Global seasonal influenza circulation involves a complex interplay between local (seasonality, demography, host immunity) and global factors (international mobility) shaping recurrent epidemic patterns. No studies so far have reconciled the two spatial levels, evaluating the coupling between national epidemics, considering heterogeneous coverage of epidemiological, and virological data, integrating different data sources. We propose a novel-combined approach based on a dynamical model of global influenza spread (GLEAM), integrating high-resolution demographic, and mobility data, and a generalized linear model of phylogeographic diffusion that accounts for time-varying migration rates. Seasonal migration fluxes across countries simulated with GLEAM are tested as phylogeographic predictors to provide model validation and calibration based on genetic data. Seasonal fluxes obtained with a specific transmissibility peak time and recurrent travel outperformed the raw air-transportation predictor, previously considered as optimal indicator of global influenza migration. Influenza A subtypes supported autumn–winter reproductive number as high as 2.25 and an average immunity duration of 2 years. Similar dynamics were preferred by influenza B lineages, with a lower autumn–winter reproductive number. Comparing simulated epidemic profiles against FluNet data offered comparatively limited resolution power. The multiscale approach enables model selection yielding a novel computational framework for describing global influenza dynamics at different scales—local transmission and national epidemics vs. international coupling through mobility and imported cases. Our findings have important implications to improve preparedness against seasonal influenza epidemics. The approach can be generalized to other epidemic contexts, such as emerging disease outbreaks to improve the flexibility and predictive power of modeling.

Papillomaviruses (PVs) are oncogenic and infect the skin and mucosa of various host species. Considering the recent advances in research on PVs using rolling circle amplification (RCA) followed by high-throughput sequencing (HTS), in this study, we aimed to investigate the bovine papillomavirus (BPV) types associated with proliferative lesions in the upper alimentary tract of an affected bull and characterize the viral strains through complete genome sequencing using this strategy. We analyzed the PV strains associated with two hyperplastic esophageal lesions through PCR using degenerate primer pairs and RCA, followed by HTS. HTS of the libraries generated using RCA products provided the whole genome sequence of BPV4 present in squamous papilloma, whereas the complete genome sequence of BPV2 and subgenomic fragments of BPV4 were identified in carcinoma in situ (CIS). For the first time, we have sequenced BPV2 identified from the CIS of the bovine upper alimentary canal. Additionally, RCA followed by HTS allowed characterization of the mixed infection by BPV2 and BPV4 in this lesion. These data reveal that BPV4 is not the only BPV type present in CIS of the esophageal mucous membrane; moreover, a mixed infection caused by BPV2 and BPV4 at the tested anatomical site was demonstrated.

Understanding the dispersal patterns of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineages is crucial to public health decision-making, especially in countries with limited access to viral genomic sequencing. This study provides a comprehensive epidemiological and phylodynamic perspective on SARS-CoV-2 lineage dispersal in Iran from February 2020 to July 2022. We explored the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 combining 1281 genome sequences with spatial data in a phylogeographic framework. Our analyses shed light on multiple international imports seeding subsequent waves and on domestic dispersal dynamics. Lineage B.4 was identified to have been circulating in Iran, 29 days (95% highest probability density interval: 21–47) before non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented. The importation dynamics throughout subsequent waves were primarily driven from the country or region where the variant was first reported and gradually shifted to other regions. At the national level, Tehran was the main source of dissemination across the country. Our study highlights the crucial role of continuous genomic surveillance and international collaboration for future pandemic preparedness and efforts to control viral transmission.

Global seasonal influenza circulation involves a complex interplay between local (seasonality, demography, host immunity) and global factors (international mobility) shaping recurrent epidemic patterns. No studies so far have reconciled the two spatial levels, evaluating the coupling between national epidemics, considering heterogeneous coverage of epidemiological and virological data, integrating different data sources. We propose a novel combined approach based on a dynamical model of global influenza spread (GLEAM), integrating high-resolution demographic and mobility data, and a generalized linear model of phylogeographic diffusion that accounts for time-varying migration rates. Seasonal migration fluxes across global macro-regions simulated with GLEAM are tested as phylogeographic predictors to provide model validation and calibration based on genetic data. Seasonal fluxes obtained with a specific transmissibility peak time and recurrent travel outperformed the raw air-transportation predictor, previously considered as optimal indicator of global influenza migration. Influenza A subtypes supported autumn-winter reproductive number as high as 2.25 and an average immunity duration of 2 years. Similar dynamics were preferred by influenza B lineages, with a lower autumn-winter reproductive number. Comparing simulated epidemic profiles against FluNet data offered comparatively limited resolution power. The multiscale approach enables model selection yielding a novel computational framework for describing global influenza dynamics at different scales - local transmission and national epidemics vs. international coupling through mobility and imported cases. Our findings have important implications to improve preparedness against seasonal influenza epidemics. The approach can be generalized to other epidemic contexts, such as emerging disease out-breaks to improve the flexibility and predictive power of modeling.

Objective: The Brazilian state of Paraná has suffered from COVID-19 effects, understanding predictors of increased mortality in health system interventions prevent hospitalisation of patients. We selected the best models to evaluate the association of death with demographic characteristics, symptoms and comorbidities based on three levels of clinical severity for COVID-19: non-hospitalised, hospitalised non-ICU ward and ICU ward. Design: Cross-sectional survey using binomial mixed models. Setting: COVID-19-positive cases diagnosed by reverse transcription–PCR of municipalities located in Paraná State. Patients: Cases of anonymous datasets of electronic medical records from 1 April 2020 to 31 December 2020. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The best prediction factors were chosen based on criteria after a stepwise analysis using multicollinearity measure, lower Akaike information criterion and goodness-of-fit χ ² tests from univariate to multivariate contexts. Results: Male sex was associated with increased mortality among non-hospitalised patients (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.47 to 2.11) and non-ICU patients (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.43) for symptoms and for comorbidities (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.25, and OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.52, respectively). Higher mortality occurred in patients older than 35 years in non-hospitalised (for symptoms: OR 4.05, 95% CI 1.55 to 10.54; and for comorbidities: OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.24 to 7.27) and in hospitalised over 40 years (for symptoms: OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.08 to 6.87; and for comorbidities: OR 2.66, 95% CI 1.22 to 5.79). Dyspnoea was associated with increased mortality in non-hospitalised (OR 4.14, 95% CI 3.45 to 4.96), non-ICU (OR 2.41, 95% CI 2.04 to 2.84) and ICU (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.72) patients. Neurological disorders (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.35 to 3.46), neoplastic (OR 3.22, 95% CI 1.75 to 5.93) and kidney diseases (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.36 to 3.35) showed the majority of increased mortality for ICU as well in the three levels of severity jointly with heart disease, diabetes and CPOD. Conclusions: These findings highlight the importance of the predictor’s assessment for the implementation of public healthcare policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly to understand how non-pharmaceutical measures could mitigate the virus impact over the population.