In the past two decades, China’s urbanization has advanced rapidly. In 2018, Xi’an was successfully selected as a national central city, and the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration (GZPUA) is emerging rapidly due to Xi’an. This study focuses on the current ecological status of the region and how to strike a balance between economic development and ecological protection. This study uses the ecological vulnerability of the Guanzhong urban agglomeration as a starting point to investigate the changes in its spatial and temporal distribution of ecological vulnerability and the primary driving factors, as well as to investigate the interaction between the changes in ecological vulnerability and urban agglomeration development in the GZPUA region. Using the “sensitivity–elasticity–pressure (SEP)” assessment framework model, this paper selects the spatial distribution data of natural, social, and economic sources in 2000 and 2020 based on the ecological environment characteristics of GZPUA. By using spatial principal component analysis, this paper quantitatively evaluates the ecological vulnerability changes of GZPUA in two periods, 2000 and 2020, with 1000 m × 1000 m raster as the evaluation unit, classifies the ecological vulnerability of the area into levels, and conducts a sub-regional in-depth study from different administrative regions. This research helps to comprehend the change in ecological environment quality in the GZPUA and provides a basis for ecological environment management decisions in the region. The results showed that (1) the ecological vulnerability of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration as a whole is moderate, with the highest ecological vulnerability index (EVI) value of 0.89 and the lowest EVI value of 0.087 in 2000, and the highest EVI value of 0.93 and the lowest EVI value of 0.082 in 2020. The percentage of areas with the highest ecological vulnerability (moderate or severe) was 5.07% in 2000 and 15.11% in 2020. (2) The variation scope of the integrated EVI in the study region is 1.78–4.96 (2000) and 1.81–4.99 (2020), among which the EVI values in Xi’an, Bei Lin, Lian Hu, and Xin Cheng are the highest and the EVI values in Tai Bai, Zhou Zhi, and Feng Xian are the lowest. (3) In the central region of GZPUA, the spatial variation of CEVI is distributed in a circle that is highly congruent with the region’s economic and population development characteristics, whereas the spatial variation of CEVI in the southern mountainous region of the study area is primarily constrained by the topography and natural conditions. This region has low CEVI because of the high mountains and thick forests, which is a crucial ecological barrier for the GZPUA. (4) The EVI, ecological sensitivity index (ESI), ecological elasticity index (EEI), and ecological pressure index (EPI) have a strong relationship with land use. Among them, farmland and built-up land showed highly significant correlations with the EVI, ESI, EEI, and EPI (p < 0.01).

Under the background of climate warming, the occurrence of extreme events upstream of the Yellow River Basin has increased significantly. Extreme precipitation tends to be even more intense, and occurs more frequently. The impacts of various extreme weather and climate events in the basin have become increasingly complex, which is increasingly difficult to cope with and affects the basin’s long-term stability and ecological security. Based on the daily precipitation data of 33 meteorological stations in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2021, this paper analyzes the characteristics of rainstorm intensity. Moreover, combined with the simulation results of 10 global climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the social and economic prediction data from SSPs, it analyzes the possible changes of rainstorm disaster risk in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin in the 21st century, under the three emission scenarios of SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370. The results show that the precipitation in the upstream area of the Yellow River Basin is increasing at a rate of 8.1 mm per 10 years, and the number of rainstorm processes and their indicators is increasing, which indicates an increase in the extremeness of precipitation; the rainstorm process intensity index shows an increasing trend, especially in the northeast region with a concentrated population and economy, where the rainstorm process intensity index is high; it is estimated that the number of rainstorm days in low-, medium-, and high-risk scenarios will increase, which leads to an increase in the social risk by at least 60% by around 2050 (2036–2065); with the increasing disaster risk, the population exposure to rainstorm disasters is also on the rise. If no measures are taken, the population exposure will increase to 7.316 million people per day by around 2050, increasing by more than double, especially in the northeast. This study shows that, with the increasing rainstorm disaster risk and population exposure in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin, relevant measures need to be taken to ensure the safety of people’s lives and property.