Christina Chaniotaki

Christina Chaniotaki

Computer Science, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
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Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

4Years (2023-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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17 August 2023 in Preprints.org
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Nikos SakkasNikos Sakkas
Nikos Sakkas
SYSofia Yfanti
Sofia Yfanti
PSPooja Shah
Pooja Shah
NSNikitas Sakkas
Nikitas Sakkas
CCChristina Chaniotaki
Christina Chaniotaki
MDMarharyta Domnich
Marharyta Domnich
Building electric energy is characterized by a significant increase of its uses (e.g. vehicle charging), a rapidly declining cost of all related data collection and a proliferation of smart grid concepts, including diverse and flexible electricity pricing schemes. Not surprisingly, an increased number of approaches have been proposed for its modeling and forecasting. In this work, we place our emphasis on three forecasting related issues. First, on the forecasting explainability, i.e. the ability to understand and explain to the user what shapes the forecast. To this extent we rely on concepts and approaches that are inherently explainable, such as the evolutionary approach of genetic programming (GP) and its associated symbolic expressions, as well as the so-called SHAP (SHapley Additive eXplanations) values, which is a well established model agnostic approach for explainability, especially in terms of feature importance. Second, we investigate the impact of the training timeframe on the forecasting accuracy; this is driven by the realization that a fast training would allow for faster deployment of forecasting in real life solutions. And third, we explore the concept of counterfactual analysis on actionable features, i.e. features that the user can really act upon and which therefore present an inherent advantage when it comes to decision support. We have found that SHAP values can provide important insights into the model explainability. As for GP models, we have found comparable and in some cases superior accuracy when compared to its neural-network and time-series counterparts but a rather questionable potential to produce crisp and insightful symbolic expressions, allowing a better insight into the model performance. We have also found, and report here on an important potential especially for practical, decision support, solutions of counterfactuals built on actionable features and short training timeframes.