Modelling gully erosion in urban areas is challenging due to difficulties with equifinality and parameter identification, which complicates quantification 0of management impacts on runoff and sediment production. We calibrated a model (AnnAGNPS) of an ephemeral gully network that formed on unpaved roads following a storm event in an urban watershed (0.2 km²) in Tijuana, Mexico. Latin hypercube sampling was used to create 500 parameter ensembles. Modelled sediment load was most sensitive to the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number, tillage depth (T_D), and critical shear stress (τ_c). Twenty-one parameter ensembles gave acceptable error (behavioural models), though changes in parameters governing runoff generation (SCS curve number, Manning’s n) were compensated by changes in parameters describing soil properties (T_D, τ_c), resulting in uncertainty in the optimal parameter values. The most suitable parameter combinations or “behavioural models” were used to evaluate uncertainty under management scenarios. Paving the roads increased runoff by 146–227%, increased peak discharge by 178–575%, and decreased sediment load by 90–94% depending on the ensemble. The method can be used in other watersheds to simulate runoff and gully erosion, to quantify the uncertainty of model-estimated impacts of management activities on runoff and erosion, and to suggest critical field measurements to reduce uncertainties in complex urban environments.

Urbanization can increase sheet, rill, gully, and channel erosion. We quantified the sediment budget of the Los Laureles Canyon watershed (LLCW), which is a mixed rural-urbanizing catchment in Northwestern Mexico, using the AnnAGNPS model and field measurements of channel geometry. The model was calibrated with five years of observed runoff and sediment loads and used to evaluate sediment reduction under a mitigation scenario involving paving roads in hotspots of erosion. Calibrated runoff and sediment load had a mean-percent-bias of 28.4 and − 8.1, and root-mean-square errors of 85% and 41% of the mean, respectively. Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) collected at different locations during one storm-event correlated with modeled SSC at those locations, which suggests that the model represented spatial variation in sediment production. Simulated gully erosion represents 16%–37% of hillslope sediment production, and 50% of the hillslope sediment load is produced by only 23% of the watershed area. The model identifies priority locations for sediment control measures, and can be used to identify tradeoffs between sediment control and runoff production. Paving roads in priority areas would reduce total sediment yield by 30%, but may increase peak discharge moderately (1.6%–21%) at the outlet.

The Future Midwest Landscape (FML) project is part of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s new Ecosystem Services Research Program, undertaken to examine the variety of ways in which landscapes that include crop lands, conservation areas, wetlands, lakes, and streams affect human well-being. The goal of the FML project is to quantify current and future ecosystem services across the region and to examine changes expected to occur as a result of the growing demand for biofuels. This study is one of several pilots taking place under the umbrella of the FML research project. In this study, the USDA Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution (AnnAGNPS) model was applied to the East Fork Kaskaskia River watershed (289.3 km²) located in the Kaskaskia River Basin within the Upper Mississippi River Basin in Illinois. The effect of different spatial resolutions on model performance was investigated by comparing the observed runoff with the AnnAGNPS simulated results. Alternative future scenarios such as meeting future biofuel target were also simulated and analyzed. All delineations of the study area (coarser to finer) produced satisfactory results in simulating monthly and annual runoff. However, the size of the delineation does impact the simulation results. Finer delineations better represented the actual landscape and captured small critical areas that would be homogenized in coarser delineation. Those small critical areas are important to target to achieve maximum environment benefit. Simulations of alternative future scenarios showed that as corn production increases to meet future biofuel needs, total nitrogen loss increases. For this watershed, total N loss would be more than doubled if converting all corn/soybean rotation (15,871.2 ha) to continuous corn comparing with the base year total N loss which is 11.2 kg/ha. Conservation practices are needed to reduce total nitrogen loss from the watershed. This study provides an important foundation for the larger FML region modeling effort by addressing challenging FML landscape modeling issues such as model selection, need for further model development, and spatial resolution.