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The current trend of higher education for sustainable urban development links with parallel developments in urban governance and environmental pedagogy. Many programs and policies identify cities and citizens as key drivers of change for sustainable futures, however scholarly work on the related pedagogies is lacking. These endeavors are clearly present in the Tampere city-region, Finland. Supported by national educational and city-regional strategies, the city is promoting sustainable lifestyles and infrastructures by means of multistakeholder governance including citizen participation and sustainability education. This paper analyzes, as a case study of transdisciplinary sustainability education, a collaboration between Tampere University, a skateboarding high school, and the Hiedanranta urban district developed as a real-life laboratory of sustainable urban development. We explore the pedagogical dimensions of the collaboration by drawing from the theoretical perspective of ‘positive recognition’ and conceiving the Hiedanranta skatescape—a socio-physical entity formed around skateboarding—as a ‘boundary object’. The paper suggests urban environments act as boundary objects that enable productive collaboration between various actors when informed by pedagogies of positive recognition. In conclusion, we propose that the value of this approach, binding together multistakeholder governance and transdisciplinary learning, lies in its capacity to encourage novel forms of sustainable agency.
Kirsi Pauliina Kallio; Salla Jokela; Mikko Kyrönviita; Markus Laine; Jonathon Taylor. Skatescape in the Making: Developing Sustainable Urban Pedagogies through Transdisciplinary Education. Sustainability 2021, 13, 9561 .
AMA StyleKirsi Pauliina Kallio, Salla Jokela, Mikko Kyrönviita, Markus Laine, Jonathon Taylor. Skatescape in the Making: Developing Sustainable Urban Pedagogies through Transdisciplinary Education. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (17):9561.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKirsi Pauliina Kallio; Salla Jokela; Mikko Kyrönviita; Markus Laine; Jonathon Taylor. 2021. "Skatescape in the Making: Developing Sustainable Urban Pedagogies through Transdisciplinary Education." Sustainability 13, no. 17: 9561.
Climate change means the UK will experience warmer winters and hotter summers in the future. Concurrent energy efficiency improvements to housing may modify indoor exposures to heat or cold, while population aging may increase susceptibility to temperature-related mortality. We estimate heat and cold mortality and energy consumption in London for typical (non-extreme) future climates, given projected changes in population and housing. Building physics models are used to simulate summertime and wintertime indoor temperatures and space heating energy consumption of London dwellings for ‘baseline’ (2005–2014) and future (2030s, 2050s) periods using data from the English Housing Survey, historical weather data, and projected future weather data with temperatures representative of ‘typical’ years. Linking to population projections, we calculate future heat and cold attributable mortality and energy consumption with demolition, construction, and alternative scenarios of energy efficiency retrofit. At current retrofit rates, around 168–174 annual cold-related deaths per million population would typically be avoided by the 2050s, or 261–269 deaths per million under ambitious retrofit rates. Annual heat deaths would typically increase by 1 per million per year under the current retrofit rate, and 12–13 per million under ambitious rates without population adaptation to heat. During typical future summers, an estimated 38–73% of heat-related deaths can be avoided using external shutters on windows, with their effectiveness lower during hotter weather. Despite warmer winters, ambitious retrofit rates are necessary to reduce typical annual energy consumption for heating below baseline levels, assuming no improvement in heating system efficiencies. Concerns over future overheating in energy efficient housing are valid but increases in heat attributable mortality during typical and hot (but not extreme) summers are more than offset by significant reductions in cold mortality and easily mitigated using passive measures. More ambitious retrofit rates are critical to reduce energy consumption and offer co-benefits for reducing cold-related mortality.
Jonathon Taylor; Phil Symonds; Clare Heaviside; Zaid Chalabi; Mike Davies; Paul Wilkinson. Projecting the impacts of housing on temperature-related mortality in London during typical future years. Energy and Buildings 2021, 249, 111233 .
AMA StyleJonathon Taylor, Phil Symonds, Clare Heaviside, Zaid Chalabi, Mike Davies, Paul Wilkinson. Projecting the impacts of housing on temperature-related mortality in London during typical future years. Energy and Buildings. 2021; 249 ():111233.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJonathon Taylor; Phil Symonds; Clare Heaviside; Zaid Chalabi; Mike Davies; Paul Wilkinson. 2021. "Projecting the impacts of housing on temperature-related mortality in London during typical future years." Energy and Buildings 249, no. : 111233.
Background: A growing number of cities, including Greater London, have set ambitious targets, including detailed policies and implementation plans, to reach global goals on sustainability, health, and climate change. Here we present a tool for a rapid assessment of the magnitude of impact of specific policy initiatives to reach these targets. The decision-support tool simultaneously quantifies the environmental and health impacts of specified selected policies. Methods: The ‘Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT)’ tool was applied to Greater London. CRAFT quantifies the effects of ten environmental policies on changes in (1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, (2) exposures to environmental hazards, (3) travel-related physical activity, and (4) mortality (the number of attributable deaths avoided in one typical year). Publicly available data and epidemiological evidence were used to make rapid quantitative estimates of these effects based on proportional reductions in GHG emissions and environmental exposures from current baseline levels and to compute the mortality impacts. Results: The CRAFT tool estimates that, of roughly 50,000 annual deaths in Greater London, the modelled hazards (PM2.5 (from indoor and outdoor sources), outdoor NO2, indoor radon, cold, overheating) and low travel-related physical activity are responsible for approximately 10,000 premature environment-related deaths. Implementing the selected polices could reduce the annual mortality number by about 20% (~1,900 deaths) by 2050. The majority of these deaths (1,700) may be avoided through increased uptake in active travel. Thus, out of ten environmental policies, the ‘active travel’ policy provides the greatest health benefit. Also, implementing the ten policies results in a GHG reduction of around 90%. Conclusions: The CRAFT tool quantifies the effects of city policies on reducing GHG emissions, decreasing environmental health hazards, and improving public health. The tool has potential value for policy makers through providing quantitative estimates of health impacts to support and prioritise policy options.
Phil Symonds; James Milner; Nahid Mohajeri; Juliette Aplin; Joanna Hale; Simon J Lloyd; Henry Fremont; Sam Younkin; Clive Shrubsole; Lawrie Robertson; Jonathon Taylor; Nici Zimmermann; Paul Wilkinson; Mike Davies. A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT). Wellcome Open Research 2021, 5, 269 .
