The forecasting of hydrological flows (rainfall depth or rainfall discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Lake Nokoué in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method to enable the reproduction of the future daily water level of Lake Nokoué, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Lake Nokoué up to a forecast horizon of t + 10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t + 3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t + 1 day, t + 2 days, and t + 3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Lake Nokoué basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model’s performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Lake Nokoué basin, the forecast horizon of t + 3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of lake Nokoue in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Lake Nokoue, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

With the impacts of climate change, floods have become increasingly frequent in recent years. Estimating flood hazard thresholds and peak floodwater levels based on flood frequency analysis is crucial for anticipating and preparing for potential flooding events. This study aims to estimate flood hazard thresholds, flood occurrence probabilities, and the return periods of peak floodwater levels in the Nokoue lake watershed in Benin. To achieve this, the standardized water level index, also known as the Flood hazard Index, was calculated to estimate flood hazard thresholds. The three best probability distribution models, Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Generalized Pareto (GPA), were selected to project future floodwater levels using annual maximum daily water level data for extreme floods from 1997 to 2022, obtained from a water gauge site at Nokoue lake. Three goodness-of-fit tests were applied to identify the best-fitting probability distribution model: a Taylor diagram (three-dimensional analysis), a cumulative probability density diagram based on the root-mean-square error (RMSE), and an L-moment diagram (two-dimensional analysis). The Flood hazard Index values ranged from −1.10 to +3.40, with 77.78% showing positive indices and 22.22% showing negative indices. The flood hazard thresholds were classified in ascending order of index values: limited hazards, moderate hazards, significant hazards, and critical hazards. The analysis results indicate that the flood hazard thresholds are defined as follows: below 3.94 m for limited hazards, from 3.94 m up to 4.04 m for moderate hazards, from 4.04 m to 4.14 m for significant hazards, and above 4.14 m for critical hazards. The distribution model analysis showed that the Gumbel distribution best fits the Nokoue lake watershed, with an RMSE of 0.0724, compared to 0.0754 and 0.0761 for the GEV and GPA models, respectively. The annual maximum daily water levels for various non-exhaustive return periods, 2, 3, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, were estimated and compared. The return period for the highest recorded annual maximum daily water levels (4.4 m/day) in the Nokoue lake watershed were calculated to be 12, 15, and 15 years using the Gumbel, GEV, and GPA models, respectively. Quantile analysis revealed that the Gumbel distribution produced overestimated results compared to the GEV and GPA models for return periods exceeding 10 years. Exceptional and very exceptional hydrological events have return periods of 100 and 150 years, corresponding to peak flow levels of 4.95 m and 5.05 m respectively. Finally, the results of this study will be invaluable for flood hazard managers in monitoring flood alerts and for water resource engineers in determining dimensions for designing flood control structures such as spillways, dams, and bridges, thereby improving the management of recurrent flooding events.

The objective of this study was to assess groundwater recharge in the hard-rock central region of Benin so as to compare it with the water needs of the local population. To reach this objective, we applied the Water Table Fluctuation (WTF) method, which requires long-term monitoring of groundwater level fluctuations. Groundwater level time series were used in combination with other data (including time series of surface water discharge and rainfall) to estimate groundwater recharge but also to shed further light on the relationship between surface water and groundwater. The results demonstrated that the minimum inter-annual groundwater recharge amount is about 1.09 × 10⁹ m³, which is enough to cover the basic water needs of the local population. It should be highlighted that in sub-regions where the density of the population is high, water shortage can still occur with the above estimated groundwater recharge amount. This study has also illustrated that when applying the WTF method, sites with a highly uncertain specific yield can be detected.

A flood is defined as a relatively high flow rate or water level in a river or body of water, characterized by an elevation above the norm, leading to the inundation of low-lying areas or bodies of water that are not normally submerged. Almost every year, floods of significant magnitude impact the Nokoue lake basin, endangering nearby populations as they greatly affect the economy and infrastructure development. The unresolved issue of flooding in Nokoue lake necessitates a thorough study and analysis of specific flow models, particularly those concerning the frequency, probability, and scale of flooding. In this context, the present article on threshold determination and flood frequency analysis is highly valuable in mitigating the chronic flooding problem of Nokoue lake. Flood frequency analysis involves interpreting the historical flood data and predicting future probabilities. Annual data on the maximum water level of Nokoue lake over 27 years, from 1997 to 2022, was used for this purpose. The peak water level indices of Nokoue lake and classification were used to characterize flood thresholds. The Gumbel extreme value distribution method, the generalized extreme value distribution method, and the generalized Pareto method were used to test the probability of flood occurrence. The analysis results indicate that flood hazard thresholds are defined as follows: from negative infinity up to below 3.94 m for limited risk, from 3.94 m up to 4.04 m for moderate risk, from above 4.04 m to 4.14 m for significant risk, and from above 4.14 m to 4.95 m for critical risk. Among the flood frequency analysis methods, the Gumbel extreme value distribution is considered more effective and suitable for estimating flood occurrence probabilities and for designing flood control measures for Nokoue lake with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0724, compared to 0.0754 and 0.0761 for the GEV and GPA distributions, respectively. The position and scale parameters (φ; α) of the Gumbel distribution were estimated to be 3.802 and 0.249, respectively. This allows for the calculation of the probability of an extreme water level occurring within a return period in a single day. Thus, the extreme water levels (flood quantiles) associated with return periods of 10, 50, and 100 years, as determined by the Gumbel distribution, are 4.36m, 4.77m, and 4.95m, respectively. Exceptional and very exceptional hydrological events have return periods of 100 and 150 years, corresponding to peak flow levels ranging from 4,95m and 5,05m respectively. These values are of crucial importance for the design of flood prevention structures (infrastructure) intended to mitigate flood risk.