Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.

During 2013–2015, an outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus (DMV) occurred in the western North Atlantic, which resulted in the stranding of over 1,600 common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). There are currently five coastal and 10 bay, sound, and estuary dolphin stocks along the U.S. Atlantic coast, yet there is very limited understanding of which stocks were exposed to DMV during the recent outbreak, or how DMV was transmitted across stocks. In order to address these questions, information is needed on spatial overlap and stock interactions. The goals of this project were to determine ranging patterns, prevalence of DMV, and spatial overlap of the South Carolina‐Georgia (SC‐GA) Coastal Stock, and adjacent Southern Georgia Estuarine System (SGES) Stock. During September 2015, a health assessment and telemetry study was conducted in which 19 dolphins were captured, tested for antibodies to DMV, and satellite tagged. Dolphins were classified into one of three ranging patterns (Coastal, Sound, or Estuary) based upon telemetry data. Coastal dolphins (likely members of the SC‐GA Coastal Stock) had a significantly higher prevalence of positive DMV antibody titers (0.67; N = 2/3), than Sound and Estuary dolphins (likely members of the SGES Stock) (0.13; N = 2/16). These results suggest that the SC‐GA Coastal Stock may have experienced greater exposure to DMV as compared to the SGES Stock. However, due to the small size of the SGES Stock and its exposure to high levels of persistent contaminants, this stock may be particularly vulnerable to DMV infection in the future.

Ecosystems are experiencing elevated levels of disturbance, and species with narrower niches are often more vulnerable to disturbances. Niche breadth is often measured in terms of either diet or habitat use but diet and spatial use are infrequently considered in tandem. These different aspects of niche breadth potentially expose species to different types of disturbances; species with narrow dietary niches may be more affected by disturbances that alter trophic relationships, while species with narrow habitat niches may be more vulnerable to habitat loss and point‐source pollutants. We examined dietary and habitat niche breadth of common bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus truncatus, from three different nearshore sites in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Using stable isotopes, we determined proportional contributions of different prey groups to dolphin diets at each site and through time at one site. We used satellite‐linked telemetry at two sites to determine habitat use and site fidelity. Additionally, we examined the literature on cetacean diet, habitat use, movement, and IUCN status to determine relationships between niche breadth and population status for different species. Dolphin diets varied among sites as available prey varied, but Perciformes fish were the most frequently consumed prey. At the site for which we had temporal data, dolphins consumed more cephalopods in 2015 and 2018 but otherwise consumed primarily Perciformes fish. Dolphins had small utilization distributions and exhibited high site fidelity. Data from 31 cetacean species revealed that most species with vulnerable, threatened, or endangered IUCN statuses not only have specialized diets but also exhibit high site fidelity. Dolphins had diet characteristic of flexible generalists but were habitat specialists with high site fidelity. Dolphin populations in the GoM may have altered their diets in response to environmental changes that have altered community composition and trophic dynamics. On the other hand, their high site fidelity has exposed them to point‐source pollutants, such as oil spills, persistent organic pollutants, and freshwater. Our broader analysis of cetaceans confirmed that species with specialized diets and high site fidelity were the most vulnerable to disturbances, providing a framework to predict which nearshore dolphin populations, and cetaceans in general, are most vulnerable to environmental changes.

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long‐term health of long‐lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement : Oil spills can have long‐term consequences for the health of long‐lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.