Spinning reserve without accurate load forecasting can lead to automatic disconnection of critical loads by under-frequency load shedding devices. Such a predicament poses a grave threat to the economic and social welfare of the affected region, and in extreme scenarios, can result in a debilitating grid collapse. However, existing models lack the deep feature extraction capability and cannot accurately predict the uncertainty of electricity demand. Thus, a multitask integrated deep-learning probabilistic prediction with multidimensional feature extraction based on granularity information and quantile regression is explored in this study to solve the insufficient feature extraction problem in probabilistic prediction. In the proposed scheme, we designed a multi-layer feature extraction framework, which information granularity based on fuzzy rough sets to extract time-domain features, multilayer Laplace operators to extract features globally, and quantile regression recurrent neural network variants to extract time context information. In addition, the Pareto integration method is extended to capture better individuals. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed system can effectively improve deterministic forecasting and uncertainty analysis of electricity demand and manage daily fluctuations.
Hydroenergy is developed due to its low-cost and near-zero pollution emission properties; therefore, the efficient management of hydroenergy is an important goal of sustainable development for any nation, especially for China, since it owns the most abundant water resources around the world. Developing hydroenergy is not only an effective response to the energy crisis but also a positive way to cope with climate change in China. Nevertheless, research on hydroenergy in China is still not comprehensive. This study reviews hydroenergy development in China by combining its geographical characteristics and hydroenergy reserves. The general condition of hydropower development including large- and medium-scale hydropower stations and small hydropower development is presented. This article illuminates the potential problems and existing challenges in China’s hydropower development and relevant exploitation suggestions are provided for hydropower development in the future.
1 November 2017 in Energy Conversion and Management
In practice, classification problems have appeared in many scientific fields, including finance, medicine and industry. It is critically important to develop an effective and accurate classification model. Although numerous useful classifiers have been proposed, they are unstable, sensitive to noise and slow in computation. To overcome these drawbacks, the combination of feature selection techniques with traditional machine learning models is of great help. In this paper, a novel feature selection method called the opposition-based seagull optimization algorithm (OSOA) is proposed and studied. The OSOA is constructed based on an SOA whose population is determined by the opposition-based learning (OBL) algorithm. To evaluate its overall classification performance, some measures, including classification accuracy, number of selected features, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and computation time, are adopted. The empirical results indicate that the suggested method exhibits higher or similar accuracy and computational efficiency in comparison with genetic algorithm (GA)-, simulated annealing (SA)-, and Fisher score (FS)- based classification models. The experimental results show that the OSOA is a computationally efficient feature selection technique that has the ability to select relevant variables. Furthermore, it performs well with high-dimensional data whose number of variables exceeds the number of samples. Thus, the OSOA is an effective approach for the enhancement of classification performance.
In recent decades, the integration of solar energy sources has gradually become the main challenge for global energy consumption. Therefore, it is essential to predict global solar radiation in an accurate and efficient way when estimating outputs of the solar system. Inaccurate predictions either cause load overestimation that results in increased cost or failure to gather adequate supplies. However, accurate forecasting is a challenging task because solar resources are intermittent and uncontrollable. To tackle this difficulty, several machine learning models have been established; however, the forecasting outcomes of these models are not sufficiently accurate. Therefore, in this study, we investigate ensemble learning with square root regularization and intelligent optimization to forecast hourly global solar radiation. The main structure of the proposed method is constructed based on ensemble learning with a random subspace (RS) method that divides the original data into several covariate subspaces. A novel covariate‐selection method called square root smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SRSCAD) is proposed and is applied to each subspace with efficient extraction of relevant covariates. To combine the forecasts obtained using RS and SRSCAD, a firefly algorithm (FA) is used to estimate the weights assigned to individual forecasts. To handle the complexity of the proposed ensemble system, a simple and efficient algorithm is derived based on a thresholding rule and accelerated gradient method. To illustrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method, global solar radiation datasets of eight locations of Xinjiang province in China are considered. The experimental results show that the proposed RS‐SRSCAD‐FA achieves the best performances with a mean absolute percentage error, root‐mean‐square error, Theil inequality coefficient, and correlation coefficient of 0.066, 20.21 W/m2, 0.016, 3.40 s, and 0.98 in site 1, respectively. For the other seven datasets, RS‐SRSCAD‐FA still outperforms other approaches. Finally, a nonparametric Friedman test is applied to perform statistical comparisons of results over eight datasets.