AMA StylePhil Symonds, James Milner, Nahid Mohajeri, Juliette Aplin, Joanna Hale, Simon J Lloyd, Henry Fremont, Sam Younkin, Clive Shrubsole, Lawrie Robertson, Jonathon Taylor, Nici Zimmermann, Paul Wilkinson, Mike Davies. A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT). Wellcome Open Research. 2021; 5 ():269.
Chicago/Turabian StylePhil Symonds; James Milner; Nahid Mohajeri; Juliette Aplin; Joanna Hale; Simon J Lloyd; Henry Fremont; Sam Younkin; Clive Shrubsole; Lawrie Robertson; Jonathon Taylor; Nici Zimmermann; Paul Wilkinson; Mike Davies. 2021. "A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT)." Wellcome Open Research 5, no. : 269.
The Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health (CUSSH) project is a global research programme on the complex systemic connections between urban development and health. Through transdisciplinary methods it will develop critical evidence on how to achieve the far-reaching transformation of cities needed to address vital environmental imperatives for planetary health in the 21st century. CUSSH’s core components include: (i) a review of evidence on the effects of climate actions (both mitigation and adaptation) and factors influencing their implementation in urban settings; (ii) the development and application of methods for tracking the progress of cities towards sustainability and health goals; (iii) the development and application of models to assess the impact on population health, health inequalities, socio-economic development and environmental parameters of urban development strategies, in order to support policy decisions; (iv) iterative in-depth engagements with stakeholders in partner cities in low-, middle- and high-income settings, using systems-based participatory methods, to test and support the implementation of the transformative changes needed to meet local and global health and sustainability objectives; (v) a programme of public engagement and capacity building. Through these steps, the programme will provide transferable evidence on how to accelerate actions essential to achieving population-level health and global climate goals through, amongst others, changing cities’ energy provision, transport infrastructure, green infrastructure, air quality, waste management and housing.
Michael Davies; Kristine Belesova; Melanie Crane; Joanna Hale; Andy Haines; Emma Hutchinson; Gregor Kiesewetter; Blessing Mberu; Nahid Mohajeri; Susan Michie; James Milner; Gemma Moore; David Osrin; Helen Pineo; Irene Pluchinotta; Aarathi Prasad; Giuseppe Salvia; Phil Symonds; Jonathon Taylor; Catalina Turcu; Ioanna Tsoulou; Nici Zimmermann; Paul Wilkinson. The CUSSH programme: learning how to support cities’ transformational change towards health and sustainability. Wellcome Open Research 2021, 6, 100 .
AMA StyleMichael Davies, Kristine Belesova, Melanie Crane, Joanna Hale, Andy Haines, Emma Hutchinson, Gregor Kiesewetter, Blessing Mberu, Nahid Mohajeri, Susan Michie, James Milner, Gemma Moore, David Osrin, Helen Pineo, Irene Pluchinotta, Aarathi Prasad, Giuseppe Salvia, Phil Symonds, Jonathon Taylor, Catalina Turcu, Ioanna Tsoulou, Nici Zimmermann, Paul Wilkinson. The CUSSH programme: learning how to support cities’ transformational change towards health and sustainability. Wellcome Open Research. 2021; 6 ():100.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMichael Davies; Kristine Belesova; Melanie Crane; Joanna Hale; Andy Haines; Emma Hutchinson; Gregor Kiesewetter; Blessing Mberu; Nahid Mohajeri; Susan Michie; James Milner; Gemma Moore; David Osrin; Helen Pineo; Irene Pluchinotta; Aarathi Prasad; Giuseppe Salvia; Phil Symonds; Jonathon Taylor; Catalina Turcu; Ioanna Tsoulou; Nici Zimmermann; Paul Wilkinson. 2021. "The CUSSH programme: learning how to support cities’ transformational change towards health and sustainability." Wellcome Open Research 6, no. : 100.
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, a nationwide lockdown was imposed in the United Kingdom (UK) on March 23, 2020. These sudden control measures led to radical changes in human activities in the Greater London Area (GLA). During this lockdown, transportation use was significantly reduced and non-key workers were required to work from home. This study aims to understand how population exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 changed spatially and temporally across London, in different microenvironments, following the lockdown period relative to the previous three-year average in the same calendar period. Our research shows that population exposure to NO2 declined significantly (52.3% ± 6.1%), while population exposure to PM2.5 showed a smaller relative reduction (15.7% ± 4.1%). Changes in population activity had the strongest relative influence on exposure levels during morning rush hours, when prior to the lockdown a large percentage of people would normally commute or be at the workplace. In particular, a very high exposure decrease was observed for both pollutants (approximately 66% for NO2 and 19% for PM2.5) at 08:00am, consistent with the radical changes in population commuting. The infiltration of outdoor air pollution into housing modifies the degree of exposure change both temporally and spatially. Moreover, this study shows that the impacts on air pollution exposure vary across groups with different socioeconomic status (SES), with a disproportionate positive effect on the areas of the city home to more economically deprived communities.
Vasilis Kazakos; Jonathon Taylor; Zhiwen Luo. Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on NO2 and PM2.5 exposure inequalities in London, UK. Environmental Research 2021, 198, 111236 .
AMA StyleVasilis Kazakos, Jonathon Taylor, Zhiwen Luo. Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on NO2 and PM2.5 exposure inequalities in London, UK. Environmental Research. 2021; 198 ():111236.
Chicago/Turabian StyleVasilis Kazakos; Jonathon Taylor; Zhiwen Luo. 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on NO2 and PM2.5 exposure inequalities in London, UK." Environmental Research 198, no. : 111236.
Developing the economic, environmental, and social sustainability of urban environments is challenging due to the complex and interconnected nature of the context and objectives. In order to be successful in this challenging environment, professionals working in the urban development arena should have a holistic understanding of the different pillars of sustainable development, as well as various competencies and skills. This paper looks at sustainable urban development (SUD) from the perspective of the skills and competencies required and identifies effective pedagogic practices that could help educate future professionals. In particular, we explore interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary learning, reflective thinking, and experiential learning, which are needed for understanding various aspects of a complex phenomenon, collaborating with professionals from different fields and coming up with novel and constructive ways of solving complex problems. We first examine these through reviewing and analyzing relevant literature on education for sustainable development, with a focus on SUD. Then, we explore the application of these approaches in practice by describing and analyzing a newly introduced degree program at Tampere University, Finland.
Jonathon Taylor; Salla Jokela; Markus Laine; Juho Rajaniemi; Pekka Jokinen; Liisa Häikiö; Antti Lönnqvist. Learning and Teaching Interdisciplinary Skills in Sustainable Urban Development—The Case of Tampere University, Finland. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1180 .
