Planning and operational systemwide analyses relying on a deterministic optimal power flow (OPF) are subject to the uncertainties associated with the stochasticity of non-conventional renewables such as solar and wind. In this context, forecasting techniques will be essential for future power grids. An accurate and reliable forecast can complement a conventional time series optimal power flow (TSOPF) formulation by tackling uncertainty via accurate estimates of the intermittent generation resources. By doing so, the need for complex forecasting models is bypassed, and the computational tractability of the TSOPF problem is significantly reduced. Our work introduces a method to produce realistic load profiles, together with solar and wind generation forecasts. The generated data records are then input to a conventional TSOPF problem to determine the impact of an increasing share of non-conventional renewables into the grid over five years; we analyze increased penetration levels of 12%, 20%, 25%, and 30%. Our case study corresponds to an adapted version of the IEEE 39 test case, tailored to match the ISONE region transmission system. Forecasts are made using a data-driven neural network technique that accounts for the weather conditions in distinct locations of the ISONE footprint. Our results show several benefits of increased penetration of renewables, such as reducing line overloading and preventing undervoltage scenarios. However, it also points out potential problems that system planners might have to address by expanding the system or commissioning new equipment in particular locations.

Extreme weather events present some of the most severe natural threats to the electric grid, and accurate load forecasting during those events is essential for grid management and disaster preparedness. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of hybrid deep learning (DL) models for electrical load forecasting in the IEEE 118-bus system. Our analysis focuses on the Connecticut region during extreme weather. In addition, we determine multivariate models capable of multi-input and multi-output forecasting while incorporating weather data to improve forecasting accuracy. This research is divided into two case studies that analyze different combined DL model architectures. Case Study 1 conducts CNN-Recurrent (RNN, LSTM, GRU, BiRNN, BiGRU, and BiLSTM) models with fully connected dense layers, which combine convolution and recurrent neural networks to capture both spatial and temporal dependencies in the data. Case Study 2 evaluates Hybrid CNN-Recurrent models with a fully connected dense layer model that incorporates a flattening step before the recurrent layers to increase the temporal learning process. Based on the results obtained from our simulations, the hybrid CNN-GRU-FC (using BiGRU) model in Case Study 2 obtained the best performance with an RMSE of 9.112 MW and MAPE of 11.68% during the hurricane period. The Hybrid CNN-GRU-FC model presents a better accuracy of bidirectional recurrent models for load forecasting under extreme weather conditions.

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as intense windstorms, with a trend expected to worsen due to global warming. The growing intensity and frequency of these events are causing a significant number of failures in power distribution grids. However, understanding the nature of extreme wind events and predicting their impact on distribution grids can help and prevent these issues, potentially mitigating their adverse effects. This study analyzes a structured method to predict distribution grid disruptions caused by extreme wind events. The method utilizes Machine Learning (ML) models, including K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Trees (DTs), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Gaussian Process (GP), Deep Neural Network (DNN), and Ensemble Learning which combines RF, SVM and GP to analyze synthetic failure data and predict power grid outages. The study utilized meteorological information, physical fragility curves, and scenario generation for distribution systems. The approach is validated by using five-fold cross-validation on the dataset, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing predictive capabilities against extreme wind events. Experimental results showed that the Ensemble Learning, GP, and SVM models outperformed other predictive models in the binary classification task of identifying failures or non-failures, achieving the highest performance metrics.

The higher penetration of renewable energy sources in current and future power grids requires effective optimization models to solve economic dispatch (ED) and optimal power flow (OPF) problems. Data-driven optimization models have shown promising results compared to classical algorithms because they can address complex and computationally demanding problems and obtain the most cost-effective solution for dispatching generators. This study compares the forecast performance of selected data-driven models using the modified IEEE 39 benchmark system with high penetration of wind power generation. The active and reactive power load data of each bus are generated using Monte Carlo simulations, and synthetic wind power data are generated by utilizing a physical wind turbine model and wind speed samples withdrawn from a Weibull distribution. The objective is to design and evaluate an enhanced deep learning approach for the nonlinear, nonconvex alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) problem. The study attempts to establish relationships between loads, generators, and bus outcomes, utilizing a multiple-input, multiple-output (MIMO) workflow. Specifically, the study compares the forecast error reduction of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), deep feed-forward neural networks (DFFNNs), combined/hybrid CNN-DFFNN models, and the transfer learning (TL) approach. The results indicate that the proposed combined model outperforms the CNN, hybrid CNN-DFFNN, and TL models by a small margin and the DFFNN by a large margin.