The refereed literature contains few studies that analyze life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) methodologies together for lignocellulosic bioenergy systems, using a stochastic modeling approach. This study seeks to address this gap by developing an integrated framework to quantify the environmental and financial impacts of producing and delivering shrub willow in the Northeastern United States. This study analyses four different scenarios from a combination of two different initial land cover types (grassland, cropland) prior to willow establishment, and two harvesting conditions (leaf-on, leaf-off). Monte Carlo simulations were performed to quantify the uncertainty of the results based on a range of financial, logistical, and biophysical variable input parameters (e.g., land rental rates, transportation distance, biomass yield, etc.). Growing willow biomass on croplands resulted in net negative GHG emissions for both leaf on and leaf off scenarios for the baseline. The GHG emissions were lowest for the leaf-off harvest on cropland (−172.50 kg CO_2eq Mg⁻¹); this scenario also had the lowest MSP ($76.41 Mg⁻¹). The baseline grassland scenario with leaf-on harvest, results in the highest net GHG emissions (44.83 kg CO_2eq Mg⁻¹) and greatest MSP ($92.97 Mg⁻¹). The results of this analysis provide the bioenergy field and other interested stakeholders with both environmental and financial trade-offs of willow biomass to permit informed decisions about the future expansion of willow fields in the landscape, which have the potential to contribute to GHG reduction targets and conversion into fuels, energy, or bioproducts for carbon sequestration and financial benefits.

New York State (NYS) has set strict greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets across all sectors of its economy, including the heating sector. This study examines the financial value and environmental impacts of the residential space heating sector in NYS under different GHG abatement options by comparing the existing natural gas heating pathway with three potential GHG abatement pathways: renewable natural gas (RNG), hydrogen blended into RNG, and air-source heat pumps (ASHPs). These pathways are analyzed via a comparative net present value (NPV) framework from 2022 to 2042 with the emission reduction represented as a revenue stream that serves as a function of the social cost of GHGs. The investment timing of each of these pathways is also accounted for to reflect the pathways’ varying deployment timelines. The ASHP pathway with a 10% financial discount rate and a 2% social cost of the GHG discount rate achieves the lowest NPV. The RNG pathway achieves the highest NPV. A sensitivity analysis determines the impact of key factors on the NPV results. This study aims to inform policymakers, homeowners, and stakeholders of the potential benefits and costs of each of the four pathways to aid them in their decision-making process.

The Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) supplied approximately 25% of New York City and the surrounding area’s electricity. As of April 2021, the nuclear power plant has been shut down, creating the need for other energy sources to meet the demand. This scoping analysis study examined the ability of different renewable pathways (solar photovoltaic (PV), willow biomass, onshore wind, and two combinations of these) to replicate the IPEC’s electricity generation profile. Five renewable electricity generation supply profiles were developed and analyzed from monthly and seasonal perspectives. The timing and alignment of the different generation supply profiles relative to that of IPEC were analyzed. Productivity in MWh hectare⁻¹ year⁻¹ and economic feasibility of the renewable electricity pathway scenarios were assessed. This study identified the solar PV pathway as the most efficient in terms of electricity land productivity at 731.9 MWh hectare⁻¹ year⁻¹, while the willow biomass pathway was the least efficient at 15.2 MWh hectare⁻¹ year⁻¹. However, in terms of net electricity output to the grid, the solar PV pathway was the least productive at 137,610 MWh/year, while the onshore wind with willow biomass pathway produced the highest net output at 894,801 MWh/year. These findings are important at a time when policymakers are considering or implementing plans to phase out nuclear power in favor of renewable electricity.