Investigating the effects of climate and land-use changes on surface runoff is critical for water resources management. The majority of studies focused on projected climate change effects on surface runoff, while neglecting future land-use change. Therefore, the main aim of this article is to discriminate the impacts of projected climate and land-use changes on surface runoff using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) through the lens of the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. Future scenarios of the land-use and climate changes are predicted using cellular automata artificial neural network and four bias-corrected general circulation models, respectively. The historical record (2000–2013) was divided into the calibration period (2000–2008) and the validation period (2009–2013). The simulated results demonstrated that the SWAT model performed well. The results obtained from 2000 to 2013 show that climate change (61.61%) has a higher influence on river runoff than land-use change (38.39%). Both climate and land-use changes are predicted to increase future runoff depth in this basin. The influence of climate change (12.76–25.92%) is greater than land-use change (0.37–1.1%). Global weather data has good applicability for simulating hydrological responses in the region where conventional gauges are unavailable. The study discusses that both climate and land-use changes impact runoff depth and concludes with some suggestions for water resources managers to bring water environment sustainability.

The potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan, a region heavily reliant on these resources for irrigated agriculture. We employ state-of-the-art global climate models from the CMIP6 project under the SSP245 scenario to evaluate changes in river runoff using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Our findings indicate that temperature fluctuations play a crucial role in streamflow dynamics, given that the primary sources of river runoff in the Upper Indus Basin are snow and glacier melting. We project a substantial increase of approximately 18% in both minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation pattern increases of 13–17%, and a significant rise in streamflow by 19–30% in the future, driven by warmer temperatures. Importantly, our analysis reveals season-specific impacts of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow, with increasing variability in projected annual changes as we progress into the mid and late 21st century. To address these changes, our findings suggest the need for integrated strategies and action plans encompassing hydroelectricity generation, irrigation, flood prevention, and reservoir storage to ensure effective water resource management in the region.

This study critically assesses the combined effects of climate and land-use change on flood recurrence in the Kokcha River, Afghanistan, spanning the period from 2010 to 2021 and projecting forward to 2088–2099. Through the application of a bias-corrected model, we achieved high accuracy in temperature and precipitation simulations, with notable NSE values of 0.9 and 0.69, and R2 values of 0.92 and 0.78, respectively. Future streamflow simulations under different scenarios highlight climate change as the major driver influencing flood recurrence in the Kokcha River, contributing to 101.1% of the total variation, while land-use change has a minimal contribution of −1.1%. Our analysis of precipitation, average temperature, and streamflow data reveals significant patterns and changes, with future projections indicating a gradual decline in precipitation levels, mean temperature, and streamflow. Flood frequency analysis for return periods of 10, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, considering different scenarios, underscores the likelihood of floods of varying magnitudes. Notably, the highest streamflow spikes under both scenarios highlight the impact of futuristic air temperature and precipitation on flood recurrence. The study advocates prioritizing climate change adaptation and resilient land-use strategies to ensure sustainable water resource management, emphasizing the mitigation of potential flood risks.

Investigating the influence of land use change on climate elasticity of water quality (CEWQ) at multiple spatial scales is very critical for sustainable water management policies. The current research work investigated land use change–water–climate nexus through the lens of 32 water quality monitoring sites located at major rivers of Pakistan. The novelty of the current research work is the assessment of the instability consequences of precipitation and temperature CEWQ indicators owing to land use dynamics (2001–2019) at both sub-watershed and buffer scales. Precipitation elasticity values are lower and spatially homogeneous in comparison with temperature elasticity. Majority CEWQ-land use correlation coefficients have not shown any temporal trend with land use change except a few CEWQ indicators, namely pH, CO3, F, Ca, SiO2, silt, and clay. Temperature CEWQ developed many linear models with land use in comparison with precipitation CEWQ. A small number of land use classes cause instability consequences at the buffer scale in comparison with the sub-watershed scale. Savanna, shrublands, and ice and snow decline instability consequences of CEWQ indicators at both spatial scales. The identified land use classes that bring stability in CEWQ indicators are recommended to be incorporated in watershed management policies to bring sustainability in the aquatic environment.

Pakistan is primarily dependent on water supplies from the Upper Indus basin for irrigated agriculture. Any changes in available resources due to climate, consequently has the potential to have a significant impact on the environment. Coupled model inter-comparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) based global climate models (GCMs) under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245) scenario were assessed to evaluate the study area for climate change effect on river runoff using Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Temperature fluctuations have a significant effect on stream flow, since the primary sources of river runoff in the Upper Regions of Indus Basin (URIB) are snow and glacier melting. The temperature (min & max) will likely increase by almost 18% in the future, the projected precipitation pattern will increase by 13-17 %, and the stream flow will increase by 19-30 % in the future due to the warmer temperature. Temperature (min & max), precipitation and stream flow have had different effects in each season, while their variability in the projected annual changes are increasing for mid and late 21 ^st century. Hydroelectricity generation, irrigation, flood prevention, and storage reservoir will be required in the strategies and action plans for the effective water resources management.