The discovery of rapidly mutating (RM) Y-STRs started to move the field of forensic Y-STR analysis from male lineage identification towards male individual identification. Previously, the forensic value of RM Y-STRs for differentiating male relatives was limited due to the modest number of 13 identified RM Y-STRs. Recently, new RM Y-STRs were discovered, with strong expectations for significantly improving male relative differentiation; however, empirical evidence is missing yet. More recently, the genotyping method RMplex for efficiently analyzing 30 Y-STRs with high mutation rates, including all 26 currently known RM Y-STRs, was introduced. Here, we applied RMplex as well as the current state-of-the-art commercial Y-STR kit: Yfiler™ Plus PCR Amplification kit, to several hundreds of DNA-confirmed father-son pairs. Newly established estimates confirmed the high mutation rates of novel and previous RM Y-STRs. By combining current with previous data, we provide updated consensus estimates of mutation rates for all 49 Y-STRs targeted with both methods. Based on RMplex, 42% of 499 father-son pairs were differentiated, while 14% of 530 pairs based on Yfiler™ Plus, and 48% of 499 pairs based on both methods combined. Regarding brothers, RMplex also clearly outperformed Yfiler™ Plus, with differentiation rates of 62% and 33%, respectively. By combining both methods 72.9% of the brothers showed at least one mutation. For unrelated males, both methods achieved a discrimination capacity of 99.8% and a haplotype diversity of 0.999991, since all males had different haplotypes, except for two, perhaps indicating a hidden paternal relationship. Overall, this study underlines the value of RM Y-STRs in general and RMplex in particular for differentiating male relatives highly relevant in forensic genetics. It provides the first empirical evidence on the high value of RMplex for differentiating close male relatives, which for father-son pairs was almost 60% higher than with the initial set of 13 RM Y-STRs and three times higher than with Yfiler™ Plus. Based on our results from closely related males, we expect RMplex to also improve the differentiation of more distantly related males significantly, which needs empirical demonstration in future studies. We encourage the forensic community to apply RMplex in all forensic cases where a match with a commercial Y-STR kit was obtained between the male suspect and the evidence material, or to solely use RMplex in such cases, aiming to find out if the male suspect or any of his male paternal relatives left the evidence material at the crime scene.

Rapidly mutating Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (RM Y-STRs) were suggested for differentiating patrilineally related men as relevant in forensic genetics, anthropological genetics, and genetic genealogy. Empirical data are available for closely related males, while differentiation rates for more distant relatives are scarce. Available RM Y-STR mutation rate estimates are typically based on father–son pair data, while pedigree-based studies for efficient analysis requiring less samples are rare. Here, we present a large-scale pedigree analysis in 9379 pairs of men separated by 1–34 meioses on 30 Y-STRs with increased mutation rates including all known RM Y-STRs (RMplex). For comparison, part of the samples were genotyped at 25 standard Y-STRs mostly with moderate mutation rates (Yfiler Plus). For 43 of the 49 Y-STRs analyzed, pedigree-based mutation rates were similar to previous father–son based estimates, while for six markers significant differences were observed. Male relative differentiation rates from the 30 RMplex Y-STRs were 43%, 84%, 96%, 99%, and 100% for relatives separated by one, four, six, nine, and twelve meioses, respectively, which largely exceeded rates obtained by 25 standard Y-STRs. Machine learning based models for predicting the degree of patrilineal consanguinity yielded accurate and reasonably precise predictions when using RM Y-STRs. Fully matching haplotypes resulted in a 95% confidence interval of 1–6 meioses with RMplex compared to 1–25 with Yfiler Plus. Our comprehensive pedigree study demonstrates the value of RM Y-STRs for differentiating male relatives of various types, in many cases achieving individual identification, thereby overcoming the largest limitation of forensic Y-chromosome analysis.

Rapidly mutating Y chromosomal short tandem repeat markers (RM Y-STRs) -characterized by at least one mutation per 100 generations- are suitable for differentiating both related and unrelated males. The recently introduced multiplex method RMplex allows for the efficient analysis of 30 Y-STRs with increased mutation rates, including all 26 currently known RM Y-STRs. While currently available RM Y-STR mutation rates were established mostly from European individuals, here we applied RMplex to DNA samples of 178 genetically confirmed father-son pairs from East Asia. For several Y-STRs, we found significantly higher mutation rates in Japanese compared to previous estimates. The consequent father-son differentiation rate based on RMplex was significantly higher (52%) in Japanese than previously reported for Europeans (42%), and much higher than with Yfiler Plus in both sample sets (14% and 13%, respectively). Further analysis suggests that the higher mutation and relative differentiation rates in Japanese can in part be explained by on average longer Y-STR alleles relative to Europeans. Moreover, we show that the most striking difference, which was found in DYS712, could be linked to a Y-SNP haplogroup (O1b2-P49) that is common in Japanese and rare in other populations. We encourage the forensic Y-STR community to generate more RMplex data from more population samples of sufficiently large sample size in combination with Y-SNP data to further investigate population effects on mutation and relative differentiation rates. Until more RMplex data from more populations become available, caution shall be placed when applying RM Y-STR mutation rate estimates established in one population, such as Europeans, to forensic casework involving male suspects of paternal origin from other populations, such as non-Europeans.

It has been advocated before that appearance prediction of unknown suspects from crime scene DNA, in the context of Forensic DNA Phenotyping (FDP), is mostly suitable for single source DNA samples, whereas FDP from DNA mixtures to which more than one person contributed, is viewed challenging. With this report on a murder case, we practically demonstrate the feasibility of appearance DNA prediction of an unknown suspect from a mixed crime scene trace, to which the unknown suspect and the known victim had contributed. From this two-person DNA mixture, we successfully predicted eye, hair and skin color of the unknown suspect with the HIrisPlex-S system by applying targeted massively parallel sequencing (MPS). We argue that at least three factors benefit appearance DNA prediction of unknown suspects from mixed crime scene traces, which were met in this murder case: i) SNP genotype knowledge from reference DNA analysis for one of the two persons in the mixture (here the known victim), ii) about equal DNA contributions by both donors to the mixed crime scene stain, and iii) the use of MPS allowing quantitative SNP analysis. Moreover, we show that additionally analyzing animal DNA in this mixed crime scene trace provides further investigative information. We envision that the investigative DNA strategy that we applied here for analyzing a two-person mixed crime scene trace in a murder case, will be applied in the future to more criminal cases with two-person DNA mixtures, for instance sexual assault cases.