The Mogollon Highlands, Arizona/New Mexico, USA, spans a large biogeographical region of 11 biotic communities, 63 land cover types, and 7 ecoregions. This 11.3 M ha region has high levels of beta diversity across topo-edaphic gradients that span deserts to mountain tops. The main stressors affecting the region’s forests and woodlands include climate change, livestock grazing, and frequent mechanical removals of large amounts of forest biomass for fire concerns. We present an ecoregion conservation assessment for robust conservation area design that factors in appropriate wildfire response to protect communities from increasing threats of climate-induced wildfires spreading into urban areas. We focused mainly on maintaining connectivity for endangered focal species (grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) and Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi)) along with protecting mature and old-growth (MOG) forests, Piñon (Pinus spp.)–Juniper (Juniperus spp.) Woodlands, and riparian areas. Over half the region is managed by federal agencies where new protected areas can be integrated with tribal co-management and prescribed burning, defensible space, and home hardening to protect communities from the growing threat of climate-induced wildfires. However, just 9% of the study area is currently protected, and even with the inclusion of proposed protected areas, only 24% would be protected, which is below 30 × 30 targets. The potential grizzly bear habitat, wolf habitat connectivity, and MOG forests (1.6 M ha (14.2%) of the study area; 18% protected) are concentrated mainly in the central and eastern portions of the MHE. There were 824 fires (2 to 228,065 ha) from 1984–2021, with 24% overlapping the wildland–urban interface. Regional temperatures have increased by 1.5 °C, with a 16% reduction in precipitation and stream flow since 1970 that under worst-case emission scenarios may increase temperatures another 3 to 8 °C by the century’s end. The unique biodiversity of the MHE can be better maintained in a rapidly changing climate via at least a three-fold increase in protected areas, co-management of focal species with tribes, and strategic use of fuel treatments nearest communities.

We conducted a multi-scaled Ecoregional Conservation Assessment for the Southern Rockies (~14.5 M ha) and its trailing edge, the Santa Fe Subregion (~2.2 M ha), from Wyoming to New Mexico, USA. We included a representation analysis of Existing Vegetation Types (EVTs), mature and old-growth forests (MOG), and four focal species—Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), North American wolverine (Gulo gulo luscus), Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida), and northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis)—in relation to 30 × 30 and 50 × 50 conservation targets. To integrate conservation targets with wildfire risk reduction to the built environment and climate change planning, we overlaid the location of wildfires and forest treatments in relation to the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) and included downscaled climate projections for a lower (RCP4.5) and higher (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Protected areas were highly skewed toward upper-elevation EVTs (most were >50% protected), underrepresented forest types (<30% protected), especially MOG (<22% protected) and riparian areas (~14% protected), and poorly represented habitats (73%) forest-thinning treatments over the past decade were >1 km from delineated WUI areas, well beyond the distance at which vegetation management can effectively reduce structure ignition risk (<50 m from structures). Extreme heat, drought, snowpack reductions, altered timing of peak stream flows, increasing wildfires, and potential shifts in the climate, favoring woodlands over conifer forests, may impact forest-dependent species, while declining snowpack may impact wolverines that den at upper elevations. Strategically targeting the built environment for fuel treatments would improve wildfire risk reduction and may allow for expansion of protected areas held up in controversy. Stepped-up protection for roadless areas, adoption of wilderness proposals, and greater protection for MOG and riparian forests are critical for meeting representation targets.

