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Hongyan Li
Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China

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Journal article
Published: 29 August 2021 in Sustainability
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Changes in hydrological cycles and water resources will certainly be a direct consequence of climate change, making the forecast of hydrological components essential for water resource assessment and management. This research was thus carried out to estimate water balance components and water yield under current and future climate change scenarios and trends in the Guder Catchment of the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia, using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Hydrological modeling was efficaciously calibrated and validated using the SUFI-2 algorithm of the SWAT model. The results showed that water yield varied from 926 mm to 1340 mm per year (1986–2016). Regional climate model (RCM) data showed, under representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5), that the precipitation will decrease by up to 14.4% relative to the baseline (1986–2016) precipitation of 1228 mm/year, while the air temperature will rise under RCP 8.5 by +4.4 °C in the period from 2057 to 2086, possibly reducing the future basin water yield output, suggesting that the RCP 8.5 prediction will be warmer than RCP 4.5. Under RCP 8.5, the total water yield from 2024 to 2086 may be reduced by 3.2 mm per year, and a significant trend was observed. Local government agencies can arrange projects to solve community water-related issues based on these findings.

ACS Style

Tewekel Melese Gemechu; Hongling Zhao; Shanshan Bao; Cidan Yangzong; Yingying Liu; Fengping Li; Hongyan Li. Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT. Sustainability 2021, 13, 9689 .

AMA Style

Tewekel Melese Gemechu, Hongling Zhao, Shanshan Bao, Cidan Yangzong, Yingying Liu, Fengping Li, Hongyan Li. Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (17):9689.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tewekel Melese Gemechu; Hongling Zhao; Shanshan Bao; Cidan Yangzong; Yingying Liu; Fengping Li; Hongyan Li. 2021. "Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT." Sustainability 13, no. 17: 9689.

Journal article
Published: 23 September 2020 in Water
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In the past several decades, climate change and human activities have influenced hydrological processes, and potentially caused more frequent and extensive flood and drought risks. Therefore, identification and quantification of the driving factors of runoff variation have become a hot research area. This paper used the trend analysis method to show that runoff had a significant downward trend during the past 60 years in the Second Songhua River Basin (SSRB) of Northeast China. The upper, middle, and lower streams of five hydrological stations were selected to analyze the breakpoint of the annual runoff in the past 60 years, and the breakpoints were used to divide the entire study period into two sub-periods (1956–1974 and 1975–2015). Using the water–energy coupling balance method based on Choudhury–Yang equation, the climatic and catchment landscape elasticity coefficient of the annual runoff change was estimated, and attribution analysis of the runoff change was carried out for the Fengman Reservoir and Fuyu stations in SSRB. The change in potential evapotranspiration has a weak effect on the runoff, and change in precipitation and catchment landscape were the leading factors affecting runoff. Impacts of climate change and land cover change were accountable for the runoff decrease by 80% and 11% (Fengman), 17% and 206% (Fuyu) on average, respectively; runoff was more sensitive to climate change in Fengman, and was more sensitive to catchment landscape change in Fuyu. In Fengman, the population was small, owing to the comparatively inhospitable natural conditions, and so human activities were low. However, in Fuyu, human activities were more intensive, and so had more impact on runoff for the Lower Second Songhua River compared to the Upper Second Songhua River.

ACS Style

Bao Shanshan; Yang Wei; Wang Xiaojun; Li HongYan. Quantifying Contributions of Climate Change and Local Human Activities to Runoff Decline in the Second Songhua River Basin. Water 2020, 12, 2659 .

AMA Style

Bao Shanshan, Yang Wei, Wang Xiaojun, Li HongYan. Quantifying Contributions of Climate Change and Local Human Activities to Runoff Decline in the Second Songhua River Basin. Water. 2020; 12 (10):2659.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bao Shanshan; Yang Wei; Wang Xiaojun; Li HongYan. 2020. "Quantifying Contributions of Climate Change and Local Human Activities to Runoff Decline in the Second Songhua River Basin." Water 12, no. 10: 2659.

