Globally, urbanization is increasing at an unprecedented rate at the cost of agricultural and forested lands in peri-urban areas fringing larger cities. Such land-cover change generally entails negative implications for societal and environmental sustainability, particularly in South Asia, where high demographic growth and poor land-use planning combine. Analyzing historical land-use change and predicting the future trends concerning urban expansion may support more effective land-use planning and sustainable outcomes. For Nepal’s Tarai region—a populous area experiencing land-use change due to urbanization and other factors—we draw on Landsat satellite imagery to analyze historical land-use change focusing on urban expansion during 1989–2016 and predict urban expansion by 2026 and 2036 using artificial neural network (ANN) and Markov chain (MC) spatial models based on historical trends. Urban cover quadrupled since 1989, expanding by 256 km² (460%), largely as small scattered settlements. This expansion was almost entirely at the expense of agricultural conversion (249 km²). After 2016, urban expansion is predicted to increase linearly by a further 199 km² by 2026 and by another 165 km² by 2036, almost all at the expense of agricultural cover. Such unplanned loss of prime agricultural lands in Nepal’s fertile Tarai region is of serious concern for food-insecure countries like Nepal.

Given the increasing vulnerabilities and adverse effects of climate change, the development and implementation of adaptation strategies is essential. This is particularly so for Nepal where the agriculture sector – the mainstay of the country’s economy – is highly vulnerable to climate change. As a country that loses much from climate change, local communities here have been adapting to climate change impacts using localized knowledge and practices. However, few studies have systematically reviewed the adaptation strategies of Nepalese farmers. We conduct such a review using the RepOrting Standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES) guidelines. The relevant literature is retrieved using Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar databases. The adaptation strategies of the Nepalese farmers are broadly categorized under seven themes and twenty-nine sub-themes: (a) access to financial resources and risk transfer; (b) diversification of livelihoods, income sources and agricultural practices; (c) spatial adaptation; (d) climate smart agriculture; (e) common pooling of resources and social action; (f) traditional and local knowledge; and (g) food and water storage and security. Diversification of livelihoods, income sources and agricultural practices are the most common adaptation strategies employed. All the strategies practiced are autonomous, have a short term orientation and reactive in nature rather than being sustainable and proactive. The outputs of this study explore the significance of the local adaptation strategies and to what extent they should be integrated into the mainstream of national and local level development plans. These findings of Nepal – are relevant to neighbouring countries such as Bhutan, Bangladesh and India. Key policy insights

Forests are viable tools in combating the impacts of climate change, as they are capable of sequestering atmospheric carbon and storing it in different pools. This study aimed to examine the carbon sequestration potential of community-managed Shorea robusta (Sal) forest and assess the practices that have the potential to reduce adverse climate change impacts, thereby improving the livelihoods of forest-based communities. For this, we obtained forest inventory-derived carbon data from 11 sample plots of Shorea robusta (Sal) forest, analyzed them using allometric equations, and estimated the carbon storage and climate change mitigation potential of these forests, while focus group discussions and desk review of secondary information were employed to investigate the adaptation potential. The results show that the estimated biomass density of the selected forest is 352.46 ± 63.79 t/ha, whereas the carbon stock density is 165.66 ± 29.98 t/ha and the CO₂ equivalent is 598.07 ± 110.48 t/ha. The study further revealed that community forest management, as a successful model of participatory forest management and community forest user group (CFUG) as a resourceful local institution, has been playing an important role in the diversification of livelihoods and income opportunities, social cohesion and thus climate change adaptation through collective actions. The adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts have been prioritized in the operational plans of the CFUGs. Through the promotion and prioritization of alternative energy, agroforestry and enhanced livelihood options, the CFUGs are committed to the sustainable management of forest resources and to enhancing the livelihoods of local communities. This study indicates the relevance of community forests as a priority institution for the implementation of Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA) and support National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) to combat climatic impacts, providing important information for planners and policy makers in Nepal and elsewhere.