In this article, we build a statistical model able to predict the reliability of the system based on a dataset. Our objective is double. On the one hand, we aim at constructing a function that classifies the system in one of the two categories (operative or failed) based on the knowledge of components states. On the other hand, we present a statistical test to decide the order of importance of components in terms of the effect each one has on the system performance. We present a supervised algorithm involving isotonic smooth logistic regression and cross-validation techniques. Our method is completely data-driven not lying in any parametric assumptions. The method is illustrated through an extensive simulation study.

Studying the reliability of complex systems using machine learning techniques involves facing a series of technical and practical challenges, ranging from the intrinsic nature of the system and data to the difficulties in modeling and effectively deploying models in real-world scenarios. This study compares the effectiveness of classical statistical techniques and machine learning methods for improving complex system analysis in reliability assessments. Our goal is to show that in many practical applications, traditional statistical algorithms frequently produce more accurate and interpretable results compared with black-box machine learning methods. The evaluation is conducted using both real-world data and simulated scenarios. We report the results obtained from statistical modeling algorithms, as well as from machine learning methods including neural networks, K-nearest neighbors, and random forests.