The evaporation duct is an abnormal refractive phenomenon with wide distribution and frequency occurrence at the boundary between the atmosphere and the ocean, which directly affects electromagnetic wave propagation. In recent years, the use of meteorological and hydrological data to predict the evaporation duct height has become an emerging and promising approach. There are some evaporation duct models that have been proposed based on the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. However, each model adopts different stability functions and roughness length parameterization methods, so the prediction accuracies are different under different environmental conditions. To improve the prediction accuracy of the evaporation duct under different environmental conditions, a model selection optimization method (MSOM) of the evaporation duct model is proposed based on sensitivity analysis. According to the sensitivity of each model to input parameters analyzed by the sensor observation accuracy, curve graph, and Sobol sensitivity, the model input parameters are divided into several intervals. Then the optimization model is selected in different intervals. The model was established using numerical simulation data from local areas in the South China Sea, and its accuracy was verified by the observational data from the offshore observation platform located in the South China Sea. The results show that the MSOM can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the evaporation duct height. Under unstable conditions, the maximum relative error is reduced by 7.1%, and under stable conditions, the relative error is reduced by 10.7%. Significance Statement: The evaporation duct height has a significant effect on marine radar or wireless apparatus applications. To obtain the evaporation duct height, there are some evaporation duct models that have been proposed. However, different evaporation duct models are applicable to different meteorological and hydrological environments. A single model cannot achieve accurate evaporation duct height predictions in all environments. We propose a model selection optimization method of the evaporation duct model based on sensitivity analysis. This method can dynamically select the optimal model according to different meteorological and hydrological environment, and improve the prediction accuracy of the evaporation duct height. Under unstable conditions, the maximum relative error is reduced by 7.1%, and under stable conditions, the relative error is reduced by 10.7%.

Evaporation ducts are abnormal states of the atmosphere in the air–sea boundary layer that directly affect the propagation trajectory of electromagnetic (EM) waves. Therefore, an accurate diagnosis of the evaporation duct height (EDH) is important for studying the propagation trajectory of EM waves in evaporation ducts. Most evaporation duct models (EDMs) based on the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory are empirical methods. Different EDMs have different levels of environmental adaptability. Evaporation duct diagnosis methods based on machine learning methods only consider the mathematical relationship between data and do not explore the physical mechanism of evaporation ducts. To solve the above problems, this study observed the meteorological and hydrological parameters of the five layers of the low-altitude atmosphere in the East China Sea on board the research vessel Xiangyanghong 18 in April 2021 and obtained the atmospheric refractivity profile. An evaporation duct multimodel fusion diagnosis method (MMF) based on a library for support vector machines (LIBSVM) is proposed. First, based on the observed meteorological and hydrological data, the differences between the EDH diagnosis results of different EDMs and MMF were analyzed. When ASTD ≥ 0, the average errors of the diagnostic results of BYC, NPS, NWA, NRL, LKB, and MMF are 2.57 m, 2.92 m, 2.67 m, 3.27 m, 2.57 m, and 0.24 m, respectively. When ASTD < 0, the average errors are 2.95 m, 2.94 m, 2.98 m, 2.99 m, 2.97 m, and 0.41 m, respectively. Then, the EM wave path loss accuracy analysis was performed on the EDH diagnosis results of the NPS model and the MMF. When ASTD ≥ 0, the average path loss errors of the NPS model and MMF are 5.44 dB and 2.74 dB, respectively. When ASTD < 0, the average errors are 5.21 dB and 3.46 dB, respectively. The results show that the MMF is suitable for EDH diagnosis, and the diagnosis accuracy is higher than other models.

