Significant carbon emissions, a key contributor to global climate warming, pose risks to ecosystems and human living conditions. It is crucial to monitor the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions at the county level to reach the goals of carbon peak and neutrality. This study examines carbon emissions and economic and social problems data from 89 counties in Zhejiang Province. It employs analytical techniques such as LISA time path, spatio-temporal transition, and standard deviational ellipse to investigate the trends of carbon emissions from 2002 to 2022. Furthermore, it utilizes the GTWR model to evaluate the factors that influence these emissions on a county scale. The findings reveal the following: (1) The LISA time path analysis indicates a pronounced local spatial structure in the distribution of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2022, characterized by increasing stability, notable path dependency, and some degree of spatial integration, albeit with a diminishing trend in overall integration. (2) The LISA spatio-temporal transition analysis indicates significant path dependency or lock-in effects in the county-level spatial clustering of carbon emissions. (3) Over the period 2002–2022, the centroid of carbon emissions in Zhejiang’s counties mainly oscillated between 120°55′15″ E and 120°57′01″ E and between 29°55′52″ N and 29°59′11″ N, with a general northeastward shift forming a “V” pattern. This shift resulted in a stable “northeast–southwest” spatial distribution. (4) Factors such as population size, urbanization rate, and economic development level predominantly accelerate carbon emissions, whereas industrial structure tends to curb them. It is crucial to customize carbon mitigation plans to suit the circumstances of each county. This study provides insight into the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions at the county level in Zhejiang Province. It offers crucial guidance for developing targeted and practical strategies to reduce carbon emissions.

With the progression of novel urbanization, rural regions are increasingly characterized by mixed-use features, where work and living activities intersect, resulting in a significant surge in per capita carbon emissions. This research article aims to elucidate the spatio-temporal relationship of carbon emissions in rural areas and their association with mixed-use intensity from a sustainable development perspective. For the study, we selected four of the most representative mixed-use village types in the Yangtze River Delta region. Using the STING method, each rural space was delineated into micro-level mixed-use units. Subsequently, a quantitative evaluation model was constructed to gauge the relationship between mixed-use intensity and carbon emissions. This was complemented by employing GIS simulations to analyze the spatio-temporal attributes of carbon emissions in mixed-use villages. Our findings indicate that (1) different types of villages display considerable disparities in mixed-use intensity and carbon emissions. Their correlation also varies significantly, with traditional agricultural villages exhibiting the lowest values of 0.338 and 0.356, while E-commerce-centric villages recorded the highest at 0.674 and 0.653. (2) The carbon emissions of rural units manifest diverse patterns that include dispersed distribution, core aggregation, linear decay, and dissipative fragmentation. These correspond to traditional agriculture, industrial production, tourism service, and E-commerce villages, respectively. (3) The carbon emissions of mixed-use villages exhibit cyclical fluctuations over time, with different magnitudes observed across villages. Traditional agricultural villages display the smallest fluctuations (within 30%), while those centered around tourism services can experience fluctuations exceeding 150%. Building on these insights, we delved deep into the challenges faced by each village type in enhancing the quality of work and living while concurrently achieving energy conservation and emission reduction. Based on these aspects, we propose a sustainable low-carbon development pathway tailored for mixed-use villages.