Background: Before integrating new machine learning (ML) into clinical practice, algorithms must undergo validation. Validation studies require sample size estimates. Unlike hypothesis testing studies seeking a p-value, the goal of validating predictive models is obtaining estimates of model performance. There is no standard tool for determining sample size estimates for clinical validation studies for machine learning models. Methods: Our open-source method, Sample Size Analysis for Machine Learning (SSAML) was described and was tested in three previously published models: brain age to predict mortality (Cox Proportional Hazard), COVID hospitalization risk prediction (ordinal regression), and seizure risk forecasting (deep learning). Results: Minimum sample sizes were obtained in each dataset using standardized criteria. Discussion: SSAML provides a formal expectation of precision and accuracy at a desired confidence level. SSAML is open-source and agnostic to data type and ML model. It can be used for clinical validation studies of ML models.

In recent years, it has become increasingly apparent that characterizing individual brain structure, connectivity and dynamics is essential for understanding brain function in health and disease. However, the majority of neuroimaging and brain stimulation research has characterized human brain function by averaging measurements from groups of subjects and providing population-level inferences. External perturbations applied directly to well-defined brain regions can reveal distinctive information about the state, connectivity and dynamics of the human brain at the individual level. In a series of studies, we aimed to characterize individual brain responses to MRI-guided transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), and explore the reproducibility of the evoked effects, differences between brain regions, and their individual specificity. In the first study, we administered single pulses of TMS to both anatomically (left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex- 'L-DLPFC', left Intra-parietal lobule- 'L-IPL) and functionally (left motor cortex- 'L-M1', right default mode network- 'R-DMN, right dorsal attention network- 'R-DAN') defined cortical nodes in the frontal, motor, and parietal regions across two identical sessions spaced one month apart in 24 healthy volunteers. In the second study, we extended our analyses to two independent data sets (n = 10 in both data sets) having different sham-TMS protocols. In the first study, we found that perturbation-induced cortical propagation patterns are heterogeneous across individuals but highly reproducible within individuals, specific to the stimulated region, and distinct from spontaneous activity. Most importantly, we demonstrate that by assessing the spatiotemporal characteristics of TMS-induced brain responses originating from different cortical regions, individual subjects can be identified with perfect accuracy. In the second study, we demonstrated that subject specificity of TEPs is generalizable across independent data sets and distinct from non-transcranial neural responses evoked by sham-TMS protocols. Perturbation-induced brain responses reveal unique "brain fingerprints" that reflect causal connectivity dynamics of the stimulated brain regions, and may serve as reliable biomarkers of individual brain function.

Objective: Automatic detection and analysis of respiratory events in sleep using a single respiratoryeffort belt and deep learning. Methods: Using 9,656 polysomnography recordings from the Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH), we trained a neural network (WaveNet) to detect obstructive apnea, central apnea, hypopnea and respiratory-effort related arousals. Performance evaluation included event-based analysis and apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) stratification. The model was further evaluated on a public dataset, the Sleep-Heart-Health-Study-1, containing 8,455 polysomnographic recordings. Results: For binary apnea event detection in the MGH dataset, the neural network obtained a sensitivity of 68%, a specificity of 98%, a precision of 65%, a F1-score of 67%, and an area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristics curve and precision-recall curve of 0.93 and 0.71, respectively. AHI prediction resulted in a mean difference of 0.41 $\pm$ 7.8 and a r ² of 0.90. For the multiclass task, we obtained varying performances: 84% of all labeled central apneas were correctly classified, whereas this metric was 51% for obstructive apneas, 40% for respiratory effort related arousals and 23% for hypopneas. Conclusion: Our fully automated method can detect respiratory events and assess the AHI accurately. Differentiation of event types is more difficult and may reflect in part the complexity of human respiratory output and some degree of arbitrariness in the criteria used during manual annotation. Significance: The current gold standard of diagnosing sleep-disordered breathing, using polysomnography and manual analysis, is time-consuming, expensive, and only applicable in dedicated clinical environments. Automated analysis using a single effort belt signal overcomes these limitations.

Background: We sought to develop an automatable score to predict hospitalization, critical illness, or death for patients at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presenting for urgent care. Methods: We developed the COVID-19 Acuity Score (CoVA) based on a single-center study of adult outpatients seen in respiratory illness clinics or the emergency department. Data were extracted from the Partners Enterprise Data Warehouse, and split into development (n = 9381, 7 March–2 May) and prospective (n = 2205, 3–14 May) cohorts. Outcomes were hospitalization, critical illness (intensive care unit or ventilation), or death within 7 days. Calibration was assessed using the expected-to-observed event ratio (E/O). Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Results: In the prospective cohort, 26.1%, 6.3%, and 0.5% of patients experienced hospitalization, critical illness, or death, respectively. CoVA showed excellent performance in prospective validation for hospitalization (expected-to-observed ratio [E/O]: 1.01; AUC: 0.76), for critical illness (E/O: 1.03; AUC: 0.79), and for death (E/O: 1.63; AUC: 0.93). Among 30 predictors, the top 5 were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, and respiratory rate. Conclusions: CoVA is a prospectively validated automatable score for the outpatient setting to predict adverse events related to COVID-19 infection.

Study Objectives: Dementia is a growing cause of disability and loss of independence in the elderly, yet remains largely underdiagnosed. Early detection and classification of dementia can help close this diagnostic gap and improve management of disease progression. Altered oscillations in brain activity during sleep are an early feature of neurodegenerative diseases and be used to identify those on the verge of cognitive decline. Methods: Our observational cross-sectional study used a clinical dataset of 10 784 polysomnography from 8044 participants. Sleep macro- and micro-structural features were extracted from the electroencephalogram (EEG). Microstructural features were engineered from spectral band powers, EEG coherence, spindle, and slow oscillations. Participants were classified as dementia (DEM), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or cognitively normal (CN) based on clinical diagnosis, Montreal Cognitive Assessment, Mini-Mental State Exam scores, clinical dementia rating, and prescribed medications. We trained logistic regression, support vector machine, and random forest models to classify patients into DEM, MCI, and CN groups. Results: For discriminating DEM versus CN, the best model achieved an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.78 and area under precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.22. For discriminating MCI versus CN, the best model achieved an AUROC of 0.73 and AUPRC of 0.18. For discriminating DEM or MCI versus CN, the best model achieved an AUROC of 0.76 and AUPRC of 0.32. Conclusions: Our dementia classification algorithms show promise for incorporating dementia screening techniques using routine sleep EEG. The findings strengthen the concept of sleep as a window into neurodegenerative diseases.