Precipitation extreme changes are often assumed to scale with, or are constrained by, the change in atmospheric moisture content. Studies have generally confirmed the scaling based on moisture content for the midlatitudes but identified deviations for the tropics. In fact half of the twelve selected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models exhibit increases faster than the climatological-mean precipitable water change for high percentiles of tropical daily precipitation, albeit with significant intermodel scatter. Decomposition of the precipitation extreme changes reveals that the variations among models can be attributed primarily to the differences in the upward velocity. Both the amplitude and vertical profile of vertical motion are found to affect precipitation extremes. A recently proposed scaling that incorporates these dynamical effects can capture the basic features of precipitation changes in both the tropics and midlatitudes. In particular, the increases in tropical precipitation extremes significantly exceed the precipitable water change in Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), a coupled general circulation model with the highest resolution among IPCC climate models whose precipitation characteristics have been shown to reasonably match those of observations. The expected intensification of tropical disturbances points to the possibility of precipitation extreme increases beyond the moisture content increase as is found in MIROC and some of IPCC models.

Making informed future decisions about solar radiation modification (SRM; also known as solar geoengineering)—approaches such as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that would cool the climate by reflecting sunlight—requires projections of the climate response and associated human and ecosystem impacts. These projections, in turn, will rely on simulations with global climate models. As with climate-change projections, these simulations need to adequately span a range of possible futures, describing different choices, such as start date and temperature target, as well as risks, such as termination or interruptions. SRM modeling simulations to date typically consider only a single scenario, often with some unrealistic or arbitrarily chosen elements (such as starting deployment in 2020), and have often been chosen based on scientific rather than policy-relevant considerations (e.g., choosing quite substantial cooling specifically to achieve a bigger response). This limits the ability to compare risks both between SRM and non-SRM scenarios and between different SRM scenarios. To address this gap, we begin by outlining some general considerations on scenario design for SRM. We then describe a specific set of scenarios to capture a range of possible policy choices and uncertainties and present corresponding SAI simulations intended for broad community use.

A new cumulus parameterization is developed for which an entraining plume model is adopted. The lateral entrainment rate varies vertically depending on the surrounding environment. Two different formulations are examined for the rate. The cumulus ensemble is spectrally represented according to the updraft velocity at cloud base. Cloud-base mass flux is determined with prognostic convective kinetic energy closure. The entrainment rate tends to be large near cloud base because of the small updraft velocity near that level. Deep convection tends to be suppressed when convective available potential energy is small because of upward reduction of in-cloud moist static energy. Dry environmental air significantly reduces in-cloud humidity mainly because of the large entrainment rate in the lower troposphere, which leads to suppression of deep convection, consistent with observations and previous results of cloud-resolving models. The change in entrainment rate has the potential to influence cumulus convection through many feedbacks. The results of an atmospheric general circulation model are improved in both climatology and variability. A representation of the South Pacific convergence zone and the double intertropical convergence zone is improved. The moist Kelvin waves are represented without empirical triggering schemes with a reasonable equivalent depth. A spectral analysis shows a strong signal of the Madden–Julian oscillation. The scheme provides new insights and better understanding of the interaction between cumuli and the surrounding environment.

Given their historic emissions and economic capability, we analyze a leadership role for representative industrialized regions (EU, US, Japan, and Australia) in the global climate mitigation effort. Using the global integrated assessment model REMIND, we systematically compare region-specific mitigation strategies and challenges of reaching domestic net-zero carbon emissions in 2050. Embarking from different emission profiles and trends, we find that all of the regions have technological options and mitigation strategies to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. Regional characteristics are mostly related to different land availability, population density and population trends: While Japan is resource limited with respect to onshore wind and solar power and has constrained options for carbon dioxide removal (CDR), their declining population significantly decreases future energy demand. In contrast, Australia and the US benefit from abundant renewable resources, but face challenges to curb industry and transport emissions given increasing populations and high per-capita energy use. In the EU, lack of social acceptance or EU-wide cooperation might endanger the ongoing transition to a renewable-based power system. CDR technologies are necessary for all regions, as residual emissions cannot be fully avoided by 2050. For Australia and the US, in particular, CDR could reduce the required transition pace, depth and costs. At the same time, this creates the risk of a carbon lock-in, if decarbonization ambition is scaled down in anticipation of CDR technologies that fail to deliver. Our results suggest that industrialized economies can benefit from cooperation based on common themes and complementary strengths. This may include trade of electricity-based fuels and materials as well as the exchange of regional experience on technology scale-up and policy implementation.

The moisture mode in a simplified version of the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM) of Neelin and Zeng is analyzed. Perturbation expansion based on the ratio of temperature tendency to adiabatic cooling simplifies the system and dispersion relationship. The weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation of Sobel, Nilsson, and Polvani naturally emerges as the dynamical balance of the moisture mode. The condition of the expansion can be phrased in terms of the nondimensional wavenumber and is satisfied in the tropics even for the planetary scale. The WTG growth rate equation demonstrates that the moisture mode is unstable when moist static energy sources such as cloud radiative forcing and gustiness-enhanced evaporation exceed its export. Wind-induced surface heat exchange does not affect the growth rate at the leading order, although it propagates the mode eastward in the mean easterly wind. For typical values of parameters, the time scale of moisture mode instability is several days. Nonlinear WTG calculations show that the moisture mode nonlinearly saturates by a thermodynamic limiting process. In the standard parameter regime, a phase diagram reveals two stable fixed points in addition to the unstable solution of radiative–convective equilibrium.