This paper focuses on research in expert elicitation as a part of the early stage health technology assessment (eHTA). The current state of affairs is analysed and two elicitation approaches are compared—the four fixed intervals method and the histogram method—as applied to an example of early assessment of clinical effectiveness of artificial thymus for patients with DiGeorge syndrome. A survey was carried out consisting of four questions concerning the topic, with the aim to apply the elicitation methods. Eight experts answered the questions using both elicitation methods. Based on their answers, the methods were compared visually and by means of statistical tests. In order to compare the perception of the two elicitation methods, the survey also included questions regarding the experts’ subjective preferences. The results of the comparison of the two elicitation approaches did not clearly confirm which method was more beneficial and better; however, it was possible to indicate which of the two methods is better suited for different types of experts. Before selecting an elicitation method as a part of eHTA, it is advisable to effectively consider the technology to be assessed and the type of experts to be invited to share their opinion.

Purpose: The study deals with eHTA of new technology for STEMI patients indicated for PCI treatment, which contains diagnostic of rVF risks and medication to prevent rVF in at-risk patients above standard approved procedure. Due to the recommended medication procedure for STEMI patients with identified high rVF risks during PCI and its effectiveness have not been established the goal is to find out what level of medication effectiveness which will be sufficient for the cost-effectiveness of the new technology. Methods: Scenarios where the effectiveness of rVF protecting medication administered to predisposed STEMI patients undergoing PCI varies from 5 to 95% were analyzed. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated by the CEA. Results: The determined minimum effectiveness of rVF protecting medication to achieve the technology and procedure cost-effectiveness is 7.54%. Even if medication efficacy is at least 39.58%, the technology is “dominant” and the ICER is in the South-east [SE] quadrant. Conclusions: Cost-effectiveness analysis show that for all scenarios modeled, except the 5% medication effectiveness scenario, the technology appears to be cost-effective. so such new technology will probably be very attractive for investors.

Patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have a high risk of ventricular fibrillation. The aim of the study is to determine an unknown parameter of the new diagnostic cardiology technology model created within eHTA, effectiveness of intravenous administration of high doses of melatonin (4mg/kg) before/during PCI as protective medication in STEMI patients with a diagnosed by new technology high risk of ventricular fibrillation at reperfusion using expert elicitation. Ten experts took part in the elicitation and filled out prepared questionnaire, which included experimental evidence for antiarrhythmic action of melatonin, including cellular mechanisms. They expressed their opinions on the potential effectiveness of medication using numerical method and also answered questions about the suitability of the dosage, adverse effects and the risk-benefit ratio. Experts' answers to the main research question were weighted based on their experience. Elicitation revealed the effectiveness value of 71.82% for the tested medication. Eighty percent of experts agreed that the dose is adequate, that side effects will be minimal, and that the benefits of such therapy outweigh possible risks. Results of this study will be applied for eHTA of novel diagnostic technology in cardiology and will help its manufacturer to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of the technology, find the right direction to complete the design and development of medical device, achieve optimal efficiency, present the concept and find investors, prepare for clinical evaluation, CE certification and inclusion to reimbursement system.