Journal article
Published: 07 August 2020 in Water
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Low Impact Development (LID) is one of the sustainable approaches to urban stormwater management in areas with rapid urbanization. Although LID has been shown to have a positive effect in flood reduction, the hydrological balance regulation effect of LID under a variety of rainfall events is not fully understood. In this study, we assessed the hydrological efficiency of LID at two residential–commercial mixed sites in Korea to investigate the main function of LID in terms of diverse rainfall characteristics. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was constructed to simulate the hydrological process numerical simulations in the pre-development, post-development and LID design scenarios, respectively. The model was calibrated and validated by using five observed rainfall–runoff events. Then, four single and four multiple LID practices (LIDs) were used to estimate their effectiveness under seven different designed rainfall events. The results indicate that LIDs substantially influence the hydrology cycle system, while the regulating effect varies with rainfall amounts. The efficiency of LIDs in flood reduction is proved to be more effective during lower storm events. However, LIDs should be designed to primarily prioritize the restoration of hydrological balance when the rainfall return period is longer.

ACS Style

Meiyan Feng; Kwansue Jung; Fengping Li; Hongyan Li; Joo-Cheol Kim. Evaluation of the Main Function of Low Impact Development Based on Rainfall Events. Water 2020, 12, 2231 .

AMA Style

Meiyan Feng, Kwansue Jung, Fengping Li, Hongyan Li, Joo-Cheol Kim. Evaluation of the Main Function of Low Impact Development Based on Rainfall Events. Water. 2020; 12 (8):2231.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Meiyan Feng; Kwansue Jung; Fengping Li; Hongyan Li; Joo-Cheol Kim. 2020. "Evaluation of the Main Function of Low Impact Development Based on Rainfall Events." Water 12, no. 8: 2231.

Journal article
Published: 26 February 2020 in Water
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Snowmelt is the main source of runoff in the alpine regions of northern China. When using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to simulate snowmelt runoff, the snowmelt date and snowmelt factor parameters are set according to the North American values. To improve the accuracy of the runoff simulation in northern China, we innovatively used a baseflow segmentation method to determine the snowmelt time, taking temperature as a reference. The snowmelt period was extracted from statistical data, and the corresponding parameters in the source code of SWAT were optimized for the study area. After the calibration was completed, the modified simulation value was compared with the original code simulation value. The simulation accuracy of the daily runoff was improved, and we found that the greater the difference between the source code simulation value and the observed value was, the better the simulation accuracy. Therefore, modifying the source code in SWAT is an effective way to improve the accuracy of simulations of Alpine regions in Northern China. The results show that adjustments to the snowmelt modules of SWAT to reflect local conditions can be an effective way to improve the predictions.

ACS Style

Yan Liu; Geng Cui; Hongyan Li. Optimization and Application of Snow Melting Modules in SWAT Model for the Alpine Regions of Northern China. Water 2020, 12, 636 .

AMA Style

Yan Liu, Geng Cui, Hongyan Li. Optimization and Application of Snow Melting Modules in SWAT Model for the Alpine Regions of Northern China. Water. 2020; 12 (3):636.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yan Liu; Geng Cui; Hongyan Li. 2020. "Optimization and Application of Snow Melting Modules in SWAT Model for the Alpine Regions of Northern China." Water 12, no. 3: 636.

Journal article
Published: 20 February 2020 in Scientific Reports
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Surface water is the main source of irrigation and drinking water for rural communities by the Hulan River basin, an important grain-producing region in northeastern China. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quality and its driving forces is critical for sustainable development and the protection of water resources in the basin. Following sample collection and testing, the spatial distribution and driving forces of water quality were investigated using cluster analysis, hydrochemical feature partitioning, and Gibbs diagrams. The results demonstrated that the surface waters of the Hulan River Basin tend to be medium–weakly alkaline with a low degree of mineralization and water-rock interaction. Changes in topography and land use, confluence, application of pesticides and fertilizers, and the development of tourism were found to be important driving forces affecting the water quality of the basin. Non-point source pollution load fluxes of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) were simulated using the Soil Water and Assessment Tool. The simulation demonstrated that the non-point source pollution loading is low upstream and increases downstream. The distributions of N and P loading varied throughout the basin. The findings of this study provide information regarding the spatial distribution of water quality in the region and present a scientific basis for future pollution control.

