The frequency of forest fires worldwide has increased recently due to climate change, leading to severe and widespread damage. In this study, we investigate potential changes in the fire susceptibility of areas in South Korea arising from climate change. We constructed a dataset of large-scale forest fires from the past decade and employed it in machine learning models that integrate climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental variables to assess the risk of forest fires. According to the results of these models, the eastern region is identified as highly vulnerable to forest fires during the baseline period, while the western region is classified as relatively safe. However, in the future, certain areas along the western coast are predicted to become more susceptible to forest fires. Consequently, as climate change continues, the risk of domestic forest fires is expected to increase, leading to the need for proactive prevention measures and careful management. This study contributes to the understanding of forest fire occurrences under diverse climate scenarios.
Mangroves, as a key component of the blue-carbon ecosystem, have exceptional carbon sequestration capacity and are mainly distributed in tropical coastal regions. In the Solomon Islands, ongoing degradation of mangrove forests, primarily due to land conversion and timber exploitation, highlights an urgent need for high-resolution spatial data to inform effective conservation strategies. The present study introduces an efficient and accurate methodology for mapping mangrove habitats and prioritizing protection areas utilizing open-source satellite imagery and datasets available through the Google Earth Engine platform in conjunction with a U-Net deep learning algorithm. The model demonstrates high performance, achieving an F1-score of 0.834 and an overall accuracy of 0.96, in identifying mangrove distributions. The total mangrove area in the Solomon Islands is estimated to be approximately 71,348.27 hectares, accounting for about 2.47% of the national territory. Furthermore, based on the mapped mangrove habitats, an optimized hotspot analysis is performed to identify regions characterized by high-density mangrove distribution. By incorporating spatial variables such as distance from roads and urban centers, along with mangrove area, this study proposes priority mangrove protection areas. These results underscore the potential for using openly accessible satellite data to enhance the precision of mangrove conservation strategies in data-limited settings. This approach can effectively support coastal resource management and contribute to broader climate change mitigation strategies.
Mangrove forests are vital ecosystems with the highest global carbon absorption capacity, playing a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, their conservation and management are essential. However, as mangroves are primarily found in tropical regions, frequent cloud cover and limited accessibility pose significant challenges to effective monitoring using optical satellite imagery. In addition, many developing countries with extensive mangrove coverage face challenges in conducting precise monitoring due to limited technological infrastructure. To overcome these limitations, this study integrated open-access synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data with optical imagery to enhance the classification accuracy of mangrove forests in the Bali Denpasar–Badung region. The Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 datasets were used, and the U-Net deep learning model was employed for training and classification. A digital elevation model (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) was applied to exclude areas higher than 10 m above sea level, thereby improving the classification accuracy. Additionally, a time-series analysis was performed to assess changes in the mangrove distribution over the past decade, revealing a consistent increase in mangrove extent in the study area. The classification performance was evaluated using a confusion matrix, demonstrating that the combined SAR-optical model outperformed single-source models across all key metrics including precision, accuracy, recall, and F1-score. The findings highlight the effectiveness of integrating SAR and optical data for capturing the complex ecological and geographical characteristics of mangrove forests. Notably, SAR imagery, which is resistant to cloud cover, shows considerable potential for independent application in tropical mangrove monitoring, warranting further research to explore its capabilities in greater depth.
Climate change has been transforming forest ecosystems globally, affecting the sustainability of conventional forest management practices. This study investigates the suitable forestation area (SFA) for Larix kaempferi and Chamaecyparis obtusa and their growth potential in South Korea under various climate change scenarios. Using species distribution models (SDMs) based on machine learning ensembles, we analyzed potential spatial shifts in the climatic suitability for these species. Growth models based on field data were also developed to evaluate growth variation between Köppen–Geiger climatic zones. The results indicate a substantial reduction in the SFA for L. kaempferi, with its habitat range confined to high-altitude regions due to rising temperatures. In contrast, the forestation potential for C. obtusa is predicted to expand nationwide, particularly in inland areas, under climate change scenarios. However, extreme increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeding 600 ppm may inhibit growth, highlighting the need for the development of adaptive management strategies. This study provides useful information for climate-resilient forestation planning by combining growth-weighted suitability indices with projected habitat shifts. These findings emphasize the importance of prioritizing high-altitude conservation zones for L. kaempferi and employing C. obtusa for inland afforestation as a means to ensure sustainable forest management and carbon neutrality objectives.