Bacteria and fungi drive the decomposition of dead plant biomass (litter), an important step in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Here we investigate the sensitivity of litter microbial communities to simulated global change (drought and nitrogen addition) in a California annual grassland. Using 16S and 28S rDNA amplicon pyrosequencing, we quantify the response of the bacterial and fungal communities to the treatments and compare these results to background, temporal (seasonal and interannual) variability of the communities. We found that the drought and nitrogen treatments both had significant effects on microbial community composition, explaining 2–6% of total compositional variation. However, microbial composition was even more strongly influenced by seasonal and annual variation (explaining 14–39%). The response of microbial composition to drought varied by season, while the effect of the nitrogen addition treatment was constant through time. These compositional responses were similar in magnitude to those seen in microbial enzyme activities and the surrounding plant community, but did not correspond to a consistent effect on leaf litter decomposition rate. Overall, these patterns indicate that, in this ecosystem, temporal variability in the composition of leaf litter microorganisms largely surpasses that expected in a short-term global change experiment. Thus, as for plant communities, future microbial communities will likely be determined by the interplay between rapid, local background variability and slower, global changes.

Vegetation‐type conversions between grasslands and shrublands have occurred worldwide in semiarid regions over the last 150 years. Areas once covered by drought‐deciduous shrubs in Southern California (coastal sage scrub) are converting to grasslands dominated by nonnative species. Increasing fire frequency, drought, and nitrogen deposition have all been hypothesized as causes of this conversion, though there is little direct evidence. We constructed rain‐out shelters in a coastal sage scrub community following a wildfire, manipulated water and nitrogen input in a split‐plot design, and collected annual data on community composition for four years. While shrub cover increased through time in all plots during the postfire succession, both drought and nitrogen significantly slowed recovery. Four years after the fire, average native shrub cover ranged from over 80% in water addition, ambient‐nitrogen plots to 20% in water reduction, nitrogen addition plots. Nonnative grass cover was high following the fire and remained high in the water reduction plots through the third spring after the fire, before decreasing in the fourth year of the study. Adding nitrogen decreased the cover of native plants and increased the cover of nonnative grasses, but also increased the growth of one crown‐sprouting shrub species. Our results suggest that extreme drought during postfire succession may slow or alter succession, possibly facilitating vegetation‐type conversion of coastal sage scrub to grassland. Nitrogen addition slowed succession and, when combined with drought, significantly decreased native cover and increased grass cover. Fire, drought, and atmospheric N deposition are widespread aspects of environmental change that occur simultaneously in this system. Our results imply these drivers of change may reinforce each other, leading to a continued decline of native shrubs and conversion to annual grassland.