Malaysia has been facing transboundary haze events repeatedly, in which the air contains extremely high particulate matter, particularly PM10, which affects human health and the environment. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the characteristics of PM10 concentration and develop a reliable PM10 forecasting model for early information and warning alerts to the responsible parties in order for them to mitigate and plan precautionary measures during such events. This study aims to analyze PM10 variation and investigate the performance of quantile regression in predicting the next-day, the next two days, and the next three days of PM10 levels during a high particulate event. Hourly secondary data of trace gases and the weather parameters at Pasir Gudang, Melaka, and Petaling Jaya during historical haze events in 1997, 2005, 2013, and 2015. The Pearson correlation was calculated to find the correlation between PM10 level and other parameters. Moderate correlated parameters (r > 0.3) with PM10 concentration were used to develop a Pearson–QR model with percentiles of 0.25, 0.50, and 0.75 and were compared using quantile regression (QR) and multiple linear regression (MLR). Several performance indicators, namely mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R²), and index of agreement (IA), were calculated to evaluate and compare the performances of the predictive model. The highest daily average of PM10 concentration was monitored in Melaka within the range of 69.7 and 83.3 µg/m³. CO and temperature were the most significant parameters associated with PM10 level during haze conditions. Quantile regression at p = 0.75 shows high efficiency in predicting PM10 level during haze events, especially for the short-term prediction in Melaka and Petaling Jaya, with an R² value of >0.85. Thus, the QR model has high potential to be developed as an effective method for forecasting air pollutant levels, especially during unusual atmospheric conditions when the overall mean of the air pollutant level is not suitable for use as a model.

Almost all of the data obtained from hydrological station contains missing data. Usually, this problem occurs due to equipment failures, maintenance work and human error. Incomplete dataset will reduce the ability of a statistical analysis and can cause a bias estimation due to systematic differences between observed and unobserved data. In this study, four simple statistical method such as Series Mean, Average Mean Top Bottom, Linear Interpolation and Nearest Neighbour were applied to predict the missing values in a rainfall dataset. An annual daily data for rainfall from nine selected monitoring station (from 2009 until 2018) were described using descriptive statistic. Then, the dataset were randomly simulated into 4 percentages of missing (5%, 10%, 15% and 20%) by using statistical package for social sciences software. The performance of this imputation methods were evaluated by using four performance indicators namely Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error, Prediction Accuracy, and Index of Agreement. Overall, Linear Interpolation method was selected as the best imputation method to predict the missing data in the rainfall dataset.

This study investigated a time series model using a moving average (MA) for predicting rainfall trend in seven areas (Panggang, Gedangan, Kedung Keris, Ngawen, Wanagama, Tepus, and Playen) located in the Gunung Kidul Province, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. A database with daily rainfall data covering the period of 2010–2019 obtained from the Central Statistical Body of Gunungkidul District (BPS), Indonesia, were analysed. In this study, the MA was developed using Microsoft Excel. Six performance indicators, including Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Index of Agreement (IA), were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the time series model. The results specify that the MA is a reliable model, with the RMSE and IA values in the ranges of 10.7–18.3 and 0.80–0.85, respectively. Small error and high agreement rates between the observed and predicted values indicates that prediction using MA method has good potential to be used as one of the prediction tools for rainfall modelling.