Global warming significantly affects forest ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere’s mid-to-high latitudes, altering tree growth, productivity, and spatial distribution. Additionally, spatial and temporal heterogeneity exists in the responses of different tree species to climate change. This research focuses on two key species in China’s Greater Khingan Range: Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen. (Pinaceae) and Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb. (Fagaceae). We utilized a Maxent model optimized by the kuenm R package to predict the species’ potential habitats under various future climate scenarios (2050s and 2070s) considering three distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. We analyzed 313 distribution records and 15 environmental variables and employed geospatial analysis to assess habitat requirements and migration strategies. The Maxent model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 0.921 for Quercus mongolica and 0.985 for Larix gmelinii. The high accuracy was achieved by adjusting the regularization multipliers and feature combinations. Key factors influencing the habitat of Larix gmelinii included the mean temperature of the coldest season (BIO11), mean temperature of the warmest season (BIO10), and precipitation of the driest quarter (BIO17). Conversely, Quercus mongolica’s habitat suitability was largely affected by annual mean temperature (BIO1), elevation, and annual precipitation (BIO12). These results indicate divergent adaptive responses to climate change. Quercus mongolica’s habitable area generally increased in all scenarios, especially under SSP5-8.5, whereas Larix gmelinii experienced more complex habitat changes. Both species’ distribution centroids are expected to shift northwestward. Our study provides insights into the divergent responses of coniferous and broadleaf species in the Greater Khingan Range to climate change, contributing scientific information vital to conserving and managing the area’s forest ecosystems.

Wildfires, a recurring and persistent natural disaster, present direct threats to both ecological balance and human safety. Despite the northeastern region of China boasting abundant forest resources, it grapples with a significant wildfire issue. This study, focused on China’s northeastern region, employs sophisticated methodologies, including the Mann–Kendall (MK) mutation test, sliding t-test, and geographical heat maps, to unveil the spatial distribution and temporal trends of wildfires. Furthermore, a random forest model is utilized to develop a wildfire susceptibility map, enabling an in-depth analysis of the relationships between various potential factors and wildfires, along with an assessment of the significance of these driving factors. The research findings indicate that wildfires in the northeastern region exhibit distinct seasonality, with the highest occurrences in the autumn and spring and fewer incidents in the summer and winter. Apart from the spring season, historical wildfires show a decreasing trend during other seasons. Geographically, wildfires tend to cluster, with over half of the high-risk areas concentrated at the junction of the Greater Khingan Mountains and Lesser Khingan Mountains in the northeastern region. The random forest model assumes a pivotal role in the analysis, accurately identifying both natural and human-induced factors, including topography, climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic elements. This research further discloses that climate factors predominantly influence wildfires in the northeastern region, with sunshine duration being the most influential factor. In summary, this study highlights the variation in various wildfire-driving factors, providing the basis for tailored management strategies and region-specific fire prevention. Through a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfires and associated risk factors, this research offers valuable insights for mitigating wildfire risks and preserving the region’s ecological integrity.