AMA StyleJonathon Taylor, Salla Jokela, Markus Laine, Juho Rajaniemi, Pekka Jokinen, Liisa Häikiö, Antti Lönnqvist. Learning and Teaching Interdisciplinary Skills in Sustainable Urban Development—The Case of Tampere University, Finland. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (3):1180.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJonathon Taylor; Salla Jokela; Markus Laine; Juho Rajaniemi; Pekka Jokinen; Liisa Häikiö; Antti Lönnqvist. 2021. "Learning and Teaching Interdisciplinary Skills in Sustainable Urban Development—The Case of Tampere University, Finland." Sustainability 13, no. 3: 1180.
There is increasing public and political awareness of the impact of air pollution on public health. Strong scientific evidence links exposure to air pollution with morbidity and mortality. Deprived communities may be more affected, however, with limited evidence on how deprivation may influence their personal exposure to air pollution, both outdoors and indoors. This paper describes different factors that may lead to low-income households being exposed to higher levels of indoor air pollution than the general population, using available data and models for London (i.e. living in areas of higher outdoor air pollution, in poor-quality housing, undertaking more pollution-generating activities indoors and spending more time indoors). A systems approach is used to show how these factors lead to systemic exposure inequalities, with low-income households having limited opportunities to improve their indoor air quality. This paper can inform actions and public policies to reduce environmental health inequalities, considering both indoor and outdoor air.
Lauren Ferguson; Jonathon Taylor; Ke Zhou; Clive Shrubsole; Phil Symonds; Mike Davies; Sani Dimitroulopoulou. Systemic inequalities in indoor air pollution exposure in London, UK. Buildings and Cities 2021, 2, 425 -448.
AMA StyleLauren Ferguson, Jonathon Taylor, Ke Zhou, Clive Shrubsole, Phil Symonds, Mike Davies, Sani Dimitroulopoulou. Systemic inequalities in indoor air pollution exposure in London, UK. Buildings and Cities. 2021; 2 (1):425-448.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLauren Ferguson; Jonathon Taylor; Ke Zhou; Clive Shrubsole; Phil Symonds; Mike Davies; Sani Dimitroulopoulou. 2021. "Systemic inequalities in indoor air pollution exposure in London, UK." Buildings and Cities 2, no. 1: 425-448.
Background: A growing number of cities, including Greater London, have set ambitious targets, including detailed policies and implementation plans, to reach global goals on sustainability, health, and climate change. Here we present a tool for a rapid assessment of the magnitude of impact of specific policy initiatives to reach these targets. The decision-support tool simultaneously quantifies the environmental and health impacts of specified selected policies. Methods: The ‘Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT)’ tool was applied to Greater London. CRAFT quantifies the effects of ten environmental policies on changes in (1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, (2) exposures to environmental hazards, (3) travel-related physical activity, and (4) mortality (the number of attributable deaths avoided in one typical year). Publicly available data and epidemiological evidence were used to make rapid quantitative estimates of these effects based on proportional reductions in GHG emissions and environmental exposures from current baseline levels and to compute the mortality impacts. Results: The CRAFT tool estimates that, of roughly 50,000 annual deaths in Greater London, the modelled hazards (PM2.5 (from indoor and outdoor sources), outdoor NO2, indoor radon, cold, overheating) and low travel-related physical activity are responsible for approximately 10,000 premature environment-related deaths. Implementing the selected polices could reduce the annual mortality number by about 20% (~1,900 deaths) by 2050. The majority of these deaths (1,700) may be avoided through increased uptake in active travel. Thus, out of ten environmental policies, the ‘active travel’ policy provides the greatest health benefit. Also, implementing the ten policies results in a GHG reduction of around 90%. Conclusions: The CRAFT tool quantifies the effects of city policies on reducing GHG emissions, decreasing environmental health hazards, and improving public health. The tool has potential value for policy makers through providing quantitative estimates of health impacts to support and prioritise policy options.
Phil Symonds; James Milner; Nahid Mohajeri; Juliette Aplin; Joanna Hale; Simon J Lloyd; Henry Fremont; Sam Younkin; Clive Shrubsole; Lawrie Robertson; Jonathon Taylor; Nici Zimmermann; Paul Wilkinson; Mike Davies. A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT). Wellcome Open Research 2020, 5, 269 .
AMA StylePhil Symonds, James Milner, Nahid Mohajeri, Juliette Aplin, Joanna Hale, Simon J Lloyd, Henry Fremont, Sam Younkin, Clive Shrubsole, Lawrie Robertson, Jonathon Taylor, Nici Zimmermann, Paul Wilkinson, Mike Davies. A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT). Wellcome Open Research. 2020; 5 ():269.
Chicago/Turabian StylePhil Symonds; James Milner; Nahid Mohajeri; Juliette Aplin; Joanna Hale; Simon J Lloyd; Henry Fremont; Sam Younkin; Clive Shrubsole; Lawrie Robertson; Jonathon Taylor; Nici Zimmermann; Paul Wilkinson; Mike Davies. 2020. "A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT)." Wellcome Open Research 5, no. : 269.
Improved housing has the potential to advance health and contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals. Research examining housing, health and energy use in low-income countries is limited; understanding these connections is vital to inform interventions for healthy sustainable human settlements. This paper investigates the low-income setting of Delhi, where rapid urbanisation, a varied climate, high pollution levels, and a wide variation in housing quality could result in significant energy use and health risks. Drawing on approaches from health and the built environment and existing data and literature, a characterisation of energy use and health risks for Delhi’s housing stock is completed. Four broad settlement types were used to classify Delhi housing and energy use calculations and health risk assessment were performed for each variant. Energy use is estimated to be nearly two times higher per household among planned housing compared with other settlement types. Health risks, however, are found to be largest within informal slum settlements, with important contributions from heat and particulate matter across all settlements. This paper highlights intervention priorities and outlines the need for extensive further research, particularly through data gathering, to establish evidence to accelerate achieving healthy, sustainable and equitable housing in Delhi.
Emily Nix; Jonathon Taylor; Payel Das; Marcella Ucci; Zaid Chalabi; Clive Shrubsole; Michael Davies; Anna Mavrogianni; James Milner; Paul Wilkinson. Housing, health and energy: a characterisation of risks and priorities across Delhi’s diverse settlements. Cities & Health 2020, 1 -22.
