Fany Nan

Dr. Fany Nan

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

14Years (2013-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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1 January 2013 in Energy Economics
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
SBSilvano Bordignon
Silvano Bordignon
DBDerek W. Bunn
Derek W. Bunn
FLFrancesco Lisi
Francesco Lisi
FNFany Nan
Fany Nan

1 April 2019 in Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
Luigi GrossiLuigi Grossi
Luigi Grossi
FNFany Nan
Fany Nan

1 July 2014 in Energy Economics
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
FLFrancesco Lisi
Francesco Lisi
FNFany Nan
Fany Nan

1 March 2014 in International Journal of Energy and Statistics
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
FNFany Nan
Fany Nan
SBSilvano Bordignon
Silvano Bordignon
DBDerek W. Bunn
Derek W. Bunn
FLFrancesco Lisi
Francesco Lisi

1 January 2015
Verified
Book Chapter
Closed access
PDF file
Luigi GrossiLuigi Grossi
Luigi Grossi
FNFany Nan
Fany Nan

1 May 2014
Verified
Conference Paper
Closed access
Luigi GrossiLuigi Grossi
Luigi Grossi
FNFany Nan
Fany Nan
In this paper we suggest the use of robust GM-SETAR (Self Exciting Threshold AutoRegressive) processes to model and forecast electricity prices observed on deregulated markets. The robustness of the model is achieved by extending to time series the generalized M-type (GM) estimator first introduced for independent multivariate data. As it has been shown in a very recent paper [1], the polynomial weighting function over-performs the classical ordinary least squares method when extreme observations are present. The main advantage of estimating robust SETAR models is the possibility to capture two very well-known stylized facts of electricity prices: nonlinearity produced by changes of regimes and the presence of sudden spikes due to inelasticity of demand. The forecasting performance of the model applied to the Italian electricity market (IPEX) is improved by the introduction of predicted demand as an exogenous regressor. The availability of this regressor is a particular feature of the Italian market. By means of prediction performance indexes and tests, it will be shown that this regressor plays a crucial role and that robust methods improve the overall forecasting performance of the model.