ACS Style

Yan Liu; Hongyan Li; Geng Cui; Yuqing Cao. Water quality attribution and simulation of non-point source pollution load flux in the Hulan River basin. Scientific Reports 2020, 10, 1 -15.

AMA Style

Yan Liu, Hongyan Li, Geng Cui, Yuqing Cao. Water quality attribution and simulation of non-point source pollution load flux in the Hulan River basin. Scientific Reports. 2020; 10 (1):1-15.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yan Liu; Hongyan Li; Geng Cui; Yuqing Cao. 2020. "Water quality attribution and simulation of non-point source pollution load flux in the Hulan River basin." Scientific Reports 10, no. 1: 1-15.

Journal article
Published: 31 May 2019 in Forests
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The objectives of this study were to assess land use changes and their hydrological impacts in the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was employed to evaluate the impacts of land use changes. The Cellular Automata-Markov model was used to predict a land use map in 2038. Streamflow under each land use state was simulated by the SWAT model. The results showed that there was a significant expansion of agriculture area at the expense of large areas of grassland, wetland, and forest during 1975–2000. The land use changes during the period of 1975 to 2000 had decreased the water yield (3.5%), surface runoff (1.7%), and baseflow (19%) while they increased the annual evapotranspiration (2.1%). For impacts of individual land use type, the forest proved to have reduced streamflow in the flood season (10%–28%) and increased surface runoff in the drought season (20%–38%). Conversely, grassland, dry land, and paddy land scenarios resulted in increase of streamflow during summer months by 7%–37% and a decrease of streamflow in the cold seasons by 11.7%–59.7%. When the entire basin was changed to wetland, streamflow reduced over the whole year, with the largest reduction during January to March. The 2038 land use condition is expected to increase the annual water yield, surface runoff and wet season flow, and reduce evapotranspiration and baseflow. These results could help to improve sustainable land use management and water utilization in the NRB.

ACS Style

Fengping Li; Guangxin Zhang; Hongyan Li; Wenxi Lu. Land Use Change Impacts on Hydrology in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China. Forests 2019, 10, 476 .

AMA Style

Fengping Li, Guangxin Zhang, Hongyan Li, Wenxi Lu. Land Use Change Impacts on Hydrology in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China. Forests. 2019; 10 (6):476.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Fengping Li; Guangxin Zhang; Hongyan Li; Wenxi Lu. 2019. "Land Use Change Impacts on Hydrology in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China." Forests 10, no. 6: 476.

Journal article
Published: 03 January 2019 in Water
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Drought monitoring is one of the significant issues of water resources assessment. Multiple drought indices (DIs), including Percent of Normal (PN), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), statistical Z-Score, and Effective Drought Index (EDI) at 18 different timesteps were employed to evaluate the drought condition in Wuyuer River Basin (WRB), Northeast China. Daily precipitation data of 50 years (1960–2010) from three meteorological stations were used in this study. We found DIs with intermediate time steps (7 to 18 months) to have the highest predictive values for identifying droughts. And DIs exhibited a better similarity in the 12-month timestep. Among all the DIs, EDI exhibited the best correlation with other DIs for various timesteps. When further comparing with historical droughts, Z-Score, SPI, and EDI were found more sensitive to multi-monthly cumulative precipitation changes (r2 > 0.55) with respect to monthly precipitation changes (r2 ≤ 0.10), while EDI was more preferable when only monthly precipitation data were available. These results indicated that various indices for different timesteps should be investigated in drought monitoring in WRB, especially the intermediate timesteps should be considered.

ACS Style

Fengping Li; Hongyan Li; Wenxi Lu; Guangxin Zhang; Joo-Cheol Kim. Meteorological Drought Monitoring in Northeastern China Using Multiple Indices. Water 2019, 11, 72 .