AMA StyleEmily Nix, Jonathon Taylor, Payel Das, Marcella Ucci, Zaid Chalabi, Clive Shrubsole, Michael Davies, Anna Mavrogianni, James Milner, Paul Wilkinson. Housing, health and energy: a characterisation of risks and priorities across Delhi’s diverse settlements. Cities & Health. 2020; ():1-22.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEmily Nix; Jonathon Taylor; Payel Das; Marcella Ucci; Zaid Chalabi; Clive Shrubsole; Michael Davies; Anna Mavrogianni; James Milner; Paul Wilkinson. 2020. "Housing, health and energy: a characterisation of risks and priorities across Delhi’s diverse settlements." Cities & Health , no. : 1-22.
Disparities in outdoor air pollution exposure between individuals of differing socio-economic status is a growing area of research, widely explored in the environmental health literature. However, in developed countries, around 80% of time is spent indoors, meaning indoor air pollution may be a better proxy for personal exposure. Building characteristics - such as build quality, volume and ventilation - and occupant behaviour, mean indoor air pollution may also vary across socio-economic groups, leading to health inequalities. Much of the existing literature has focused on inequalities in exposure to outdoor air pollution, and there is thus a lack of an evidence base reviewing data for indoor environments. In this study, a scoping review of the literature on indoor air pollution exposures across different socio-economic groups is performed, examining evidence from both monitoring and modelling studies in the developed world. The literature was reviewed, identifying different indoor pollutants, definitions for socio-economic status and pre- and post- housing interventions. Based on the review, the study proposes a modelling methodology for evaluating the effects of environmental policies on different socio-economic populations. Using a sample size calculation, obstacles in obtaining sufficiently large samples of monitored data are demonstrated. A modelling framework for the rapid quantification of daily home exposure is then outlined as a proof of concept. While significant additional research is required to examine inequalities in indoor exposures, modelling approaches may provide opportunities to quantify exposure disparities due to housing and behaviours across populations of different socio-economic status.
Lauren Ferguson; Jonathon Taylor; Michael Davies; Clive Shrubsole; Phil Symonds; Sani Dimitroulopoulou. Exposure to indoor air pollution across socio-economic groups in high-income countries: A scoping review of the literature and a modelling methodology. Environment International 2020, 143, 105748 .
AMA StyleLauren Ferguson, Jonathon Taylor, Michael Davies, Clive Shrubsole, Phil Symonds, Sani Dimitroulopoulou. Exposure to indoor air pollution across socio-economic groups in high-income countries: A scoping review of the literature and a modelling methodology. Environment International. 2020; 143 ():105748.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLauren Ferguson; Jonathon Taylor; Michael Davies; Clive Shrubsole; Phil Symonds; Sani Dimitroulopoulou. 2020. "Exposure to indoor air pollution across socio-economic groups in high-income countries: A scoping review of the literature and a modelling methodology." Environment International 143, no. : 105748.
The Lancet Countdown is an international, multidisciplinary collaboration, dedicated to monitoring the evolving health profile of climate change, and providing an independent assessment of the delivery of commitments made by governments worldwide under the Paris Agreement.
Nick Watts; Markus Amann; Nigel Arnell; Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson; Kristine Belesova; Maxwell Boykoff; Peter Byass; Wenjia Cai; Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum; Stuart Capstick; Jonathan Chambers; Carole Dalin; Meaghan Daly; Niheer Dasandi; Michael Davies; Paul Drummond; Robert Dubrow; Kristie L Ebi; Matthew Eckelman; Paul Ekins; Luis E Escobar; Lucia Fernandez Montoya; Lucien Georgeson; Hilary Graham; Paul Haggar; Ian Hamilton; Stella Hartinger; Jeremy Hess; Ilan Kelman; Gregor Kiesewetter; Tord Kjellstrom; Dominic Kniveton; Bruno Lemke; Yang Liu; Melissa Lott; Rachel Lowe; Maquins Odhiambo Sewe; Jaime Martinez-Urtaza; Mark Maslin; Lucy McAllister; Alice McGushin; Slava Jankin Mikhaylov; James Milner; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Karyn Morrissey; Kris Murray; Simon Munzert; Maria Nilsson; Tara Neville; Tadj Oreszczyn; Fereidoon Owfi; Olivia Pearman; David Pencheon; Dung Phung; Steve Pye; Ruth Quinn; Mahnaz Rabbaniha; Elizabeth Robinson; Joacim Rocklöv; Jan C Semenza; Jodi Sherman; Joy Shumake-Guillemot; Meisam Tabatabaei; Jonathon Taylor; Joaquin Trinanes; Paul Wilkinson; Anthony Costello; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery. The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate. The Lancet 2019, 394, 1836 -1878.
AMA StyleNick Watts, Markus Amann, Nigel Arnell, Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Kristine Belesova, Maxwell Boykoff, Peter Byass, Wenjia Cai, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Stuart Capstick, Jonathan Chambers, Carole Dalin, Meaghan Daly, Niheer Dasandi, Michael Davies, Paul Drummond, Robert Dubrow, Kristie L Ebi, Matthew Eckelman, Paul Ekins, Luis E Escobar, Lucia Fernandez Montoya, Lucien Georgeson, Hilary Graham, Paul Haggar, Ian Hamilton, Stella Hartinger, Jeremy Hess, Ilan Kelman, Gregor Kiesewetter, Tord Kjellstrom, Dominic Kniveton, Bruno Lemke, Yang Liu, Melissa Lott, Rachel Lowe, Maquins Odhiambo Sewe, Jaime Martinez-Urtaza, Mark Maslin, Lucy McAllister, Alice McGushin, Slava Jankin Mikhaylov, James Milner, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Karyn Morrissey, Kris Murray, Simon Munzert, Maria Nilsson, Tara Neville, Tadj Oreszczyn, Fereidoon Owfi, Olivia Pearman, David Pencheon, Dung Phung, Steve Pye, Ruth Quinn, Mahnaz Rabbaniha, Elizabeth Robinson, Joacim Rocklöv, Jan C Semenza, Jodi Sherman, Joy Shumake-Guillemot, Meisam Tabatabaei, Jonathon Taylor, Joaquin Trinanes, Paul Wilkinson, Anthony Costello, Peng Gong, Hugh Montgomery. The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate. The Lancet. 2019; 394 (10211):1836-1878.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNick Watts; Markus Amann; Nigel Arnell; Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson; Kristine Belesova; Maxwell Boykoff; Peter Byass; Wenjia Cai; Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum; Stuart Capstick; Jonathan Chambers; Carole Dalin; Meaghan Daly; Niheer Dasandi; Michael Davies; Paul Drummond; Robert Dubrow; Kristie L Ebi; Matthew Eckelman; Paul Ekins; Luis E Escobar; Lucia Fernandez Montoya; Lucien Georgeson; Hilary Graham; Paul Haggar; Ian Hamilton; Stella Hartinger; Jeremy Hess; Ilan Kelman; Gregor Kiesewetter; Tord Kjellstrom; Dominic Kniveton; Bruno Lemke; Yang Liu; Melissa Lott; Rachel Lowe; Maquins Odhiambo Sewe; Jaime Martinez-Urtaza; Mark Maslin; Lucy McAllister; Alice McGushin; Slava Jankin Mikhaylov; James Milner; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Karyn Morrissey; Kris Murray; Simon Munzert; Maria Nilsson; Tara Neville; Tadj Oreszczyn; Fereidoon Owfi; Olivia Pearman; David Pencheon; Dung Phung; Steve Pye; Ruth Quinn; Mahnaz Rabbaniha; Elizabeth Robinson; Joacim Rocklöv; Jan C Semenza; Jodi Sherman; Joy Shumake-Guillemot; Meisam Tabatabaei; Jonathon Taylor; Joaquin Trinanes; Paul Wilkinson; Anthony Costello; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery. 2019. "The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate." The Lancet 394, no. 10211: 1836-1878.
