The autonomous shipping industry is increasingly focusing on enhancing the safety and reliability of software-based systems. Conducting a risk assessment is a requirement for demonstrating the safety equivalence of autonomous ships based on such systems to conventional vessels. Traditional risk assessment models, however, primarily focus on hardware failures, often overlooking potential software-related failures and functional inadequacies. This study proposes a framework integrating Software Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), System–Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), and Bayesian Network (BN) for risk identification of autonomous ship software systems. The results of a case study reveal that the framework sufficiently addresses the multifaceted nature of risks related to software in autonomous ships. Based on the findings of this study, we suggest the need for standardization of software architecture development in the autonomous ship industry and highlight the necessity for an enhanced understanding of AI-specific risks and the development of tailored risk assessment methodologies.

Arctic navigation faces numerous challenges, including uncertain ice conditions, rapid weather changes, limited communication capabilities, and lack of search and rescue infrastructure, all of which increase the risks involved. According to an Arctic Council statistical report, a remarkable 2638 maritime accidents were recorded in Arctic waters between 2005 and 2017, showing a fluctuating upward trend. This study collected and analyzed ship accident data in Arctic waters to identify the various accident scenarios and primary risk factors that impact Arctic navigation safety. By utilizing data-driven algorithms, a model for predicting ship navigation accidents in Arctic waters was constructed, providing an in-depth understanding of the risk factors that make accidents more likely. The research findings are of practical significance for enhancing quantitative risk assessment, specifically focusing on the navigational risks in Arctic waters. The results of this study can assist maritime authorities and shipping companies in conducting risk analysis and implementing accident prevention measures for safe navigation in Arctic waters.