Managing forests has been demonstrated to be an efficient strategy for fragmenting fuels and for reducing fire spread rates and severity. However, large-scale analyses to examine operational aspects of implementing different forest management scenarios to meet fire governance objectives are nonexistent for many Mediterranean countries. In this study we described an optimization framework to build forest management scenarios that leverages fire simulation, forest management, and tradeoff analyses for forest areas in Macedonia, Greece. We demonstrated the framework to evaluate five forest management priorities aimed at (1) protection of developed areas, (2) optimized commercial timber harvests, (3) protection of ecosystem services, (4) fire resilience, and (5) reducing suppression difficulty. Results revealed that by managing approximately 33,000 ha across all lands in different allocations of 100 projects, the area that accounted for 16% of the wildfire exposure to developed areas was treated while harvesting 2.5% of total wood volume. The treatments also reduced fuels on the area that are responsible for 3% of the potential fire impacts to sites with important ecosystem services, while suppression difficulty and wildfire transmission to protected areas attainment was 4.5% and 16%, respectively. We also tested the performance of multiple forest district management priorities when applying a proposed four-year fuel treatment plan that targeted achieving high levels of attainment by treating less area but strategically selected lands. Sharp management tradeoffs were observed among all management priorities, especially for harvest production compared with suppression difficulty, the protection of developed areas, and wildfire exposure to protected areas.

Predicting where the next large-scale wildfire event will occur can help fire management agencies better prepare for taking preventive actions and improving suppression efficiency. Wildfire simulations can be useful in estimating the spread and behavior of potential future fires by several available algorithms. The uncertainty of ignition location and weather data influencing fire propagation requires a stochastic approach integrated with fire simulations. In addition, scarcity of required spatial data in different fire-prone European regions limits the creation of fire simulation outputs. In this study we provide a framework for processing and creating spatial layers and descriptive data from open-access international and national databases for use in Monte Carlo fire simulations with the Minimum Travel Time fire spread algorithm, targeted to assess cross-boundary wildfire propagation and community exposure for a large-scale case study area (Macedonia, Greece). We simulated over 300,000 fires, each independently modelled with constant weather conditions from a randomly chosen simulation scenario derived from historical weather data. Simulations generated fire perimeters and raster estimates of annual burn probability and conditional flame length. Results were used to estimate community exposure by intersecting simulated fire perimeters with community polygons. We found potential ignitions can grow large enough to reach communities across 27% of the study area and identified the top-50 most exposed communities and the sources of their exposure. The proposed framework can guide efforts in European regions to prioritize fuel management activities in order to reduce wildfire risk.

Endemic palm groves of the Phoenix genus in Europe form vital natural and semi-natural ecosystems with exceptional ecological and socio-economic significance. These unique habitats are found only in Spain (Phoenix canariensis) and Greece (P. theophrasti). Their rarity has led to their inclusion in Annex I of the EU Directive 92/43 and their designation as Priority Habitat 9370*, “Palm groves of Phoenix,” with just 53 Natura 2000 (N2K) sites allocated for their conservation at the EU level.Both species, face similar conservation challenges. Key threats include the impacts of climate change, pest infestations, and Invasive Alien Species (IAS). Additionally, region-specific issues arise from human activities: in Gran Canaria, past poor practices have led to hybridization with P. dactylifera, while in Crete, overgrazing and tourism pressures are primary concerns. Hybridization and pest control in Crete are currently managed with a precautionary approach.The overarching goal of the LIFE Phoenix project is to enhance the conservation status of Priority Habitat 9370* in by implementing a comprehensive strategy. This includes mitigating major threats such as droughts, wildfires, overgrazing, visitor pressure, and hybridization; restoring natural palm groves through proper management techniques; preventing and controlling pests and IAS; promoting reforestation; and fostering environmental governance and awareness.

Mount Athos (MA) is a unique cultural and natural heritage site, characterized by high biodiversity, extensive forest cover, and significant historical value. Its ecological integrity is increasingly threatened by climate change (CC) due to factors such as geographic isolation, widespread chestnut monocultures, fragmented forest governance, and limited water resources. With each of the 20 self-governed monasteries managing its own forest independently, the absence of coordinated environmental planning heightens the area's vulnerability to climate-induced risks, particularly wildfires, drought, and pest outbreaks.This project aims to develop a strategic and integrated environmental management framework for MA, with a dual focus on climate change adaptation and mitigation. Core objectives include reducing susceptibility to CC-related disturbances, enhancing ecosystem resilience, implementing adaptation and carbon sequestration strategies, and modeling the impacts of these practices on wildfire behavior and carbon dynamics. The initiative also seeks to establish long-term institutional mechanisms for environmental governance, tailored to the unique administrative and spiritual context of MA.By combining scientific planning with local engagement, the project contributes to safeguarding MA’s environmental and cultural legacy. Furthermore, it will promote knowledge exchange within the monastic community and across the EU, serving as a model for sustainable management in similarly sensitive and self-governed landscapes.