Group emergency decision-making (GEDM) problems have drawn great attention in past few years due to its advantages of dealing with the emergency events (EEs) effectively. Due to the fact that EEs are usually featured by lack of information and time pressure, decision makers (DMs) are often bound rational and their psychological behaviors are very crucial to the GEDM process. However, DM’s psychological behaviors are neglected in current GEDM approaches. The assessments representing the individual wisdom provided by each expert are usually aggregated in the GEDM process. Nevertheless, the aggregation process always implies summarization of data that can result in loss of information. To overcome these limitations pointed out previously, this paper proposes a new GEDM method that considers the DM’s psychological behaviors in the decision process using prospect theory and replaces the aggregation process by a fusion method with hesitant fuzzy set, which keeps the experts’ information as much as possible. A case study is provided to illustrate the validity and feasibility of the proposed method.
Because of the continuous burst of emergency events (EEs) recently, emergency decision making (EDM) has become an active research topic due to its crucial role in relieving and reducing various losses and damages (property, lives, environment, etc.) caused by EEs. Current EDM studies based on prospect theory (PT) have considered decision maker’s (DM’s) psychological behavior, which is very important in the EDM process because it affects DM’s decision behavior directly, particularly under the uncertainty decision environment. However, those studies neglected an important fact that different emergency situations should be handled by different measures to show the pertinence and effectiveness of the emergency response in the real world, which has been taken into consideration in EDM studies based on game theory (GT). Different behavior experiments show that DMs usually have limited rationality when involved in risk and an uncertain decision environment, in which their psychological behavior has distinct impacts on their decision choice and behavior. Nevertheless, the existing studies of EDM based on GT build on an assumption that DMs are totally rational; however, it is obvious that such an assumption is unreasonable and far from the real-world situation. Motivated by these limitations pointed out previously, this study proposes a novel EDM method combining GT and PT that considers not only the DM’s psychological behavior, but also takes different situations’ handling for EEs into account, which is closer to the EDM problems in reality. An example and comparison with other methods are provided to demonstrate the validity and rationality of the proposed method for coping with real-world EDM problems.
3 December 2024 in Expert Systems with Applications
Early warnings are an indispensable part of emergency management, which is a powerful way to eliminate or reduce the negative impacts caused by emergencies in advance. Early warning problems have been discussed from different perspectives and have obtained fruitful results. Information plays a critical role in all kinds of decision problems, with no exception for the early warning problem. There are various information types related to emergencies in real-world situations; however, existing early warning studies only considered a single information type, which might not describe the problem properly and comprehensively. To enrich existing early warning studies, a novel early warning method considering non-homogeneous information together with experts’ hesitation is proposed, in which numerical values, interval values, linguistic terms, and hesitant fuzzy linguistic terms are considered. To facilitate the computations with non-homogeneous information, a transformation process needs to be conducted. On such a basis, a fuzzy TOPSIS method based on alpha-level sets is employed to handle the transformed fuzzy information due to its superiority in obtaining information and its capacity to contain as much information as possible during the early warning process. Additionally, two different options are provided to analyze the status and tendency of early warning objects. Finally, an illustrative example about early warnings about landslides and a related comparison are conducted to demonstrate the novelty, superiority, and feasibility and validity of the proposed method.
When an emergency event occurs, emergency plans are usually employed to respond the emergency situations in order to prevent or mitigate possible losses of life and property. Therefore, emergency plans play an important and indispensable part in emergency decision-making. With regard to the question of how to generate emergency plans, extant studies have discussed the problem from various perspectives, and fruitful results have been obtained. Dynamic evolution is a typical feature of emergency events, and usually involves the updating of related information regarding an emergency event. Existing studies have considered dynamic evolution during the emergency plan generation process only from a single perspective, neglecting the related need to update information as dynamic evolution occurs. Information related to the emergency event plays a vital role in the emergency plan generation process, and needs to be considered. To overcome these limitations, the present study proposes a novel dynamic emergency plan generation method based on integer linear programming, which considers different emergency situations and limited resources. An illustrative example and descriptive comparisons are provided to demonstrate the novelty, superiority, and validity of the proposed method.