Aim: As a prominent geographical distribution centre for the dark coniferous forests, mountains of Southwest China (MSWC) is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, posing severe challenges to the survival of dominant fir (Abies) species. Although plant's migration ability is a prerequisite for its survival in changing environments, it has often been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This study aimed to quantify the magnitude and direction of range changes by the year 2080 for six dominant fir species, that isAbies recurvata,Abies faxoniana,Abies squamata,Abies ernestii,Abies forrestiiandAbies georgei, with an emphasis on exploring the relationship between migration ability and projected distributions.Location: The mountains of Southwest China.Methods: We applied the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm to calibrate ecological niche models and to project the climatically suitable areas (CSAs) of each species under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Additionally, we delimited future species ranges by three migration scenarios (full‐, no‐ and partial‐migration scenarios).Results: The simulations showed the distinctive responses of the six fir species to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). By 2080, the distribution areas ofAbies recurvatawere projected to decline only in the no‐migration scenario but increase under the full‐ and partial‐migration scenarios, while the other five species were projected to decline in the majority of emission × migration scenarios. Fir species in the southern region were predicted to be more vulnerable to ACC due to the larger losses in CSAs and a stronger effect of the partial‐migration scenario on the newly colonized areas of this group. The studied species showed a simulated migration trend (northward and westward) to the interior Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under ACC.Main conclusions: Benefits or losses for species under ACC depended on the geographical location, their ecological niches and migration abilities, which provide essential insights for a spatial conservation assessment of biodiversity hotspots in the future.

National parks, as an important type of nature protected areas, are the cornerstone that can effectively maintain biodiversity and mitigate global climate change. At present, China is making every effort to build a nature-protection system, with national parks as the main body, and this approach considers China′s urgent goals of obtaining carbon neutrality and mitigating climate change. It is of great significance to the national carbon-neutralization strategy to accurately predict the carbon sink capacity of national park ecosystems under the background of global change. To evaluate and predict the dynamics of the carbon sink capacity of national parks under climate change and different management measures, we combined remote-sensing observations, model simulations and scenario analyses to simulate the change in the carbon sink capacity of the proposed Kunlun Mountain National Park ecosystem over the past two decades (2000–2020) and the change in the carbon sink capacity under different zoning controls and various climate change scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Our results show that the carbon sink capacity of the proposed Kunlun Mountain National Park area is increasing. Simultaneously, the carbon sink capacity will be improved with the implementation of park management and control measures; which will be increased by 2.04% to 2.13% by 2060 in the research area under multiple climate change scenarios. The research results provide a scientific basis for the establishment and final boundary determination of the proposed Kunlun Mountain National Park.

Understanding the relationships between species richness patterns and environment constitutes a key issue in biogeography and conservation strategies. To our knowledge, this is the first integrative study that incorporates soil and human-influence data into species richness modelling. Our aims were to (a) estimate the richness patterns of four conifers groups (all conifers species, endemics, threatened, and endemic-threatened species) in south-west China, (b) assess the relative importance of environmental predictors (energy, water, climate, topography, and soil) and the human-influence on the conifers richness patterns and (c) identify hotspot ecoregions, nature reserves, or important plant areas as priority conservation areas. Generalized linear models and hierarchical partitioning were used by correlating 8962 distributional records of 97 conifer species with different environmental drivers. Results indicated that central Sichuan, northern Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and the southern areas of the Hengduan mountains were identified as distinct centres of conifers richness in China. Topographic heterogeneity and soil fertility were the strongest drivers of conifer richness patterns, while climate, energy, water, and human drivers were contributed to a lower degree. The identified conifers’ important areas were mostly located outside of the existing nature reserves but inside the ecoregions. Our findings emphasize that incorporating soil data into spatial modelling provides great insights for the conservation of conifers species. We recommend conservationists to use soil variables and other environmental data to generate a comprehensive understanding of the key drivers underlying the patterns of conifer diversity and distribution.

Extinction debt describes the time-lagged process of species extinction, which usually requires dozens to hundreds of years to be paid off. However, due to the lack of long-term habitat data, it is indeterminate how strong the signal of extinction debts is at the global scale and when the debts started. Here, by compiling the geographical distributions of 6120 reptiles, 6047 amphibians, and 4278 mammals and correlating them with annual forest cover data from 1500 to 1992, we show that the beginning of the Second Industrial Revolution (the mid-19^thcentury) was the earliest signal of cumulative extinction debts for global forest-dwelling vertebrate groups. More importantly, the impact of global protected areas on mitigating accumulated vertebrate extinction debt is not as immediate as that of mitigating reduced forest cover but rather suffers from pronounced time-lag effects. As the disequilibrium of vertebrate richness and forested habitat is currently taking place, preventive actions should be taken to promote a well-balanced status among forest restoration, protected areas, and biodiversity conservation to slow the accumulating debts for global forest-dwelling vertebrates.