AMA Style

Fengping Li, Hongyan Li, Wenxi Lu, Guangxin Zhang, Joo-Cheol Kim. Meteorological Drought Monitoring in Northeastern China Using Multiple Indices. Water. 2019; 11 (1):72.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Fengping Li; Hongyan Li; Wenxi Lu; Guangxin Zhang; Joo-Cheol Kim. 2019. "Meteorological Drought Monitoring in Northeastern China Using Multiple Indices." Water 11, no. 1: 72.

Original paper
Published: 01 October 2018 in Theoretical and Applied Climatology
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This study examined hydrological and meteorological changes in China’s Nenjiang River Basin. Taking account of the physical processes in hydrology and meteorology revealed by the hydrological elements, we selected typical periods and sites for analysis on temperature (1951–2004), precipitation, and runoff data (1955–2005). Through some methods including improved cumulative curve method, the Sen slope estimation method, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test analysis, the Pettitt mutation point test and Spearman rank correlation test, and the spatiotemporal characteristics of hydrological and meteorological elements were evaluated. An innovative concept of the “centroid of precipitation” was proposed to analyze the spatial evolution tendency of precipitation. The results are concluded as follows: (1) the temperature began to show a rising trend during the 1960s and 1970s in Nenjiang River Basin in the twentieth century. The temperature had risen significantly by the 1990s. Furthermore, the temperature increased significantly at the coldest place and in the coldest month. (2) There was no significant trend change in the annual precipitation in the Nenjiang River Basin. However, monthly precipitation before the flood season (April) and after the flood season (October) exhibited a significant upward trend. The centroid of precipitation was concentrated in a compact spatial distribution in the main flood season but was dispersed relatively in the other months. (3) River runoff showed a downward trend year by year and exhibited a mutation in 1979. The spatial variation in runoff showed that the fluctuation of downstream runoff was greater than that in the upper reaches of the basin and that the runoff from the upstream to the downstream reaches gradually decreased. According to the M-K mutation point test, the Pettitt mutation point test, and the improved cumulative curve method, a mutation in annual runoff sequence occurred in 1979. These findings will be helpful for understanding evolution of hydrological changes and will be supportive for local water managers to deal with changing climate.

ACS Style

Jiaqi Sun; Xiaojun Wang; Yongqiang Cao; Hongyan Li; Kwnasue Jung. Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution of hydrological and meteorological elements in Nenjiang River basin, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2018, 137, 941 -961.

AMA Style

Jiaqi Sun, Xiaojun Wang, Yongqiang Cao, Hongyan Li, Kwnasue Jung. Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution of hydrological and meteorological elements in Nenjiang River basin, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2018; 137 (1-2):941-961.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jiaqi Sun; Xiaojun Wang; Yongqiang Cao; Hongyan Li; Kwnasue Jung. 2018. "Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution of hydrological and meteorological elements in Nenjiang River basin, China." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 137, no. 1-2: 941-961.

Journal article
Published: 04 April 2018 in Water
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The calculation of hydrologic frequency is an important basic step in the planning and design stage of any water conservancy project. The purpose of the frequency analysis is to deduce the hydrologic variables under different guarantee rates, and to provide hydrologic information for water conservancy project planning and design. The calculation of hydrologic frequency requires that the sample size is large enough, as only then can the statistical characteristics of samples take the place of the total statistical eigenvalues. This means that the samples can reveal the statistical characteristics of hydrologic variables and identify the randomness rule of hydrologic phenomena. Many countries in the East Asian monsoon climate zone (China, Japan and South Korea) have stipulated a sample size of 30 years for hydrologic frequency analysis. In this paper the rationality of the 30-year sample size is proved by analyzing the periodic and random rules of hydrologic phenomenon and the influencing mechanism of solar activity, and by adopting the general conclusion of the sampling theorem. Then, using the wavelet analysis method to examine annual precipitation data in a long series generated from representative precipitation observation stations in China, the strong-weak cycle of solar activity is proved to be 10 years, which is consistent with the wet-dry cycle of the representative precipitation stations (10–12 years). Finally, adopting numerical modeling to analyze the normal distribution of randomly generated samples and long-range annual precipitation data collected from representative stations, hypothesis testing (u, F and t) is used to prove that a 30-year sample size is reasonable. This research provides a reference as to how to prove the necessary sample size for relevant statistical analyses (for example, how large the sample should be for analyzing hydrologic factors trend evolution, hydrologic data consistency and ergodicity of statistical samples), thus ensuring the reliability of the analytical results.

