The positive effect of thinning on individual tree growth is well known, but the subsequent growth dynamics of individual trees over a rotation is relatively unknown, even though this is critical for interpreting actual thinning effects. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to investigate the thinning response of individual tree growth dynamics of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) over rotation using an individual tree growth model. We used data from an operational site to use as input to the Mixedwood Growth Model, an individual tree growth model, to simulate tree growth throughout the rotation. Overall, we found that thinning increased the absolute growth of individual trees and reduced the growth heterogeneity throughout the rotation. Combining pre-commercial thinning prior to commercial thinning provided maximum growth and less growth variability in individual trees. The positive effect of thinning was immediate and declined with time since thinning with most of the responses occurred within the first 10–15 years of thinning.

Alberta’s forest industry is predicted to be impacted by a medium-term decline in timber supply. Intensive silviculture tools, such as pre-commercial thinning, have been shown to increase individual tree growth, shorten rotation lengths, and improve stand merchantability in important commercial species such as lodgepole pine. However, lodgepole pine stands are susceptible to western gall rust infections, and thinning at an early stage may increase infection rates. This study collected tree and stand level data from 33 operational harvest origin lodgepole pine stands consisting of 11 stands thinned at age 17–19 years (PCT_18), 11 stands thinned at age 23–25 (PCT_24), and 11 unthinned stands. Approximately 40 years after pre-commercial thinning, merchantable volume is similar in all stands but thinned stands, regardless of timing, had greater individual tree size (~15% higher) compared to unthinned stands. Pre-commercially thinned stands also had a higher potential for commercial thinning since they have lower variability in tree size and longer live crown lengths. In addition, delayed thinning (PCT_24) reduced western gall rust infections and the severity of infections compared to both PCT_18 and unthinned stands. In conclusion, pre-commercial thinning should be considered for lodgepole pine stands in order to address timber supply issues in Alberta.