We conducted a multi-scaled Ecoregional Conservation Assessment for the Southern Rockies (~14.5M ha) and its trailing edge, the Santa Fe Subregion (~2.2M ha), Wyoming to New Mexico, USA. We included a representation analysis of Existing Vegetation Types (EVT), mature-old-growth forests (MOG), and four focal species—Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), North American wolverine (Gulo gulo luscus), Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida), and northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis)—in relation to 30 x 30 and 50 x 50 conservation targets. To integrate conservation targets with wildfire risk reduction to the built environment and climate change planning, we overlaid the location of wildfires and forest treatments in relation to the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) and included downscaled climate projections for a lower (RCP4.5) and higher (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. Protected areas were highly skewed toward upper elevation EVTs (most were >50% protected), underrepresented forest types (<30% protected), especially MOG (<22% protected) and riparian areas (~14% protected), and poorly represented habitat (73%) forest thinning treatments over the past decade were >1-km from delineated WUI areas, well beyond the distance at which vegetation management can effectively reduce structure ignition risk (< 50-m from structures). Extreme heat, drought, snowpack reductions, altered timing of peak stream flows, increasing wildfires, and potential shifts in the climate niche of woodlands over conifer forests may impact forest dependent species, while declining snowpack may impact wolverine that den in upper elevations. Strategically targeting the built environment for fuel treatments would improve wildfire risk reduction and may allow for expansion of protected areas held up in controversy. Stepped-up protections for roadless areas, adoption of wilderness proposals, and greater protections for MOG and riparian forests are critical for meeting representation targets.

The incorporation of climate refugia concepts in large-scale protection efforts (e.g., 30% protected by 2030, 50% by 2050) is needed to forestall the global extinction crisis. The 8.19 M ha Northern Rockies Ecoregion (NRE) of western Montana, northeastern Washington, and northern Idaho, USA, includes the 159,822 Yaak River Watershed (YRW) in northwest Montana, a proposed climate refugium that may buffer extreme climate change effects. Climate projections show temperature increases along with reduced summer precipitation, lowered spring snowpack, and increased wildfire susceptibility across the NRE but to a lesser extent in the YRE under an intermediate emissions scenario. Overall protection levels were quite low in the NRE (2.2% in GAP 1 or 2) and even lower in the YRW (1% of national forests; the USDA Forest Service manages most of the area). Approximately 32% of forests are mature but only 2.4% and 0.25% are protected (GAP 1 or 2) within the NRE and YRW, respectively. Habitat protection levels for eight focal forest species selected to reflect conservation priorities were generally low, with only wolverine (Gulo gulo) meeting conservation targets if roadless areas were better protected. Most (~75%) Forest Service fuel reduction treatments were >1 km from structures despite congressional funds aimed at the wildland–urban interface/intermix. Increased roadless area protections would close the lower bound (30%) target for most ecosystem types and focal species but still fall short of upper targets. We recommend coupling conservation targets with strategic investments in fuel reductions aimed at the innermost buffer around structures, while reducing logging and roadbuilding in priority areas and refugia.

The 8.19M ha Northern Rockies Ecoregion (NRE) of western Montana, northeastern Washington, and northern Idaho, USA, includes the 159,822 Yaak River Watershed (YRW) in northwest Montana, a proposed climate refugium. Regional climate projections show the NRE heating up, experiencing reduced summer precipitation, lowered spring snowpack, and increased wildfires, especially under a very high emissions pathway. Large-scale conservation proposals have stalled for decades, in part, due to the lack of an integrated approach to conservation target setting (e.g., 30% protected by 2030, 50% by 2050) that simultaneously addresses climate change planning and especially wildfire risk reduction. We conducted a comprehensive ecoregional conservation assessment that showed overall protection levels were quite low in the NRE (2.2% in GAP 1 or 2) and even lower in the YRW (1% of national forests, the USDA Forest Service manages most of the area). Approximately 32% of NRE forests are mature but only 2.4% is protected (GAP 1 or 2) with just 0.25% of mature forests protected within the YRW. Of the 8 focal forest species examined, habitat protection for all of them were well-below conservation targets with only wolverine (Gulo gulo) meeting the targets if roadless areas were better protected. Most (~75%) Forest Service fuel reduction treatments were >1 km from structures despite congressional funds aimed at the wildland-urban interface/intermix. Increased roadless area protections would close the lower bound (30%) conservation target for most ecosystem types, mature forests, and focal species but fall short of higher targets. We recommend coupling conservation targets with strategic investments in fuel reductions aimed at the innermost buffer around structures, while reducing logging and roadbuilding in priority areas.