ACS Style

Hongyan Li; Jiaqi Sun; Hongbo Zhang; Jianfeng Zhang; Kwnasue Jung; Joocheol Kim; Yunqing Xuan; Xiaojun Wang; Fengping Li. What Large Sample Size Is Sufficient for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis?—A Rational Argument for a 30-Year Hydrologic Sample Size in Water Resources Management. Water 2018, 10, 430 .

AMA Style

Hongyan Li, Jiaqi Sun, Hongbo Zhang, Jianfeng Zhang, Kwnasue Jung, Joocheol Kim, Yunqing Xuan, Xiaojun Wang, Fengping Li. What Large Sample Size Is Sufficient for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis?—A Rational Argument for a 30-Year Hydrologic Sample Size in Water Resources Management. Water. 2018; 10 (4):430.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hongyan Li; Jiaqi Sun; Hongbo Zhang; Jianfeng Zhang; Kwnasue Jung; Joocheol Kim; Yunqing Xuan; Xiaojun Wang; Fengping Li. 2018. "What Large Sample Size Is Sufficient for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis?—A Rational Argument for a 30-Year Hydrologic Sample Size in Water Resources Management." Water 10, no. 4: 430.

Journal article
Published: 22 February 2018 in Journal of Water and Climate Change
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This article examines data from the Shihuiyao, Nierji, Tongmeng, Jiangqiao, and Dalai hydrological stations in the Nen River basin to understand the hydrological processes occurring in the catchments. Daily precipitation and runoff data from 1955 to 1973 were combined using the smoothed minima trial method to determine the surface runoff concentration time. Then, a genetic algorithm was used to optimize the parameters and obtain an optimal empirical formula. An improved empirical formula was implemented with the genetic algorithm and optimized parameters then incorporated variable average rainfall intensity, correlation between basin area, surface runoff average concentration time, and average rainfall intensity. Finally, an optimized empirical formula (using genetic algorithm to optimize the parameters) and improved empirical formula (incorporating variable average rainfall intensity) were tested by using the daily precipitation and runoff data from the Baishan and Hongshi hydrological stations of the Second Songhua River. The results show that an optimized and improved formula can be used to more accurately estimate hydrologic conditions in the Nen River. Therefore, the improved formula is an efficient method for calculating surface runoff concentration time. Surface runoff concentration time is an important basis for differentiating source waters, which include surface runoff and underground runoff.

ACS Style

Shanshan Bao; Xiaojun Wang; Hongyan Li; Hang Lv; Yuening Li. An empirical approach for computing surface runoff concentration time. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2018, 9, 410 -420.

AMA Style

Shanshan Bao, Xiaojun Wang, Hongyan Li, Hang Lv, Yuening Li. An empirical approach for computing surface runoff concentration time. Journal of Water and Climate Change. 2018; 9 (2):410-420.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Shanshan Bao; Xiaojun Wang; Hongyan Li; Hang Lv; Yuening Li. 2018. "An empirical approach for computing surface runoff concentration time." Journal of Water and Climate Change 9, no. 2: 410-420.

Case report
Published: 01 December 2016 in Water
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Rainstorm weather systems and storm flood characteristics were studied to explore the relationship between the rainstorm weather system, the type of rainstorm, the cause of the flood and the time of occurrence, and some basic characteristics law of storm floods are summarized in the Second Songhua River Basin (Northeastern China). Then, the periodicity of catastrophic years was identified using the commensurability method and is shown to have an average of 11 years. Compared with simple flood forecasting, forecasting of flood-causing precipitation has a longer forecast period, which can gain the requisite time to discharge a reservoir and regain storage capacity, lower the limitation level, and manage the occurrence of flooding.

