.7 and 18.9–69.1 days. The annual mean of frequency, cumulative intensity, duration and total days all show a clear increasing trend, with respective linear increases of 1.03 counts, 3.57 °C days, and 1.98 and 17.58 days per decade. The annual means of the mean intensity and maximum intensity have no obvious upward trend, with the exceptions of the Bohai and Yellow Seas. Finally, MHWs were divided into the four categories of moderate, strong, severe and extreme, with the results showing that moderate ones account for more than 70% of all heatwave events, while strong, severe and extreme ones, respectively, account for about 25%, 2% and 0.02%.

In recent years, global sea surface temperature (SST) has risen steadily, with 2023 and 2024 breaking successive historical observation records, thus rendering marine heatwaves (MHWs) an unignorable new marine disaster. To scientifically mitigate and assess the impacts of MHW disasters on China’s coastal waters, this study developed a monitoring and weekly forecast product for MHWs based on the OSTIA (Operational SST and Ice Analysis) SST observational fusion data and SST numerical forecast data. Evaluation shows the following: the quarterly average of the RMSE for the weekly MHWs intensity forecasts is 0.52 °C; and the quarterly average score for the weekly MHW’s category forecasts is 94.4. Characteristic analysis of 2024 MHWs reveals 93.7% of China’s coastal waters and adjacent areas experienced MHWs throughout the year, and the average monthly impact rate of MHWs is 43.8%. High-value areas of total days and cumulative intensity are concentrated in the central-eastern part of the Yellow Sea, which makes it the most severely affected area by MHW disasters in 2024. The weekly MHW’s forecast product developed in this study provides deterministic weekly forecasts of MHWs intensity and categories for China’s coastal waters. This product can serve as a guidance basis for MHW disaster prevention and mitigation, and help reduce losses caused by MHWs to the marine environment and marine economy.