Coelho, C., Silva, R., Veloso-Gomes, F., and Taveira-Pinto, F. 2009. Potential effects of climate change on northwest Portuguese coastal zones. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1497–1507. Coastal erosion is a common problem in Europe; a result of the dynamic nature of its coastal zones, of anthropogenic influences, such as coastal interventions and littoral occupation, and of the effects of climate change. The increase in the occurrence of extreme events, the weakening of river-sediment supplies, and the general acceleration of sea level rise (SLR) probably tends to aggravate coastal erosion on decadal time-scales. Describing vulnerability and risk patterns for energetic environmental actions is important for coastal planning and management to rationalize the decision-making process. To minimize negative effects, the various processes causing erosion must be understood to assess the possible prediction scenarios for coastal evolution in the medium to long term. This paper describes the application of a coastal (shoreline evolution) numerical model to a stretch of the Portuguese coast to determine the effects of various scenarios of wave action and SLR that might result from climate change over the next 25 years. We conclude that the effects of SLR are less important than changes in wave action. The numerical model was also applied in a generic situation to compare shoreline evolution with and without anthropogenic intervention.

This article describes a climate change adaptation planning process triggered by a group of researchers and stakeholders in a context where no collective responses or long-term plans for protecting a vulnerable coastal system had been initiated, despite local perceptions of vulnerability and risk. The case study shows the application of two methods: scenario workshops and adaptation pathways in the context of a participatory action research methodological design. Participatory action research and qualitative scenario methods are highlighted as accelerators of climate change adaptation processes by calling to action, facilitating and connecting diverse social groups with a stake in a long-term plan towards a more adapted society. The experience leads to the conclusion that planning climate change adaptation has to go far beyond the technical dimension and take into account those affected (in the present and the future) by decisions made. A holistic approach to climate change adaptation planning will depend on the interrelations of managerial and top-down approaches with localized initiatives driven through an inclusive and collective action research process.