Today, oil is one of the most popular commodities traded globally, due to its indispensable character and multiple properties offered to mankind. Increased attention is paid to the analysis of volatile and fluctuating trends in the overall price of this valuable energy source. Using the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models such as GARCH(1,1), GARCH-M(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1), the present study has as a priority objective in estimating and predicting the volatility of the oil returns series (Brent Crude Oil return series) in the 1987-2022. The main results highlighted the preference in using the asymmetric model EGARCH (1,1) on the measurement of conditional variance, showing that Brent Crude Oil reacts over 90% to any existing market’s shock (i.e.: information, events, facts, news, etc.) in a negative manner/way. At the same time, various tests and evaluation conditions were used (ARCH-LM Test, Durbin-Waston Test, High Log likelihood, Lowest Schwarz Information Criteria) in investigating the level of performance in estimation the conditional crude oil volatility. Each GARCH (1,1) model is meeting brilliantly these conditions and acquiring the character of stability and validity in use. At the same time, performing forecast analysis on crude oil volatility in two different time periods: 1987-2022, respectively 2020-2022, it was shown that existence of the phenomenon of clustering-volatility over the time, with strong implications for the functioning mechanism of international financial markets. Fulfilling those restrictive conditions, the symmetric and parametric model GARCH-M (1,1) becomes, in our case, the most efficient model in forecasting the volatility of Brent Crude Oil return series in the analysed period.

The objective of this research paper is to apply a mathematical model to estimate and predict the economic growth of the Caspian countries in the period from 1995 to 2022. We use multiple regression by applying the OLS method to estimate the impact of global oil price, energy resource production per capita, trade, and renewable energy on GDP per capita. The mathematical approach uses fixed and random effects models to assess the overall impact of the independent variables on economic growth in this region and over the period analysed. This study also aims to investigate whether the explanatory variables are cointegrated in the long run; as such, we carry out several mathematical cointegration tests, namely the Pedroni and Johansen tests. The mathematical analysis is completed by the estimation of short- and long-run parameters using the stochastic VAR/VEC models, the impulse response function, and the causality test to assess economic growth in this region. This study’s main finding is that GDP per capita is increasingly influenced by its previous values, which is confirmed by considering lag 1 and lag 2. The results of the Granger causality tests identify several bidirectional relationships between GDP per capita and oil and gas production. These relationships are clearly positive evidence of the growth trend and progress of economic activity in the Caspian region. The practical implications of the study aim to promote and support the use of renewable energy sources. In this sense, policymakers in the Caspian countries should create favourable conditions for the transition to a green economy. An important aspect is the efforts of the government authorities to make their policies more environmentally friendly, as decarbonisation is a good practice in the current context of sustainability and related choices. As the Caspian countries are heavily dependent on conventional energy production, it is essential for them to increase their export earnings from energy resources via diversifying and strengthening new energy opportunities and partnerships.

The transition to a circular economy is imperative in order to confer considerable benefits upon the environment, the economy, and society. The present study aimed to analyse the interdependence and causal relationships between recyclable material consumption as the dependent variable and other independent variables, including the raw material footprint, the trade in recyclable materials, greenhouse gas emissions, investments in the circular economy sectors, the real GDP per capita, renewable energy sources, the circular material use rate, and the population within the 27 EU Member States from 2013 to 2021. In order to achieve the objective, a two-stage economic model was constructed using a panel approach. The research findings indicate a direct and positive correlation between the consumption of recyclable materials and all the aforementioned independent variables, with the exception of greenhouse gas emissions. This study confirms that innovation and investment significantly reduce environmental degradation, and, moreover, the efficiency of investment remains unaffected. A further relationship that emerged from this study is that developed countries have higher resource consumption, which is consistent with the cause of increased consumption being the rapid growth of the middle class around the world. The main conclusion is that Europe cannot achieve sustainable development without a circular economy.

The present article aims to analyze how the imbalances generated by the economic and medical crisis caused by the COVID 19 pandemic in 2020 were reflected in the balance and economic performance at the microeconomic level. Two companies operating in two of the most affected economic areas in 2020, Tourism and Pharmaceutical Industry, represented the foundation of our analysis. Accounting data from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account, available on the website of the Bucharest Stock Exchange, were the main tools for analyzing the impact that the economic and medical crisis had on indicators such as Working Capital, Self-financing Capacity, Current Ratio, Debt/Equity Ratio, Return on Assets, Return on Equity, etc. The period under consideration covers a period of 4 years, i.e., 2018-2021. The two areas of activity represent, in our opinion, two major poles of the effects of the COVID 19 pandemic, being the loser and the winner (in financial terms) of the economic and medical developments generated by these. The questions we propose to answer based on the financial analysis are: could these two companies also be considered the winner and the loser of 2020 crisis? And what is the story told by the financial data about a company's vulnerability during the crisis?

The aim of this research is to conduct an objective and predictive evaluation of Azerbaijan's economic growth from 1997 to 2022. Since Azerbaijan is a significant exporter and producer of energy resources, its economic growth is substantially influenced by the remarkable advancements in oil and gas extraction and production since the early 2000s. Methodologically, we have designed several models to ascertain the influence and impact of the following explanatory factors-oil reserves, natural gas reserves, net trade, current account balance, inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and carbon dioxide emissions - on the economic growth rate. The study utilised a combination of uni- and multi-factorial linear regression techniques, with accuracy and robustness testing conducted on all eight models. Research hypotheses were tested and a predictive analysis was implemented and evaluated over the studied period. Our findings demonstrate that the growth of Azerbaijan's economy is positively impacted by the dynamics and development of energy product trade, particularly in oil. As a result, GDP increased by an average of 2.50%. It is also confirmed that inflation and unemployment have a negative impact which unavoidably leads to instability and an economic downturn. In contrast, the robustness indicators (namely, RMSE, MAE and MAPE) could assess the predictive analysis of economic growth. The validated, low values further endorse the credibility of the eight models in accurately forecasting the economic growth rate throughout the studied period. The study disproves the existence of a positive correlation between GDP and the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions. However, it has been demonstrated that Azerbaijan is taking significant measures to achieve its environmental objectives. These measures include the implementation of taxation, a reduction in CO₂ emissions by up to 55% by 2030, and a shift towards renewable energy sources. Our research aims to enhance the utilisation of renewable energy resources, increase the efficiency of the domestic energy infrastructure and implement measures to moderate high levels of unemployment and inflation, thus ensuring sustained economic growth in Azerbaijan.