Strong convection nowcasting has been gaining importance in regional security, economic development, and water resource management. Rainfall nowcasting with strong timeliness needs to effectively forecast the intensity of rainfall in a local region in the short term. The forecast performance of traditional methods is limited. In this paper, a rainfall nowcasting model based on the Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) is proposed. Combined reflectance (CR) and the retrieved wind field are selected as the key factors for prediction. The model considers the influence of water vapor content, transport, and change on rainfall by measuring CR and the retrieved wind field. Forecast results are compared to different models and different input data schemes. The analysis shows that the CSI scores of this method can reach about 0.8, which is 28% higher than that of the optical flow method. The ConvLSTM structure with spatial analysis and time memory can greatly enhance the predictive ability of the model, and the addition of wind field data also improves the forecasting performance of the model. Therefore, the idea of forecasting rainfall on the basis of water vapor content and water vapor transport is practical and effective, and the accuracy of a forecast can be improved by using ConvLSTM network to extract spatiotemporal features.

Among the various natural disasters encountered by cities, rainstorm waterlogging has become a serious disaster, affecting the sustainable development of cities. Taking Guangzhou as the research object, based on disaster system theory and risk triangle theory, the evaluation framework “risk of hazard causing factors—sensitivity of disaster environment—vulnerability of hazard bearing body” was selected to construct the waterlogging risk assessment model of Guangzhou. The weighted comprehensive evaluation method (AHP) was used to determine the index weight, and the rainfall runoff inundation range under different rainstorm scenarios was deduced through a Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff generation model and GIS local equal volume passive inundation simulation. The results show that when the precipitation in 2 h is less than 100 mm, the inundation range increases by 3.4 km² for every 10 mm increase in precipitation; When the precipitation in 2 h is greater than 100 mm, the inundation range will increase by 18 km² for every 10 mm increase in precipitation. The total area of medium and high flood risk in Guangzhou is 441.3 km², mainly concentrated in Yuexiu District, Liwan District, Haizhu District and Tianhe District.

Accurate forecasting of the tail water level (TWL) is of great importance for the safe and economic operation of hydropower stations. The prediction accuracy is significantly influenced by the backwater effect of downstream tributaries and the operation of adjacent hydropower stations, but the explicit quantification method of the backwater effect is lacking. In this study, a deep-learning-model-based forecasting method for TWL predictions under the backwater effect is developed and applied in the Xiangjiaba (XJB) hydropower station, which is influenced by the backwater effect of downstream tributaries, including the Hengjiang River (HJR) and the Minjiang River (MJR). Firstly, the random forest algorithm was used to analyze the influence of HJR and MJR flows with different lag times on the TWL prediction error of the XJB hydropower station. The results show that the time lags of the backwater effect of HJR and MJR run offs on the TWL of the XJB are 5~7 h and 1~2 h, respectively. Then, the run off thresholds of the HJR and MJR for impacting the TWL of the XJB station are obtained through scenario comparison, and the results show that the run off thresholds of the HJR and the MJR are 700 m³/s and 7000 m³/s, respectively. Finally, based on the analysis of the time lag and the threshold of the backwater effect, a deep learning model (LSTM)-based TWL forecasting method is established and applied to predict the TWL of the XJB station. The results show that the forecasting model has a good predictive performance, with 98.22% of absolute errors less than 20 cm. The mean absolute error over the validation dataset is 5.27 cm, and the maximum absolute error is 63.35 cm. Compared with the LSTM-based prediction model without considering the backwater effect, the mean absolute error decreased by 31%, and the maximum absolute error decreased by 71%.

Accurate and reliable mid-to-long-term runoff prediction (MLTRP) is of great importance in water resource management. However, the MLTRP is not suitable in each basin, and how to evaluate the applicability of MLTRP is still a question. Therefore, the total mutual information (TMI) index is developed in this study based on the predictor selection method using mutual information (MI) and partial MI (PMI). The relationship between the TMI and the predictive performance of five AI models is analyzed by applying five models to 222 forecasting scenarios in Australia. This results in over 222 forecasting scenarios which demonstrate that, compared with the MI, the developed TMI index can better represent the available information in the predictors and has a more significant negative correlation with the RRMSE, with a correlation coefficient between −0.62 and −0.85. This means that the model’s predictive performance will become better along with the increase in TMI, and therefore, the developed TMI index can be used to evaluate the applicability of MLTRP. When the TMI is more than 0.1, the available information in the predictors can support the construction of MLTRP models. In addition, the TMI can be used to partly explain the differences in predictive performance among five models. In general, the complex models, which can better utilize the contained information, are more sensitive to the TMI and have more significant improvement in terms of predictive performance along with the increase in TMI.