In response to a series of problems brought about by rapid economic development, such as global warming and the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment, China has taken the initiative to shoulder the responsibility of a major country and continued to contribute Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions to the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” at an early date. In this paper, Henan Province has been selected as the study area, and the changes in land use and carbon storage in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020 have been analyzed spatially and temporally. The PLUS model is used to predict future land use changes under different scenarios, and the InVEST model is used to estimate carbon storage under the corresponding scenarios. The results showed that (1) During 2000–2020, the farmland in Henan Province has been in a decreasing trend, grassland and construction land showed a decreasing trend and then an increasing trend, and woodland showed a decreasing trend. From 2000 to 2020, Henan’s overall carbon storage showed a downward trend each year, with storage mainly in the western and southern regions of the province, with a spatial distribution of high storage in the west and low storage in the east. (2) Under the normal development scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5) from 2030 to 2050, the area of farmland and woodland basically showed a continuous downward trend, while construction land showed an upward trend annually, and farmland and construction land showed an increasing trend under the normal development scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5) and economic priority scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5). The decreasing trend of carbon storage was the smallest under the normal development scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5) and the ecological protection scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6). The results provide a basis for decision-making regarding low-carbon and circular developments and rational and optimal land use in Henan.

As the typical megacity in the Central Plains, the simulation and prediction of Zhengzhou’s future land use and ecosystem carbon storage are of great significance for regional green and coordinated development. Based on land use data and CMIP6 data, the study simulated land use types from 2030 to 2050 through plus model. Then the InVEST model is used to estimate its ecosystem carbon storage. The results show that: (1) Arable land is the main type of land use in Zhengzhou from 2000 to 2020. During the period, the conversion between land use type is mainly manifested as the conversion of arable land into construction land. The distribution of the built-up area has changed from one center with multiple scattered dots to one center with a radial spider-web-like pattern. (2) In 2050, arable land in the SSP126 scenario is the only one of the three scenarios to decline, but the area of forest land and so on in this scenario is the largest of the three. The area changes trend of each land use type in the two scenarios of SSP245 and SSP585 are relatively consistent. (3) The areas with high ecosystem carbon storage value are mainly distributed in the forest area in the west of the study area. The regional ecosystem carbon storage value of SSP126 scenario in 2050 is the highest, which is 5.7762 × 10⁷t. The ecosystem carbon storage value of SSP585 scenario decreased the most, with a total reduction of 0.6667 × 10⁷t. (4) The spatiotemporal variation of ecosystem carbon storage in Zhengzhou is the result of natural and social factors, among which the average annual temperature is the strongest explanation. This study provides a theoretical basis for the scientific formulation of land use planning in Zhengzhou, as well as the coordinated development of man and nature.

By simulating the layout of the “Production–Living–Ecological space” under various scenarios in the future and exploring the trend of future land use changes, it is of great significance to optimize the land use structure and ecological environment of the region. Based on the existing land use data and combined with the PLUS model, the article predicts the land demand and distribution of the PLES in the future 2040 and 2060 and then studies the contribution rate of the area changes of each land type to the change of regional ecological environment quality. The results show that (1) agricultural production land is the main type of land use in Anyang City from 1980 to 2020, and the conversion type of land use is mainly manifested as the conversion of agricultural production land to living land. (2) In all three scenarios, the main changes between 2020 and 2060 are the contraction of production land and the expansion of living land. The change rate of the ecological protection scenario is the smallest, and the decrease rate of the urban development scenario is the largest. (3) In 2060, all three scenarios show varying degrees of reduction in the Ecological environment quality index (EQI) compared to 2020. At the same time, the change in regional environmental quality is closely related to the change in agricultural land. (4) The regional ecological environment quality is the result of multi-factors, among which annual precipitation has the strongest explanatory power, and all factors show synergistic effects. The present study is intended to provide a reference for optimizing the pattern of the PLES in the region and improving the regional environmental quality.