ACS Style

Hongyan Li; Shanshan Bao; Xiaojun Wang; Hang Lv. Storm Flood Characteristics and Identification of Periodicity for Flood-Causing Rainstorms in the Second Songhua River Basin. Water 2016, 8, 529 .

AMA Style

Hongyan Li, Shanshan Bao, Xiaojun Wang, Hang Lv. Storm Flood Characteristics and Identification of Periodicity for Flood-Causing Rainstorms in the Second Songhua River Basin. Water. 2016; 8 (12):529.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hongyan Li; Shanshan Bao; Xiaojun Wang; Hang Lv. 2016. "Storm Flood Characteristics and Identification of Periodicity for Flood-Causing Rainstorms in the Second Songhua River Basin." Water 8, no. 12: 529.

Journal article
Published: 01 August 2015 in Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
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Sensitivity analysis is a technique for quantitatively analyzing the variation in a dependent variable caused by each independent variable. In this study, a global sensitivity analysis method is proposed that is suitable and effective for multivariable and nonlinear systems. Specifically, sensitivity is defined before nonlinear multipolynomial expansion is conducted according to the Taylor midvalue theorem to intuitively determine nonlinear relationships between the rate of change in the dependent variable and each independent variable. A back-propagation network is also used to determine these relationships. The detailed computational steps and methods for evaluating the results are provided. The proposed method was tested using computer simulation and with an actual hydrological engineering problem. Computer simulations aided the design of experimental plans directed at linear and nonlinear polynomials. The experimental results showed that sensitivity analysis of dependent variables and each independent variable depends on two main characteristics: (1) the relation mapped between dependent variables and each independent variable, and (2) the value of each independent variable. The randomness of the sample, the structure of the back-propagation network, and the parameters did not significantly affect the final sensitivity calculation results. Analysis of the hydrological engineering problem showed that, given antecedent runoff and precipitation, the main factor that affected runoff in the Nenjiang River basin during flood season was antecedent precipitation whereas antecedent runoff was the main factor in the nonflood season. These results were reasonable and consistent with hydrological laws. Based on theoretical experiments and an actual engineering example, this preliminary study demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of this method of global sensitivity analysis in addressing complex problems.

ACS Style

Hongyan Li; Qi Tian; Xiaojun Wang; Ya’Nan Wu. Multivariate Coupling Sensitivity Analysis Method Based on a Back-Propagation Network and Its Application. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 2015, 20, 06014013 .

AMA Style

Hongyan Li, Qi Tian, Xiaojun Wang, Ya’Nan Wu. Multivariate Coupling Sensitivity Analysis Method Based on a Back-Propagation Network and Its Application. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2015; 20 (8):06014013.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hongyan Li; Qi Tian; Xiaojun Wang; Ya’Nan Wu. 2015. "Multivariate Coupling Sensitivity Analysis Method Based on a Back-Propagation Network and Its Application." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 20, no. 8: 06014013.

Journal article
Published: 30 December 2014 in Journal of Water and Climate Change
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Based on the direct correlation method, this paper analyzes the correlation of sunspot number (SSN) and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) ridge index with flood/drought disasters in the Second Songhua River (SSHR) basin, combined with long sequences of SSN, WPSH ridge index, precipitation and other data. Results show that SSN is clearly correlated with flood/drought disasters, what is more, flood years mainly appear in three phases: Solar Maximum Year, years after Solar Maximum Year and Solar Minimum Year. In addition, there is an alternate change of flood/drought with a 10-year cycle. This paper uses the commensurable method to identify the periods of floods and droughts in the study area. According to the commensurable diagram, catastrophic nodes of the future floods or droughts in SSHR basin can be primarily predicted as follows: 2021 will be a flood year, while 2013, 2016 and 2024 will be high flow years; 2012 and 2022 will be dry years, while 2014, 2018 and 2027 will be low flow years. Moreover, forecast accuracy of flood/dry years is higher than the one of high/low flow years. Prediction of flood/drought has an error of ±1 year, which can be tracked and corrected with a scatter diagram.

ACS Style

Li Hong-Yan; Xue Li-Jun; Wang Xiao-Jun. Relationship between solar activity and flood/drought disasters of the Second Songhua river basin. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2014, 6, 578 -585.

