In this research, univariate and bivariate statistical methods were applied to rainfall, river and piezometric level datasets belonging to 24-year time series (1986–2009). These methods, which often are used to understand the effects of precipitation on rivers and karstic springs discharge, have been used to assess piezometric level response to rainfall and river level fluctuations in a porous aquifer. A rain gauge, a river level gauge and three wells, located in Central Italy along the lower Pescara River valley in correspondence of its important alluvial aquifer, provided the data. Statistical analysis has been used within a known hydrogeological framework, which has been refined by mean of a photo-interpretation and a GPS survey. Water–groundwater relationships were identified following the autocorrelation and cross-correlation analyses. Spectral analysis and mono-fractal features of time series were assessed to provide information on multi-year variability, data distributions, their fractal dimension and the distribution return time within the historical time series. The statistical–mathematical results were interpreted through fieldwork that identified distinct groundwater flowpaths within the aquifer and enabled the implementation of a conceptual model, improving the knowledge on water resources management tools.

The current climate change could lead to an intensification of extreme weather events, such as sudden floods and fast flowing debris flows. Accordingly, the availability of an early-warning device system, based on hydrological data and on both accurate and very fast running mathematical-numerical models, would be not only desirable, but also necessary in areas of particular hazard. To this purpose, the 2D Riemann–Godunov shallow-water approach, solved in parallel on a Graphical-Processing-Unit (GPU) (able to drastically reduce calculation time) and implemented with the RiverFlow2D code (version 2017), was selected as a possible tool to be applied within the Alpine contexts. Moreover, it was also necessary to identify a prototype of an actual rainfall monitoring network and an actual debris-flow event, beside the acquisition of an accurate numerical description of the topography. The Marderello’s basin (Alps, Turin, Italy), described by a 5 × 5 m Digital Terrain Model (DTM), equipped with five rain-gauges and one hydrometer and the muddy debris flow event that was monitored on 22 July 2016, were identified as a typical test case, well representative of mountain contexts and the phenomena under study. Several parametric analyses, also including selected infiltration modelling, were carried out in order to individuate the best numerical values fitting the measured data. Different rheological options, such as Coulomb-Turbulent-Yield and others, were tested. Moreover, some useful general suggestions, regarding the improvement of the adopted mathematical modelling, were acquired. The rapidity of the computational time due to the application of the GPU and the comparison between experimental data and numerical results, regarding both the arrival time and the height of the debris wave, clearly show that the selected approaches and methodology can be considered suitable and accurate tools to be included in an early-warning system, based at least on simple acoustic and/or light alarms that can allow rapid evacuation, for fast flowing debris flows.

Debris flows are a dynamic and hazardous geological phenomenon, as by definition, debris flows are rapid, gravity-driven flows of saturated materials that often contain a mixture of water, rock, soil, and organic matter. They are highly destructive and occur in steep channels, posing a significant threat to infrastructure and human life. The dynamics of debris flows are complex due to their non-Newtonian behaviour and varying sediment–water interactions, making accurate modelling essential for risk mitigation and emergency planning. This paper reports and discusses the results of numerical simulations of back analyses aimed at studying the reconstruction of a real rapid debris flow. The selected test case is the event that occurred on 12 and 16 March 2021 along the Rio Sonno channel, a tributary of the Liri River, following the landslide event of Rendinara (Municipality of Morino, Abruzzo Region, Italy). There are significant flow sources in the area, fed by a highly fractured carbonaceous aquifer that extends immediately upslope of the detachment zone. The continuous flow influences the saturation level in the fine-grained sediments and favours the triggering of the debris flow. This phenomenon was simulated using the commercial RAMMS code, and the rheological model selected was “Voellmy fluid friction”. The modelling approaches used in this research are valid tools to estimate the volumes of materials involved in the flow-feeding process and for the purpose of possible mitigation works (debris flow-type dams, weirs, flow diversion, etc.).

The analysis and prevention of hydrogeological risks plays a very important role and, currently, much attention is paid to advanced numerical models that correspond more to physical reality and whose aim is to reproduce complex environmental phenomena even for long times and on large spatial scales. Within this context, the feasibility of performing an effective balance of surface water flow relating to several months was explored, based on accurate hydraulic and mathematical-numerical models applied to a system at the scale of a hydrographic basin. To pursue this target, a 2D Riemann–Godunov shallow-water approach, solved in parallel on a graphical processing unit (GPU), able to drastically reduce calculation time, and implemented into the RiverFlow2D code (2017 version), was selected. Infiltration and evapotranspiration were included but in a simplified way, in order to face the calibration and validation simulations and because, despite the parallel approach, it is very demanding even for the computer time requirement. As a test case the Pescara river basin, located in Abruzzo, Central Italy, covering an area of 813 km² and well representative of a typical medium-sized basin, was selected. The topography was described by a 10 × 10 m digital terrain model (DTM), covered by about 1,700,000 triangular elements, equipped with 11 rain gauges, distributed over the entire area, with some hydrometers and some fluviometric stations. Calibration, and validation were performed considering the flow data measured at a station located in close proximity to the mouth of the river. The comparison between the numerical and measured data, and also from a statistical point of view, was quite satisfactory. A further important outcome was the capability to highlight any differences between the numerical flow-rate balance carried out on the basis of the contributions of all known sources and the values actually measured. This characteristic of the applied modeling allows better calibration and verification not only of the effectiveness of much more simplified approaches, but also the entire network of measurement stations and could suggest the need for a more in-depth exploration of the territory in question. It would also enable the eventual identification of further hidden supplies of water inventory from underground sources and, accordingly, to enlarge the hydrographic and hydrogeological border of the basin under study. Moreover, the parallel computing platform would also allow the development of effective early warning systems, for example, of floods.