Management of the natural and built environments can help reduce the health impacts of climate change. This is particularly relevant in large cities where urban heat island makes cities warmer than the surrounding areas. We investigate how urban vegetation, housing characteristics and socio-economic factors modify the association between heat exposure and mortality in a large urban area. We linked 185,397 death records from the Greater London area during May-Sept 2007–2016 to a high resolution daily temperature dataset. We then applied conditional logistic regression within a case-crossover design to estimate the odds of death from heat exposure by individual (age, sex) and local area factors: land-use type, natural environment (vegetation index, tree cover, domestic garden), built environment (indoor temperature, housing type, lone occupancy) and socio-economic factors (deprivation, English language, level of employment and prevalence of ill-health). Temperatures were higher in neighbourhoods with lower levels of urban vegetation and with higher levels of income deprivation, social-rented housing, and non-native English speakers. Heat-related mortality increased with temperature increase (Odds Ratio (OR), 95% CI = 1.039, 1.036–1.043 per 1 °C temperature increase). Vegetation cover showed the greatest modification effect, for example the odds of heat-related mortality in quartiles with the highest and lowest tree cover were OR, 95%CI 1.033, 1.026–1.039 and 1.043, 1.037–1.050 respectively. None of the socio-economic variables were a significant modifier of heat-related mortality. We demonstrate that urban vegetation can modify the mortality risk associated with heat exposure. These findings make an important contribution towards informing city-level climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.
Peninah Murage; Sari Kovats; Christophe Sarran; Jonathon Taylor; Rachel McInnes; Shakoor Hajat. What individual and neighbourhood-level factors increase the risk of heat-related mortality? A case-crossover study of over 185,000 deaths in London using high-resolution climate datasets. Environment International 2019, 134, 105292 .
AMA StylePeninah Murage, Sari Kovats, Christophe Sarran, Jonathon Taylor, Rachel McInnes, Shakoor Hajat. What individual and neighbourhood-level factors increase the risk of heat-related mortality? A case-crossover study of over 185,000 deaths in London using high-resolution climate datasets. Environment International. 2019; 134 ():105292.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeninah Murage; Sari Kovats; Christophe Sarran; Jonathon Taylor; Rachel McInnes; Shakoor Hajat. 2019. "What individual and neighbourhood-level factors increase the risk of heat-related mortality? A case-crossover study of over 185,000 deaths in London using high-resolution climate datasets." Environment International 134, no. : 105292.
Fuel poverty affects up to 35% of European homes, which represents a significant burden on society and healthcare systems. Draught proofing homes to prevent heat loss, improved glazing, insulation and heating (energy efficiency measures) can make more homes more affordable to heat. This has prompted significant investment in energy efficiency upgrades for around 40% of UK households to reduce the impact of fuel poverty. Despite some inconsistent evidence, household energy efficiency interventions can improve cardiovascular and respiratory health outcomes. However, the health benefits of these interventions have not been fully explored; this is the focus of this study. In this cross sectional ecological study, we conducted two sets of analyses at different spatial resolution to explore population data on housing energy efficiency measures and hospital admissions at the area-level (counts grouped over a 3-year period). Housing data were obtained from three data sets covering housing across England (Household Energy Efficiency Database), Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) and, in the South West of England, the Devon Home Analytics Portal. These databases provided data aggregated to Lower Area Super Output Area and postcode level (Home Analytics Portal only). These datasets provided measures of both state (e.g. EPC ratings) and intervention (e.g. number of boiler replacements), aggregated spatially and temporally to enable cross-sectional analyses with health outcome data. Hospital admissions for adult (over 18 years) asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) were obtained from the Hospital Episode Statistics database for the national (1st April 2011 to 31st March 2014) and Devon, South West of England (1st April 2014 to 31st March 2017) analyses. Descriptive statistics and regression models were used to describe the associations between small area household energy efficiency measures and hospital admissions. Three main analyses were undertaken to investigate the relationships between; 1) household energy efficiency improvements (i.e. improved glazing, insulation and boiler upgrades); 2) higher levels of energy efficiency ratings (measured by Energy Performance Certificate ratings); 3) energy efficiency improvements and ratings (i.e. physical improvements and rating assessed by the Standard Assessment Procedure) and hospital admissions. In the national analyses, household energy performance certificate ratings ranged from 37 to 83 (mean 61.98; Standard Deviation 5.24). There were a total of 312,837 emergency admissions for asthma, 587,770 for COPD and 839,416 for CVD. While analyses for individual energy efficiency metrics (i.e. boiler upgrades, draught proofing, glazing, loft and wall insulation) were mixed; a unit increase in mean energy performance rating was associated with increases of around 0.5% in asthma and CVD admissions, and 1% higher COPD admission rates. Admission rates were also influenced by the type of dwelling, tenure status (e.g. home owner versus renting), living in a rural area, and minimum winter temperature. Despite a range of limitations and some mixed and contrasting findings across the national and local analyses, there was some evidence that areas with more energy efficiency improvements resulted in higher admission rates for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. This builds on existing evidence highlighting the complex relationships between health and housing. While energy efficiency measures can improve health outcomes (especially when targeting those with chronic respiratory illness), reduced household ventilation rates can impact indoor air quality for example and increase the risk of diseases such as asthma. Alternatively, these findings could be due to the ecological study design, reverse causality, or the non-detection of more vulnerable subpopulations, as well as the targeting of areas with poor housing stock, low income households, and the lack of “whole house approaches” when retrofitting the existing housing stock. To be sustainable, household energy efficiency policies and resulting interventions must account for whole house approaches (i.e. consideration of the whole house and occupant lifestyles). These must consider more alternative ‘greener’ and more sustainable measures, which are capable of accounting for variable lifestyles, as well as the need for adequate heating and ventilation. Larger natural experiments and more complex modelling are needed to further investigate the impact of ongoing dramatic changes in the housing stock and health. This study supports the need for more holistic approaches to delivering healthier indoor environments, which must consider a dynamic and complex system with multiple interactions between a range of interrelated factors. These need to consider the drivers and pressures (e.g. quality of the built environment and resident behaviours) resulting in environmental exposures and adverse health outcomes.
