A mega project, Mountain Excavation and City Construction (MECC), was launched in the hilly and gully region of the Chinese Loess Plateau in 2012, in order to address the shortage of available land and create new flat land for urban construction. However, large-scale land creation and urban expansion significantly alters the local geological environment, leading to severe ground deformation. This study investigated the topographic changes, ground deformation, and their interactions due to the MECC project in the Yan’an New District (YND). First, new surface elevations were generated using ZiYuan-3 (ZY-3) stereo images acquired after the construction in order to map the local topographic changes and the fill thickness associated with the MECC project. Then, the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) time series and 32 Sentinel-1A images were used to assess the spatial patterns of the ground deformation in the YND during the postconstruction period (2017–2018). By combining the InSAR-derived results and topographic change features, the relationship between the ground deformation and large-scale land creation was further analyzed. The results indicated that the MECC project in the YND has created over 22 km² of flat land, including 10.8 km² of filled area, with a maximum fill thickness of ~110 m. Significant uneven ground deformation was detected in the land-creation area, with a maximum subsidence rate of approximately 121 mm/year, which was consistent with the field survey. The strong correlation between the observed subsidence patterns and the land creation project suggested that this recorded uneven subsidence was primarily related to the spatial distribution of the filling works, along with the changes in the thickness and geotechnical properties of the filled loess; moreover, rapid urbanization, such as road construction, can accelerate the subsidence process. These findings can guide improvements in urban planning and the mitigation of geohazards in regions experiencing large-scale land construction.

Introduction: Surface deformation in the Three Gorges Reservoir area poses significant threats to infrastructure and safety due to complex geological and hydrological factors. Despite existing studies, systematic exploration of long-term deformation characteristics and their driving mechanisms remains limited. This study combines SBAS-InSAR technology and machine learning to analyze and predict surface deformation in Fengjie County, Chongqing, China, between 2020 and 2022, focusing on riverside urban ground, riverside road slopes, and ancient landslides in the reservoir area.Methods: SBAS-InSAR technology was applied to 36 Sentinel-1A images to monitor surface deformation, complemented by hydrological and meteorological data. Machine learning models—Random Forest (RF), Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated using six metrics, including RMSE, R², and SMAPE, to assess their predictive performance across diverse geological settings.Results: Deformation rates for riverside urban ground, road slopes, and ancient landslides were −3.48 ± 2.91 mm/yr, −5.19 ± 3.62 mm/yr, and −6.02 ± 4.55 mm/yr, respectively, with ancient landslides exhibiting the most pronounced deformation. A negative correlation was observed between reservoir water level decline and subsidence, highlighting the influence of seasonal hydrological adjustments. Urbanization and infrastructure development further exacerbated deformation processes. Among the models, LSTM demonstrated superior predictive accuracy but showed overestimation trends in ancient landslide areas.Discussion: Reservoir water level adjustments emerged as a critical driver of subsidence, with rapid water level declines leading to increased pore pressure and soil compression. Seasonal effects were particularly evident, with higher subsidence rates during and after the rainy season. Human activities, including urbanization and road construction, significantly intensified deformation, disrupting natural geological conditions. Progressive slope failure linked to road expansion underscored the long-term impacts of engineering activities. For ancient landslides, accelerated deformation patterns were linked to prolonged drought and reservoir-induced hydrological changes. While LSTM models showed high accuracy, their limitations in complex geological settings highlight the need for hybrid approaches combining machine learning with physical models. Future research should emphasize developing integrated frameworks for long-term risk assessment and mitigation strategies in reservoir environments.Conclusions: This study provides new insights into the complex surface dynamics in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, emphasizing the interplay of hydrological, geological, and anthropogenic factors. The findings highlight the need for adaptive management strategies and improved predictive models to mitigate subsidence risks.