In this study, an ensemble forecasting model for in situ wind speed and wave height was developed using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) model. This model utilized four bias correction algorithms—Model Output Statistics (MOS), Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)—to construct ensemble forecasts. The training data were derived from the COAWST simulations of one year and observations from three buoy stations (Laohutan, Zhifudao, and Lianyungang) in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. After the optimization of the bias correction model training, the subsequent evaluations on the ensemble forecasts showed that the in situ forecasting accuracy of wind speed and wave height was significantly improved. Although there were some uncertainties on bias correction performance levels for individual algorithms, the uncertainties were greatly reduced by the ensemble forecasts. Depending on the dynamic weight assignment, the ensemble forecasts presented a stable performance even when the corrected forecasts by three algorithms had an obvious negative bias. Specifically, the ensemble forecasting bias was found with a mean reduction of about 96%~99% and 91%~95% for wind speed and wave height, and a reduction of about 91%~98% and 16%~54% during the period of Typhoon “Muifa”. For the four correction algorithms, the performance of bias correction was not directly related to the algorithm complexity. However, the strategies with more complex algorithms (i.e., CNN) were more conservative, and simple algorithms (i.e., MOS) might have induced unstable performance levels despite their lower bias in some cases.

In this study, an experimental hydrometeorological forecasting system was developed based on the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model. The system downloads global real-time ocean, atmosphere, and wave forcing data, producing regional forecasts every day. A coastal area in South China, encompassing Hainan Island, Leizhou Peninsula, and surrounding sea areas, was chosen as the study domain. A series of 72-hour forecasting simulations were conducted in the area, lasting from July 27 to August 31, 2019. The forecasts throughout August were chosen for evaluation with station observations, along with two sets of reanalysis data, ERA5 and CLDAS. The evaluation results revealed that the COAWST model had high potential for routine forecasting operations. The 24 h forecasts, with a lead time of 24 hours, had high accuracy, while the 48 h and 72 h forecasts did not differ greatly in terms of performance. The distributions of bias between forecast and reanalysis data showed obvious differences between land and sea, with more forecasted precipitation and lower temperatures in land grids than in sea grids. In most cases, the forecasts were closer to ERA5 in terms of means and other statistical measures. The forecasts enlarged the land-sea differences of temperature when compared with ERA5 and strengthened summer monsoon with more moisture transported to land areas. Resulting from that, a forecasted bias of lower surface pressure, higher air humidity, stronger south wind, and so forth was also detected over the domain but at low values.

In this study, a diagnostic model for lower atmospheric ducts was developed using the polar weather research and forecasting model. A five-year simulation was then conducted across the entire Arctic region to investigate the temporal and spatial characteristics of lower atmospheric ducts. The model demonstrated excellent performance in simulating modified atmospheric refractivity, with root mean square errors ranging from 0 M to 5 M. The five-year simulation results revealed that duct occurrence rates across the Arctic region were all below 1% and exhibited a negative relationship with latitude. Regarding the difference between surface ducts and elevated ducts, a higher frequency of surface ducts was detected in the Arctic region. The height and thickness of surface ducts were generally lower than those of elevated ducts, but the strength of surface ducts was slightly greater. Regionally, surface ducts mainly occurred in the land areas surrounding the Arctic Ocean, while more elevated ducts were found in the North Atlantic Sea area. Additionally, a negative correlation was observed between the polar vortex indices and the characteristics of ducts, particularly for surface ducts. The ducts in Greenland were notably influenced by polar vortex activity, whereas the ducts in other regions, such as the Norwegian Sea and Kara Sea, were less affected.

The Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) model serves as the foundation for creating a forecast model to detect lower atmospheric ducts in this study. A set of prediction tests with different forecasting times focusing on the South China Sea domain was conducted to evaluate the short-term forecasting effectiveness of lower atmospheric ducts. The assessment of sounding observation data revealed that the prediction model performed well in predicting the characteristics of all types of ducts. The mean values of the forecasting errors were slightly lower than the reanalysis data but had lower levels of correlation coefficients. At an altitude of about 2000 m, the forecasted error of modified atmospheric refractivity reached peak values and then decreased gradually with increasing altitude. The accuracy of forecasted surface ducts was higher than that of elevated ducts. Noticeable land–sea differences were identified for the spatial distributions of duct characteristics, and the occurrence rates of both the surface and elevated ducts were high at sea. As for the differences among the forecasts of 24, 48, and 72 h ahead, the differences primarily occurred at altitude levels below 20 m and 500 m~1500 m, which are consistent with the differences in the duct height.