Construction and demolition waste (DW) generation information has been recognized as a tool for providing useful information for waste management. Recently, numerous researchers have actively utilized artificial intelligence technology to establish accurate waste generation information. This study investigated the development of machine learning predictive models that can achieve predictive performance on small datasets composed of categorical variables. To this end, the random forest (RF) and gradient boosting machine (GBM) algorithms were adopted. To develop the models, 690 building datasets were established using data preprocessing and standardization. Hyperparameter tuning was performed to develop the RF and GBM models. The model performances were evaluated using the leave-one-out cross-validation technique. The study demonstrated that, for small datasets comprising mainly categorical variables, the bagging technique (RF) predictions were more stable and accurate than those of the boosting technique (GBM). However, GBM models demonstrated excellent predictive performance in some DW predictive models. Furthermore, the RF and GBM predictive models demonstrated significantly differing performance across different types of DW. Certain RF and GBM models demonstrated relatively low predictive performance. However, the remaining predictive models all demonstrated excellent predictive performance at R² values > 0.6, and R values > 0.8. Such differences are mainly because of the characteristics of features applied to model development; we expect the application of additional features to improve the performance of the predictive models. The 11 DW predictive models developed in this study will be useful for establishing detailed DW management strategies.

Most existing studies on demolition waste (DW) quantification do not have an official standard to estimate the amount and type of DW. Therefore, there are limitations in the existing literature for estimating DW with a consistent classification system. Building information modeling (BIM) is a technology that can generate and manage all the information required during the life cycle of a building, from design to demolition. Nevertheless, there has been a lack of research regarding its application to the demolition stage of a building. For an effective waste management plan, the estimation of the type and volume of DW should begin from the building design stage. However, the lack of tools hinders an early estimation. This study proposes a BIM-based framework that estimates DW in the early design stages, to achieve an effective and streamlined planning, processing, and management. Specifically, the input of construction materials in the Korean construction classification system and those in the BIM library were matched. Based on this matching integration, the estimates of DW by type were calculated by applying the weight/unit volume factors and the rates of DW volume change. To verify the framework, its operation was demonstrated by means of an actual BIM modeling and by comparing its results with those available in the literature. This study is expected to contribute not only to the estimation of DW at the building level, but also to the automated estimation of DW at the district level.

Recently, artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have been employed to predict construction and demolition (C&D) waste generation. However, most studies have used machine learning models with continuous data input variables, applying algorithms, such as artificial neural networks, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems, support vector machines, linear regression analysis, decision trees, and genetic algorithms. Therefore, machine learning algorithms may not perform as well when applied to categorical data. This article uses machine learning algorithms to predict C&D waste generation from a dataset, as a way to improve the accuracy of waste management in C&D facilities. These datasets include categorical (e.g., region, building structure, building use, wall material, and roofing material), and continuous data (particularly, gloss floor area), and a random forest (RF) algorithm was used. Results indicate that RF is an adequate machine learning algorithm for a small dataset consisting of categorical data, and even with a small dataset, an adequate prediction model can be developed. Despite the small dataset, the predictive performance according to the demolition waste (DW) type was R (Pearson’s correlation coefficient) = 0.691–0.871, R² (coefficient of determination) = 0.554–0.800, showing stable prediction performance. High prediction performance was observed using three (for mortar), five (for other DW types), or six (for concrete) input variables. This study is significant because the proposed RF model can predict DW generation using a small amount of data. Additionally, it demonstrates the possibility of applying AI to multi-purpose DW management.