Mexico is one of the richest countries in amphibian species (420 spp.), with a high level of endemism (69%). The order Anura represents the most diverse and widespread of the three extant amphibian orders (257 spp.). The anurofauna of Mexico’s tropical dry forest ecosystem host a high proportion of the species and endemism registered in the country. In terms of conservation, both dry forests and amphibians are at risk due to climate change because it is expected that as the temperature becomes higher and precipitation decreases, this vegetation type may experience water stress. We applied the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate the potential current and future (year 2070) geographic distribution patterns of 95 endemic Mexican anuran species inhabiting the country’s tropical dry forests by considering two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5) and analyzed the potential distributional pattern changes. The results indicated that overall, species would experience enough of a significant warming effect to cause a reduction in the original distribution area, with 44% of species losing an average of 50% of their original range (9 spp. in threatened category); additionally, 22% of the species in the dry forest ecosystem will experience an average increase of almost 50% in their original area, two species will lose more than 80% of their range, and one will disappear.

Climate change threatens global biodiversity, with amphibians from climatically stable and geographically restricted ecosystems such as Mexico’s montane cloud forest (CF) being particularly vulnerable. This study evaluated the potential impacts of climate scenarios on the distribution and richness of 53 endemic anuran species. We used ecological niche models (MaxEnt) to project current and future distributions (year 2100) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and assessed species representativeness within federal Protected Natural Areas (PNAs). The results indicate that 71.7% of species already fall into an IUCN threat category. Widespread habitat contraction is observed under the climate projections, with average losses of 40.3% (SSP2-4.5) and 45.5% (SSP5-8.5). Twelve species (22.6%) could lose over 90% of their current distribution, suggesting a high risk of functional extinction. Only 15.3% of occurrence records currently fall within PNAs, and key reserves such as Los Tuxtlas and La Sepultura are projected to experience significant richness declines. These patterns are consistent with an “escalator to extinction” process driven by altitudinal compression of climatic niches. Adaptive conservation strategies are urgently needed, including the identification of climate microrefugia and the establishment of connectivity corridors to enhance the long-term persistence of endemic anurans under climate change.

Introduction: The Magdalena Rat, Xenomys nelsoni, is a rodent endemic to Mexico, whose distribution is restricted to dense tropical dry forests in a small region on the Pacific coast of Mexico. It is a poorly known species categorized as “Endangered” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This lack of knowledge and the high rates of deforestation of its habitat makes its conservation a priority. Objective: To summarize the historical records deposited in scientific collections, to create potential distribution maps, and to analyze the conservation status of the species. Methods: We obtained species occurrence data from literature and digital databases, analyzing them by the decade. We used GARP and MaxEnt software to generate the ecological niche models. The importance of the variables in the model was estimated using the Jackknife technique. Results: Over 129 years, 19 collectors registered 69 specimens, of which 65 are deposited in one national and seven international collections. Although the species has only been collected in Jalisco and Colima, the potential distribution for X. nelsoni also includes the state of Michoacán. Of this estimated area, only 1.5 % is in a Protected Natural Area. Conclusions: The results of the potential distribution could be used to verify the presence of the species in places where it has not been collected, such as the northern part of the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve and in some areas of the physiographic province Costas del Sur in the state of Michoacán. It is needed to increase samplings in the least studied regions predicted by the model and expand the area of protection. Introducción: La Rata de Magdalena, Xenomys nelsoni, es un roedor endémico de México, de distribución restringida a las selvas bajas caducifolias densas, en una pequeña región de la costa del Pacífico mexicano. Es una especie poco conocida, catalogada como "En Peligro" de acuerdo con la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (IUCN). Este desconocimiento unido a la alta tasa de deforestación de su hábitat hace que su conservación sea prioritaria. Objetivo: Realizar un recuento histórico de los registros depositados en las colecciones científicas, generar mapas de distribución potencial y analizar el estado de conservación de la especie. Método: Los datos de ocurrencia de las especies se obtuvieron de la literatura y bases de datos digitales y se analizaron por décadas. Se utilizaron los programas GARP y MaxEnt para generar los modelos de nicho ecológico. La importancia de las variables en el modelo se estimó mediante un análisis Jackknife. Resultados: A lo largo de 129 años 19 recolectores registraron 69 ejemplares, de los cuales 65 están depositados en siete colecciones internacionales y una nacional. Aunque la especie sólo se ha recolectado en Jalisco y Colima, la distribución potencial de X. nelsoni incluye también el estado de Michoacán. De esta área estimada, sólo el 1.5 % se encuentra dentro de un Área Natural Protegida. Conclusiones: Los resultados de la distribución potencial podrían ser utilizados para verificar la presencia de la especie en lugares donde no ha sido recolectada como el norte de la Reserva de la Biosfera Chamela-Cuixmala y en algunas zonas de la provincia fisiográfica Costas del Sur en el estado de Michoacán. Es necesario incrementar los muestreos en regiones poco estudiadas predichas por el modelo y aumentar el área de protección.