The intermittent and random nature of wind brings great challenges to the accurate prediction of wind power; a single model is insufficient to meet the requirements of ultra-short-term wind power prediction. Although ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) can be used to extract the time series features of the original wind power data, the number of its modes will increase with the complexity of the original data. Too many modes are unnecessary, making the prediction model constructed based on the sub-models too complex. An entropy ensemble empirical mode decomposition (eEEMD) method based on information entropy is proposed in this work. Fewer components with significant feature differences are obtained using information entropy to reconstruct sub-sequences. The long short-term memory (LSTM) model is suitable for prediction after the decomposition of time series. All the modes are trained with the same deep learning framework LSTM. In view of the different features of each mode, models should be trained differentially for each mode; a rule is designed to determine the training error of each mode according to its average value. In this way, the model prediction accuracy and efficiency can make better tradeoffs. The predictions of different modes are reconstructed to obtain the final prediction results. The test results from a wind power unit show that the proposed eEEMD-LSTM has higher prediction accuracy compared with single LSTM and EEMD-LSTM, and the results based on Bayesian ridge regression (BR) and support vector regression (SVR) are the same; eEEMD-LSTM exhibits better performance.

The accurate detection of wind power outliers plays a crucial role in wind power forecasting, while the inherited strong randomness and high fluctuations bring great challenges to this issue. This work investigates the way to improve the outlier detection accuracy based on support vector machine (SVM). Although SVM can achieve good results for outlier detection in theory, its performance is heavily dependent on the hyper-parameters. Parameter optimization is not an easy task due to its complex nonlinear multi-optimum nature; an improved Harris hawk optimization (IHHO) is proposed to optimize the parameters of SVM for more accurate outlier detection. HHO takes the cooperative behavior and chasing style of Harris’ hawks in nature called surprise pounce and can effectively search the optimal one in large parameter space, but it tends to fall into local optimum. To solve this issue, an improved Harris hawk optimization algorithm (IHHO) was proposed to obtain the optimal parameters of SVM. First, Hammersley sequence initialization is carried out to acquire good initial solutions. Then, a nonlinear factor control mode and an adaptive Gaussian–Cauchy mutation perturbation strategy are proposed to avoid getting trapped in local optima. In this way, a novel wind power outlier detection method named IHHO-SVM was constructed. The results on several wind power data with outliers show that IHHO-SVM outperforms SVM and HHO-SVM, which achieves the highest average F1 score of 96.63% and exhibits the smallest standard deviation. Compared to commonly used models for detecting outliers in wind power, such as isolation forest (IF), local outlier factor (LOF), SVM with grey wolf optimization (GWO-SVM), and SVM with particle swarm optimization (PSO-SVM), the proposed IHHO-SVM model shows the best overall performance with precision, recall, and F1 scores of 95.76%, 96.94%, and 96.35%, respectively.