AMA Style

Li Hong-Yan, Xue Li-Jun, Wang Xiao-Jun. Relationship between solar activity and flood/drought disasters of the Second Songhua river basin. Journal of Water and Climate Change. 2014; 6 (3):578-585.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Li Hong-Yan; Xue Li-Jun; Wang Xiao-Jun. 2014. "Relationship between solar activity and flood/drought disasters of the Second Songhua river basin." Journal of Water and Climate Change 6, no. 3: 578-585.

Journal article
Published: 26 January 2014 in Journal of Mountain Science
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Based on annual runoff data collected from several hydrological stations in the Nen River Basin from 1956 to 2004, the cumulative filter method, Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze variations in the characteristics and factors influencing runoff. Specifically, the general characteristics list as: The distribution of runoff was found to be uneven within a year, and the annual variation showed an overall decreasing trend. The abrupt change points of runoff were found to be in the early 1960s, middle 1980s and late 1990s. Multiple time scales analysis revealed three time-scale cycles, a long-term cycle of about 20–35 years with a scale center of 25 years, another cycle of about 8–15 years with a scale center of 11 years and a short-term cycle of about 5 years. Based on the Morlet wavelet transform coefficients figure of the 25-year time scale, it is preliminarily estimated that the Nen River Basin will enter a high flow period in 2013. The results obtained using various methods were consistent with each other. The physical causes of the results were also analyzed to confirm their accuracy.

ACS Style

Hong-Yan Li; Yu-Xin Wang; Li-Na Jia; Ya-Nan Wu; Miao Xie. Runoff characteristics of the Nen River Basin and its cause. Journal of Mountain Science 2014, 11, 110 -118.

AMA Style

Hong-Yan Li, Yu-Xin Wang, Li-Na Jia, Ya-Nan Wu, Miao Xie. Runoff characteristics of the Nen River Basin and its cause. Journal of Mountain Science. 2014; 11 (1):110-118.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hong-Yan Li; Yu-Xin Wang; Li-Na Jia; Ya-Nan Wu; Miao Xie. 2014. "Runoff characteristics of the Nen River Basin and its cause." Journal of Mountain Science 11, no. 1: 110-118.

Journal article
Published: 27 May 2012 in Journal of Mountain Science
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In this study, the differences in annual rainstorm changes in the Second Songhua River Basin and the Nenjiang River basin and their causes were compared from the perspective of mountain effects. The following results were drawn: (1) Altitude effect is the primary factor leading to increased rainstorms in the southern source; (2) Slope effect primarily leads to differences of the weather systems in the two sources, and thus cause the difference of the rainstorms; (3) Slope effect is responsible for the greater fluctuation in the observed floods in the southern source. These landform differences eventually lead to the differences in the characteristics of floods in the southern and northern sources. Commensurability method was used to identify the period of rainstorms in the southern and northern sources. The results showed that although rainstorms do not appear at the same time in the two sources they are characteristic of a 10 years’ period in both areas. These results can serve as hydrological references for flood control and long-term flood disaster predictions.

ACS Style

Hongyan Li; Ya’Nan Wu; Xiubin Li. Mountain effect and differences in storm floods between northern and southern sources of the Songhua River Basin. Journal of Mountain Science 2012, 9, 431 -440.

AMA Style

Hongyan Li, Ya’Nan Wu, Xiubin Li. Mountain effect and differences in storm floods between northern and southern sources of the Songhua River Basin. Journal of Mountain Science. 2012; 9 (3):431-440.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hongyan Li; Ya’Nan Wu; Xiubin Li. 2012. "Mountain effect and differences in storm floods between northern and southern sources of the Songhua River Basin." Journal of Mountain Science 9, no. 3: 431-440.