R.A. Sharpe; Kathryn Machray; L.E. Fleming; Timothy Taylor; W. Henley; T. Chenore; I. Hutchcroft; Jonathon Taylor; C. Heaviside; B.W. Wheeler. Household energy efficiency and health: Area-level analysis of hospital admissions in England. Environment International 2019, 133, 105164 .
AMA StyleR.A. Sharpe, Kathryn Machray, L.E. Fleming, Timothy Taylor, W. Henley, T. Chenore, I. Hutchcroft, Jonathon Taylor, C. Heaviside, B.W. Wheeler. Household energy efficiency and health: Area-level analysis of hospital admissions in England. Environment International. 2019; 133 ():105164.
Chicago/Turabian StyleR.A. Sharpe; Kathryn Machray; L.E. Fleming; Timothy Taylor; W. Henley; T. Chenore; I. Hutchcroft; Jonathon Taylor; C. Heaviside; B.W. Wheeler. 2019. "Household energy efficiency and health: Area-level analysis of hospital admissions in England." Environment International 133, no. : 105164.
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recognise the critical need to improve population health and environmental sustainability. This paper describes the development of a microsimulation model, MicroEnv, aimed at quantifying the impact of environmental exposures on health as an aid to selecting policies likely to have greatest benefit. Its methods allow the integration of morbidity and mortality outcomes and the generation of results at high spatial resolution. We illustrate its application to the assessment of the impact of air pollution on health in London. Simulations are performed at Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA), the smallest geographic unit (population of around 1500 inhabitants) for which detailed socio-demographic data are routinely available in the UK. The health of each individual in these LSOAs is simulated year-by-year using a health-state-transition model, where transition probabilities from one state to another are based on published statistics modified by relative risks that reflect the effect of environmental exposures. This is done through linkage of the simulated population in each LSOA with 1 × 1 km annual average PM2.5 concentrations and area-based deprivation indices. Air pollution is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, and improving air quality is critical to the SDGs for Health (Goal 3) and Cities (Goal 11). The evidence of MicroEnv is aimed at providing better understanding of the benefits for population health and health inequalities of policy actions that affect exposure such as air quality, and thus to help shape policy decisions. Future work will extend the model to integrate other environmental determinants of health.
Phil Symonds; Emma Hutchinson; Andrew Ibbetson; Jonathon Taylor; James Milner; Zaid Chalabi; Michael Davies; Paul Wilkinson. MicroEnv: A microsimulation model for quantifying the impacts of environmental policies on population health and health inequalities. Science of The Total Environment 2019, 697, 134105 .
AMA StylePhil Symonds, Emma Hutchinson, Andrew Ibbetson, Jonathon Taylor, James Milner, Zaid Chalabi, Michael Davies, Paul Wilkinson. MicroEnv: A microsimulation model for quantifying the impacts of environmental policies on population health and health inequalities. Science of The Total Environment. 2019; 697 ():134105.
Chicago/Turabian StylePhil Symonds; Emma Hutchinson; Andrew Ibbetson; Jonathon Taylor; James Milner; Zaid Chalabi; Michael Davies; Paul Wilkinson. 2019. "MicroEnv: A microsimulation model for quantifying the impacts of environmental policies on population health and health inequalities." Science of The Total Environment 697, no. : 134105.
In the UK, there has been an increase in the number of loft conversions, driven by demands for increased floor areas of dwellings to accommodate more individuals or increase property values. While rooms directly underneath roofs are known to have increased overheating risks, there is little research available that quantifies this risk, and how to mitigate it cost-effectively. This paper seeks to evaluate overheating risks in loft conversions, using integrated environmental solutions virtual environment to dynamically simulate indoor temperatures in a semi-detached dwelling in London, UK, under current and future (2050s and 2080s medium and high emissions) climate scenarios. Adaptive overheating risk and energy consumption are calculated with and without passive overheating adaptations that reduce solar gains, increase ventilation, or add thermal insulation. Marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) are then used to select the most cost-effective adaptations based on installation and ongoing energy consumption costs. Results estimate 11,340–12,210 more summertime Category I overheating degree-hours for the loft than conventional bedrooms in the dwelling under the current climate; total category I loft overheating degree-hours may increase to 20,319 by 2080. While external shutters and night-purge ventilation were the most effective at reducing overheating degree-hours (96% and 89%, respectively), the most cost-effective solutions considering capital and ongoing costs are ventilation strategies, including night-time purge ventilation, advance ventilation and cross ventilation. Passive adaptations are not capable of eliminating overheating entirely, and by the 2080s active cooling is likely to be required to maintain comfortable indoor conditions in lofts. Practical application: Converted lofts – present in 5.8% of English and 10.8% of London dwellings – are at significantly elevated risk of high indoor temperatures relative to conventional rooms. Passive adaptations such as ventilation and shading can effectively mitigate loft overheating until around 2080, after which active measures become necessary. When capital and ongoing costs are considered, the most cost-effective heat mitigating adaptations are night and advance ventilation and internal curtains/blinds. Heat mitigating adaptations for converted lofts should become mandatory, and such spaces should not be occupied by the vulnerable or elderly during hot weather.
Xiaoyi Li; Jonathon Taylor; Phil Symonds. Indoor overheating and mitigation of converted lofts in London, UK. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology 2019, 40, 409 -425.
AMA StyleXiaoyi Li, Jonathon Taylor, Phil Symonds. Indoor overheating and mitigation of converted lofts in London, UK. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology. 2019; 40 (4):409-425.
