In keeping with China’s dual carbon goals, optimal low-carbon power system dispatch has become a necessary component of the greening of the power system. However, typically, research considers only the economics of such efforts. Based on our power flow analysis of the power grid and the correlation properties of carbon emission flow, an optimal power flow calculation model targeting the total carbon emission rate of the power system’s power generation cost, active network loss, and load and network loss was constructed. Next, the NSGA-III algorithm was used to solve the model, and the decision was to coordinate and optimize the output schemes of various types of power plants, such as wind, water, and thermal. The modified IEEE39 node simulation system was built with Matlab software (MATLAB R2020b). The results of the calculation showed that, compared to the traditional method of determining the optimal power flow, the proposed method reduced the system carbon emissions by 20% while the power generation cost increased by less than 2%, which proves the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.
Short-term load forecasting is a prerequisite for achieving intra-day energy management and optimal scheduling in integrated energy systems. Its prediction accuracy directly affects the stability and economy of the system during operation. To improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting, this paper proposes a multi-load forecasting method for integrated energy systems based on the Isolation Forest and dynamic orbit algorithm. First, a high-dimensional data matrix is constructed using the sliding window technique and the outliers in the high-dimensional data matrix are identified using Isolation Forest. Next, the hidden abnormal data within the time series are analyzed and repaired using the dynamic orbit algorithm. Then, the correlation analysis of the multivariate load and its weather data is carried out by the AR method and MIC method, and the high-dimensional feature matrix is constructed. Finally, the prediction values of the multi-load are generated based on the TCN-MMoL multi-task training network. Simulation analysis is conducted using the load data from a specific integrated energy system. The results demonstrate the proposed model’s ability to significantly improve load forecasting accuracy, thereby validating the correctness and effectiveness of this forecasting approach.