The hazard of ice accretion on overhead power circuits is significant, yet predicting it is very difficult. The key reason lies in the shortage of sufficient observational data on ice thickness, and previous studies have also rarely taken into account micro-terrain and micro-meteorological conditions. In response to the challenge of simulating overhead line icing, this study introduces a new icing simulation technique that fully considers the effects of micro-terrain and micro-meteorology. For this technique, typical micro-terrains of overhead line areas are first identified by using high-resolution elevation data, and the icing thickness characteristics in different micro-terrains are analyzed. Subsequently, icing thickness simulations for different micro-terrains are conducted. The results indicate that during the icing process, the icing thickness ranges from 5 mm to 8 mm under three types of micro-terrain, namely, “uplift type”, “alpine drainage divide type” and “canyon wind channel type”, whereas the icing thickness is less than 5 mm in the “flat type” of micro-terrain. This finding suggests that the first three micro-terrain types facilitate icing on overhead transmission lines due to the condensation and uplifting effects of water vapor caused by terrain. However, flat terrain lacks the conditions necessary for water vapor accumulation and thus is not easy to form icing. The results are advantageous for the deployment of overhead power lines in intricate terrain. It is advisable to steer clear of regions susceptible to icing, and endeavor to install circuits in level territories whenever feasible. In addition, the simulated icing thickness under different terrains is in good agreement with the observations. Specifically, the correlation coefficient between simulated and observed icing thickness is significant at the 0.99 confidence level, and the deviations between them are within 0.5 mm. This signifies that the forecasting methodologies employed are dependable and possess significant implications as a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.

Wire icing is a prevalent challenge in both industrial and scientific domains, and it is widely acknowledged that terrain and water vapor are significant contributing factors in the formation of wire icing. Consequently, the identification of terrains that are prone to inducing water vapor uplift serves as the scientific foundation for predicting ice accumulation on power lines. Yunnan Province, a mountainous province in China, features a large elevation difference. In winter, this region is prone to wire, pole and tower icing, which can affect power transmission and cause economic and property losses. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct research on the identification of typical terrain patterns in this region. In previous terrain studies, more attention has been focused on slope and aspect, watershed analysis and terrain profile analysis. When the purpose of the terrain identification is to analyze which terrains are more prone to collecting water vapor, we hope to obtain slightly larger terrain blocks and analyze the water vapor sources for different terrains in order to identify typical terrains that are conducive to icing formation. A new technology for identifying terrain patterns based on the K-means clustering method is proposed in this study to explore the typical terrain in Yunnan province. Additionally, the influences of different terrain patterns on water vapor movement are also analyzed. The results indicate that the typical terrains in Yunnan are “Valley-Air Channel”, “Topographic Uplifting”, “Ravine”, “Mountain Pass” and “Alpine Divide” patterns. The results show that the identified typical terrain is consistent with observations from satellite images, which verifies the effectiveness of this identification method. Among these five typical terrains, the “Valley-Air Channel”, the “Topographic Uplifting” and the “Mountain Pass” terrains are prone to collecting water vapor and forming ice cover. The “Alpine Divide” terrain is also prone to accumulating water vapor on both sides to form ice cover. The identified typical terrain demonstrates that typical terrain patterns near water bodies are more prone to the occurrence of wire, pole and tower icing because these areas are abundant in water vapor, and the extensive water vapor is easily condensed under the effects of terrain uplifting and cooling. In these key areas, existing wires and towers, as well as those to be constructed in the future, deserve our special attention.

Wire icing seriously threatens the safety and reliability of power systems. Strengthening the simulation study of icing thickness is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as the adjustment of power system operation strategies. The meteorological elements, including air temperature, precipitation and wind speed, are the key factors affecting wire icing. In this study, the meteorological elements related to icing thickness are obtained by numerical models, and the relationship between these elements and icing thickness observations is established to develop a model for simulating icing thickness. The model is applied to study typical icing in Yunnan Province, China. The results indicate that the deviation of the simulated icing thickness is about 2 mm, smaller than that from the traditional model. Batch experiments demonstrate that the new model developed in this research is applicable to the vast majority of 238 observation stations in Yunnan Province for icing thickness simulation, and the method can yield lower simulation deviations.

As global warming intensifies, both the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events have undergone significant changes, leading to a widespread manifestation of nonstationary ch...

Many studies have confirmed that the complexity of a time sequence is closely related to its predictability, but few studies have proposed methods to reduce the time sequence complexity, which is the key to improving its predictability. This study analyzes the complexity reduction method of observed time sequences based on wind speed data. Five sampling methods, namely the random method, average method, sequential method, max method and min method, are used to obtain a new time sequence with a low resolution from a high resolution time sequence. The ideal time sequences constructed by mathematical functions and the observed wind speed time sequences are studied. The results show that the complexity of ideal time series of periodic sequences, chaotic sequences and random sequences increases in turn, and the complexity is expressed by the approximate entropy (ApEn) exponent. Furthermore, the complexity of the observed wind speed is closer to the complexity of a random sequence, which indicates that the wind speed sequence is not easy to predict. In addition, the complexity of sub-time series change with different sampling methods. The complexity of sub-time series obtained by the average method is the lowest, which indicates that the average method can reduce the complexity of observed data effectively. Therefore, the complexity of sub-time series sampled from the high-resolution wind speed data is reduced by using the average method. The method that can reduce the complexity of wind speed substantially will help to choose the appropriate wind speed data, thus improving the predictability.

This paper proposes a novel method for predicting icing on overhead contact lines by integrating physical modeling with Transformer-based deep learning, addressing the limitations of traditional meteorological models in complex weather conditions and terrains. The method combines physical factors such as meteorological data (e.g., temperature, humidity, wind speed) and topographic features to construct a physical model for initial predictions, while leveraging the Transformer model's robust capability in processing time-series data to capture the nonlinear dynamics of the icing process. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms traditional single meteorological models in prediction accuracy across various weather conditions, particularly excelling in extreme weather and complex terrain scenarios. This approach provides reliable technical support for disaster prevention, mitigation, and early warning systems in the transportation sector, offering substantial practical value for engineering applications.