Chicago/Turabian StyleXiaoyi Li; Jonathon Taylor; Phil Symonds. 2019. "Indoor overheating and mitigation of converted lofts in London, UK." Building Services Engineering Research and Technology 40, no. 4: 409-425.
Estimates of population air pollution exposure typically rely on the outdoor component only, and rarely account for populations spending the majority of their time indoors. Housing is an important modifier of air pollution exposure due to outdoor pollution infiltrating indoors, and the removal of indoor-sourced pollution through active or passive ventilation. Here, we describe the application of an indoor air pollution modelling tool to a spatially distributed housing stock model for England and Wales, developed from Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) data and containing information for approximately 11.5 million dwellings. First, we estimate indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios and total indoor concentrations of outdoor air pollution for PM2.5 and NO2 for all EPC dwellings in London. The potential to estimate concentration from both indoor and outdoor sources is then demonstrated by modelling indoor background CO levels for England and Wales pre- and post-energy efficient adaptation, including heating, cooking, and smoking as internal sources. In London, we predict a median I/O ratio of 0.60 (99% CIs; 0.53–0.73) for outdoor PM2.5 and 0.41 (99%CIs; 0.34–0.59) for outdoor NO2; Pearson correlation analysis indicates a greater spatial modification of PM2.5 exposure by housing (ρ = 0.81) than NO2 (ρ = 0.88). For the demonstrative CO model, concentrations ranged from 0.4–9.9 ppm (99%CIs)(median = 3.0 ppm) in kitchens and 0.3–25.6 ppm (median = 6.4 ppm) in living rooms. Clusters of elevated indoor concentration are found in urban areas due to higher outdoor concentrations and smaller dwellings with reduced ventilation potential, with an estimated 17.6% increase in the number of living rooms and 63% increase in the number of kitchens exceeding recommended exposure levels following retrofit without additional ventilation. The model has the potential to rapidly calculate indoor pollution exposure across large housing stocks and estimate changes to exposure under different pollution or housing policy scenarios.
Jonathon Taylor; Clive Shrubsole; Phil Symonds; Ian Mackenzie; Mike Davies. Application of an indoor air pollution metamodel to a spatially-distributed housing stock. Science of The Total Environment 2019, 667, 390 -399.
AMA StyleJonathon Taylor, Clive Shrubsole, Phil Symonds, Ian Mackenzie, Mike Davies. Application of an indoor air pollution metamodel to a spatially-distributed housing stock. Science of The Total Environment. 2019; 667 ():390-399.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJonathon Taylor; Clive Shrubsole; Phil Symonds; Ian Mackenzie; Mike Davies. 2019. "Application of an indoor air pollution metamodel to a spatially-distributed housing stock." Science of The Total Environment 667, no. : 390-399.
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and duration of hot weather and its associated adverse health effects. In dense urban areas, these phenomena will be exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect and indoor overheating. This paper assesses population exposure and vulnerability to high summer temperatures by exploring the geospatial connection between the UHI, housing energy efficiency and overheating risk, and social vulnerability indicators, such as income and the elderly population. Focusing on Madrid and London, two European cities with strong UHIs but contrasting drivers of indoor heat risk, the spatial distribution of selected indicators were analysed by means of Geographical Information Systems, and areas with the highest vulnerability towards summer energy poverty were identified. It was found that while ‘hot and vulnerable’ areas are present in both Madrid and London, there are significant differences in climate, socioeconomic distribution and housing between the two cities. In warmer climates such as Madrid, energy poverty - traditionally defined by wintertime heating - requires its definition to be broadened to include summertime cooling needs; in the context of climate change and urban warming trends, this may soon also be the case in northern cities such as London.
Carmen Sanchez-Guevara; Miguel Núñez Peiró; Jonathon Taylor; Anna Mavrogianni; Javier Neila González. Assessing population vulnerability towards summer energy poverty: Case studies of Madrid and London. Energy and Buildings 2019, 190, 132 -143.
AMA StyleCarmen Sanchez-Guevara, Miguel Núñez Peiró, Jonathon Taylor, Anna Mavrogianni, Javier Neila González. Assessing population vulnerability towards summer energy poverty: Case studies of Madrid and London. Energy and Buildings. 2019; 190 ():132-143.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCarmen Sanchez-Guevara; Miguel Núñez Peiró; Jonathon Taylor; Anna Mavrogianni; Javier Neila González. 2019. "Assessing population vulnerability towards summer energy poverty: Case studies of Madrid and London." Energy and Buildings 190, no. : 132-143.
Historical dwellings make up a significant fraction of the French building stock and require substantial retrofitting to reduce their energy consumption and improve their thermal comfort. In the city center of Cahors, France, the old medieval dwellings are considered as valuable cultural heritage and internal insulation is often the only insulation technique that can be used when the architectural value of the exterior façade is to be preserved. However, internal insulation may have an impact upon the hygrothermal performance of the wall, leading to lowered drying capacity, with possible interstitial condensation and mold growth. Hygrothermal models may be used to assess the risk of failure, but the accuracy of the results depends on how reliable the input data is, including external boundary conditions, which may vary significantly in dense medieval cities such as Cahors. In this study, a Geographical Information System model of Cahors is used to develop EnergyPlus models of individual dwellings. The boundary conditions output by these models are, in turn, used to model the hygrothermal performance of façades with different internal insulations, using the hygrothermal tool Delphin. The Delphin outputs are then analyzed with the VTT model, a mold growth assessment model. Results highlight a quantitative correlation between some urban morphology characteristics and the hygrothermal performance of refurbished walls, with some configurations raising the risk of damage patterns. We find that bio-based insulation presents a better hygrothermal performance than mineral wool in most of the configurations.
Sophie Claude; Stephane Ginestet; Marion Bonhomme; Gilles Escadeillas; Jonathon Taylor; Valentina Marincioni; Ivan Korolija; Hector Altamirano. Evaluating retrofit options in a historical city center: Relevance of bio-based insulation and the need to consider complex urban form in decision-making. Energy and Buildings 2018, 182, 196 -204.
AMA StyleSophie Claude, Stephane Ginestet, Marion Bonhomme, Gilles Escadeillas, Jonathon Taylor, Valentina Marincioni, Ivan Korolija, Hector Altamirano. Evaluating retrofit options in a historical city center: Relevance of bio-based insulation and the need to consider complex urban form in decision-making. Energy and Buildings. 2018; 182 ():196-204.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSophie Claude; Stephane Ginestet; Marion Bonhomme; Gilles Escadeillas; Jonathon Taylor; Valentina Marincioni; Ivan Korolija; Hector Altamirano. 2018. "Evaluating retrofit options in a historical city center: Relevance of bio-based insulation and the need to consider complex urban form in decision-making." Energy and Buildings 182, no. : 196-204.