Research article
Published: 19 January 2012 in Hydrological Processes
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Mid‐ to long‐term runoff forecasting is important to China. Forecasting based on physical causes has become the trend of this field, and recognition of key factors is central to recent development. Here, global sensitivity analysis based on back‐propagation arithmetic was used to calculate the sensitivity of up to 24 factors that affect runoff in the Nenjiang River Basin. The following five indices were found to be key factors for mid‐ to long‐term runoff forecasting during flood season: Tibetan Plateau B, index of the strength of the East Asian trough, index of the area of the northern hemisphere polar vortex, zonal circulation index over the Eurasian continent and index of the strength of the subtropical high over the western Pacific. The hydrological climate of the study area and the rainfall–runoff laws were then analysed in conjunction with its geographical position and topographic condition. The rationality of the results can be demonstrated from the positive analysis point of view. The results of this study provide a general method for selection of mid‐ to long‐term runoff forecasting factors based on physical causes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

ACS Style

Hongyan Li; Miao Xie; Shan Jiang. Recognition method for mid- to long-term runoff forecasting factors based on global sensitivity analysis in the Nenjiang River Basin. Hydrological Processes 2012, 26, 2827 -2837.

AMA Style

Hongyan Li, Miao Xie, Shan Jiang. Recognition method for mid- to long-term runoff forecasting factors based on global sensitivity analysis in the Nenjiang River Basin. Hydrological Processes. 2012; 26 (18):2827-2837.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hongyan Li; Miao Xie; Shan Jiang. 2012. "Recognition method for mid- to long-term runoff forecasting factors based on global sensitivity analysis in the Nenjiang River Basin." Hydrological Processes 26, no. 18: 2827-2837.

Journal article
Published: 01 September 2011 in Chinese Geographical Science
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The influence of various factors, mechanisms, and principles affecting runoff are summarized as periodic law, random law, and basin-wide law. Periodic law is restricted by astronomical factors, random law is restricted by atmospheric circulation, and basin-wide law is restricted by underlying surface. The commensurability method was used to identify the almost period law, the wave method was applied to deducing the random law, and the precursor method was applied in order to forecast runoff magnitude for the current year. These three methods can be used to assess each other and to forecast runoff. The system can also be applied to forecasting wet years, normal years and dry years for a particular year as well as forecasting years when floods with similar characteristics of previous floods, can be expected. Based on hydrological climate data of Baishan (1933–2009) and Nierji (1886–2009) in the Songhua River Basin, the forecasting results for 2010 show that it was a wet year in the Baishan Reservoir, similar to the year of 1995; it was a secondary dry year in the Nierji Reservoir, similar to the year of 1980. The actual water inflow into the Baishan Reservoir was 1.178 × 1010 m3 in 2010, which was markedly higher than average inflows, ranking as the second highest in history since records began. The actual water inflow at the Nierji station in 2010 was 9.96 × 109 m3, which was lower than the average over a period of many years. These results indicate a preliminary conclusion that the methods proposed in this paper have been proved to be reasonable and reliable, which will encourage the application of the chief reporter release system for each basin. This system was also used to forecast inflows for 2011, indicating a secondary wet year for the Baishan Reservoir in 2011, similar to that experienced in 1991. A secondary wet year was also forecast for the Nierji station in 2011, similar to that experienced during 1983. According to the nature of influencing factors, mechanisms and forecasting methods and the service objects, mid- to long-term hydrological forecasting can be divided into two classes: mid- to long-term runoff forecasting, and severe floods and droughts forecasting. The former can be applied to quantitative forecasting of runoff, which has important applications for water release schedules. The latter, i.e., qualitative disaster forecasting, is important for flood control and drought relief. Practical methods for forecasting severe droughts and floods are discussed in this paper.

ACS Style

Hongyan Li; Yuxin Wang; Xiubin Li. Mechanism and forecasting methods for severe droughts and floods in Songhua River Basin in China. Chinese Geographical Science 2011, 21, 531 -542.

AMA Style

Hongyan Li, Yuxin Wang, Xiubin Li. Mechanism and forecasting methods for severe droughts and floods in Songhua River Basin in China. Chinese Geographical Science. 2011; 21 (5):531-542.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hongyan Li; Yuxin Wang; Xiubin Li. 2011. "Mechanism and forecasting methods for severe droughts and floods in Songhua River Basin in China." Chinese Geographical Science 21, no. 5: 531-542.