Machine learning (ML) has gained significant attention for unraveling the complex, nonlinear relationships between soil moisture (SM) and various predictive variables, including remote sensing (RS; reflectance, brightness temperature, backscatter coefficients) and biophysical (topographic, soil, vegetation, and weather) variables. We reviewed the literature to extract and synthesize ML algorithms, reliable input features, and challenges in SM estimation using RS data. We analyzed results from 144 articles published from 2010 to 2024. Random forest (40 out of 67 studies), support vector regressor (13 out of 39 studies), and artificial neural networks (12 out of 27 studies) often outperformed other algorithms to estimate SM using RS datasets. Multi-source RS data often outperformed single-source data in SM estimation. Satellite-derived features, such as vegetation indices and backscattering coefficients, provided critical information on surface SM (SSM) variability to estimate SSM. For root zone SM estimation, soil properties and SSM generally were more reliable predictors than surface information derived solely from RS. Two recent advances—the use of semi-empirical models and L-band SAR to mitigate vegetation effects, and transfer learning to improve model transferability—have shown promise in addressing key challenges in SM estimation.

Our study aims to understand how the hydrological cycle is affected by climate change in river basins. This study focused on the Karnali River Basin (KRB) to examine the impact of extreme weather events like floods and heat waves on water security and sustainable environmental management. Our research incorporates precipitation and temperature projections from ten Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We applied thirteen statistical bias correction methods for precipitation and nine for temperatures to make future precipitation and temperature trend projections. The research study also utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model at multi-sites to estimate future streamflow under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of SSP245 and SSP585. Additionally, the Web-based Hydrograph Analysis Tool (WHAT) was used to distinguish between baseflow and streamflow. Our findings, based on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME), indicate that precipitation will increase by 7.79–16.25% under SSP245 (9.43–27.47% under SSP585) and maximum temperatures will rise at rates of 0.018, 0.048, and 0.064 °C/yr under SSP245 (0.022, 0.066, and 0.119 °C/yr under SSP585). We also anticipate that minimum temperatures will increase at rates of 0.049, 0.08, and 0.97 °C/yr under SSP245 (0.057, 0.115, and 0.187 °C/yr under SSP585) for near, mid, and far future periods, respectively. Our research predicts an increase in river discharge in the KRB by 27.12% to 54.88% under SSP245 and 45.4% to 93.3% under SSP585 in different future periods. Our finding also showed that the expected minimum monthly baseflow in future periods will occur earlier than in the historical period. Our study emphasizes the need for sustainable and adaptive management strategies to address the effects of climate change on water security in the KRB. By providing detailed insights into future hydrological conditions, this research serves as a critical resource for policymakers and stakeholders, facilitating informed decision-making for the sustainable management of water resources in the face of climate change.

Understanding and anticipating the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes is crucial for sustainable water resource management. This study investigates the projected alterations in streamflow within the Tamor River Basin, Nepal, under changing climatic conditions, utilizing the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Future climatic variables, including precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperature, were assessed for the near (2022–2047), mid (2048–2073), and far future (2074–2100) periods under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): SSP245 and SSP585. Bias-corrected outputs from coupled model intercomparison project, phase 6 (CMIP6) models were integrated into the SWAT model to simulate the basin's hydrological response. Results indicate that, under the SSP245 scenario, annual average maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to rise by ~ 0.046 °C and 0.050 °C, respectively, with a 12.70% increase in precipitation. Similarly, the SSP585 scenario predicts temperature increases of 0.063 °C and 0.085 °C, alongside an 11.90% rise in precipitation. These climatic changes are projected to result in a significant increase in streamflow, with an estimated rise up to 20% by the end of the twenty-first century. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders, facilitating informed decision-making for the sustainable management of water resources in the face of climate change.