Globally, urban populations are growing rapidly, and in most cases their demands for resources are beyond current limits of sustainability. Cities are therefore critical for achieving national and international sustainability objectives, such as greenhouse gas reduction. Improving sustainability may also provide opportunities for urban population health co-benefits by reducing unhealthy exposures and behaviours. However, there is currently sparse empirical evidence on the degree to which city characteristics are associated with variations in health-related exposures, behaviours and sustainability. This paper examines the feasibility of aggregating empirical data relating to sustainability and health for global cities. An initial scoping review of existing English-language datasets and networks is performed. Resulting datasets are analysed for data types, collection method, and the distribution of contributing cities across climates, population sizes, and wealth. The review indicates datasets are populated using inconsistent methodologies and metrics and have poor overlap of cities between them. Data and organisations tend to be biased towards larger and wealthier cities, and concentrated in Europe and North America. Therefore, despite vast amounts of available data, limitations of reliability, representativeness, and disparate sources mean researchers are faced with significant obstacles when aggregating data to analyse the sustainability and health of globally representative samples of cities.
Jonathon Taylor; Andy Haines; James Milner; Mike Davies; Paul Wilkinson. A Comparative Analysis of Global Datasets and Initiatives for Urban Health and Sustainability. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3636 .
AMA StyleJonathon Taylor, Andy Haines, James Milner, Mike Davies, Paul Wilkinson. A Comparative Analysis of Global Datasets and Initiatives for Urban Health and Sustainability. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (10):3636.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJonathon Taylor; Andy Haines; James Milner; Mike Davies; Paul Wilkinson. 2018. "A Comparative Analysis of Global Datasets and Initiatives for Urban Health and Sustainability." Sustainability 10, no. 10: 3636.
Background England, and the UK more generally, has a large burden of winter- and cold-related mortality/morbidity in comparison with nearby countries in continental Europe. Improving the energy efficiency of the housing stock may help to reduce this, as well as being important for climate change and energy security objectives. Objectives To evaluate the impact of home energy efficiency (HEE) interventions on winter- and cold-related mortality/morbidity, including assessing the impact of winter fuel payments (WFPs) and fuel costs. Design A mixed-methods study – an epidemiological time-series analysis, an analysis of data on HEE interventions, the development and application of modelling methods including a multicriteria decision analysis and an in-depth interview study of householders. Setting England, UK. Participants The population of England. In-depth interviews were conducted with 12 households (2–4 participants each) and 41 individuals in three geographical regions. Interventions HEE interventions. Main outcome measures Mortality, morbidity and intervention-related changes to the home indoor environment. Data sources The Homes Energy Efficiency Database, mortality and hospital admissions data and weather (temperature) data. Results There has been a progressive decline in cold-related deaths since the mid-1970s. Since the introduction of WFPs, the gradient of association between winter cold and mortality [2.00%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.74% to 2.28%] per degree Celsius fall in temperature is somewhat weaker (i.e. that the population is less vulnerable to cold) than in earlier years (2.37%, 95% CI 0.22% to 2.53%). There is also evidence that years with above-average fuel costs were associated with higher vulnerability to outdoor cold. HEE measures installed in England in 2002–10 have had a relatively modest impact in improving the indoor environment. The gains in winter temperatures (around +0.09 °C on a day with maximum outdoor temperature of 5 °C) are associated with an estimated annual reduction of ≈280 cold-related deaths in England (an eventual maximum annual impact of 4000 life-years gained), but these impacts may be appreciably smaller than those of changes in indoor air quality. Modelling studies indicate the potential importance of the medium- and longer-term impacts that HEE measures have on health, which are not observable in short-term studies. They also suggest that HEE improvements of similar annualised cost to current WFPs would achieve greater improvements in health while reducing (rather than increasing) carbon dioxide emissions. In-depth interviews suggest four distinct householder framings of HEE measures (as home improvement, home maintenance, subsidised public goods and contributions to sustainability), which do not dovetail with current ‘consumerist’ national policy and may have implications for the uptake of HEE measures. Limitations The quantification of intervention impacts in this national study is reliant on various indirect/model-based assessments. Conclusions Larger-scale changes are required to the housing stock in England if the full potential benefits for improving health and for reaching increasingly important climate change mitigation targets are to be realised. Future work Studies based on data linkage at individual dwelling level to examine health impacts. There is a need for empirical assessment of HEE interventions on indoor air quality. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 6, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
Ben Armstrong; Oliver Bonnington; Zaid Chalabi; Michael Davies; Yvonne Doyle; James Goodwin; Judith Green; Shakoor Hajat; Ian Hamilton; Emma Hutchinson; Anna Mavrogianni; James Milner; Ai Milojevic; Roberto Picetti; Nirandeep Rehill; Christophe Sarran; Clive Shrubsole; Phil Symonds; Jonathon Taylor; Paul Wilkinson. The impact of home energy efficiency interventions and winter fuel payments on winter- and cold-related mortality and morbidity in England: a natural equipment mixed-methods study. Public Health Research 2018, 6, 1 -110.
AMA StyleBen Armstrong, Oliver Bonnington, Zaid Chalabi, Michael Davies, Yvonne Doyle, James Goodwin, Judith Green, Shakoor Hajat, Ian Hamilton, Emma Hutchinson, Anna Mavrogianni, James Milner, Ai Milojevic, Roberto Picetti, Nirandeep Rehill, Christophe Sarran, Clive Shrubsole, Phil Symonds, Jonathon Taylor, Paul Wilkinson. The impact of home energy efficiency interventions and winter fuel payments on winter- and cold-related mortality and morbidity in England: a natural equipment mixed-methods study. Public Health Research. 2018; 6 (11):1-110.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBen Armstrong; Oliver Bonnington; Zaid Chalabi; Michael Davies; Yvonne Doyle; James Goodwin; Judith Green; Shakoor Hajat; Ian Hamilton; Emma Hutchinson; Anna Mavrogianni; James Milner; Ai Milojevic; Roberto Picetti; Nirandeep Rehill; Christophe Sarran; Clive Shrubsole; Phil Symonds; Jonathon Taylor; Paul Wilkinson. 2018. "The impact of home energy efficiency interventions and winter fuel payments on winter- and cold-related mortality and morbidity in England: a natural equipment mixed-methods study." Public Health Research 6, no. 11: 1-110.